tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-192639032024-03-12T02:46:40.098-05:00Laurence Hunt's BlogWe live in a complex, interactive, and increasingly borderless world in which our lives are impacted more than ever before by events occurring outside the sphere of our personal influence. I wish to establish a forum for the examination of these trends by presenting ideas which are central to the problem, disruptive of conventional thought, or conducive to leisure and conviviality.Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.comBlogger336125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-15623128868407211452021-12-21T12:36:00.007-06:002022-06-26T18:50:27.686-05:00MAPPING A CONSTRUCTIVE FUTURE HISTORY FOR HUMANITY, ALONG WITH ALL LIFE, ABOARD SPACESHIP EARTH<h3 style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Dedicated to the life and work of Buckminster Fuller</b><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></h3><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2lnG8GfZgxNU-fAZOWGAl4JUcAJp-QAU2p78IiCC7MakFtW_r0cIn-BGwHpYzyIUK0dJ1kh1sAgYoL8ZT7w0CL0WHaD4UA31O3HYEoY4iEwS4NRV8ALY-mUFsE-VIjeZWaEJaWw/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="327" data-original-width="620" height="169" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2lnG8GfZgxNU-fAZOWGAl4JUcAJp-QAU2p78IiCC7MakFtW_r0cIn-BGwHpYzyIUK0dJ1kh1sAgYoL8ZT7w0CL0WHaD4UA31O3HYEoY4iEwS4NRV8ALY-mUFsE-VIjeZWaEJaWw/" width="320" /></a></span></div><p></p>
<h3 style="text-align: center;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial;">22 August 2021 (continuously updated)</span></b></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">I foresee strikingly positive developments for humans and
for life on planet Earth, based on the following trends:</span></p>
<ol start="1" style="margin-top: 0in;" type="1">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l7 level1 lfo7;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Fusion power<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l7 level1 lfo7;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Recycling/reuse<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l7 level1 lfo7;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Carbon recapture & planetary
cooling<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l7 level1 lfo7;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Habitat restoration<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l7 level1 lfo7;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Robotics<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l7 level1 lfo7;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Biotechnology<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l7 level1 lfo7;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Artificial intelligence<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l7 level1 lfo7;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Healthier lifestyles<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l7 level1 lfo7;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Expansion into space
beyond earth<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l7 level1 lfo7;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Safety technologies and preventative health<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l7 level1 lfo7;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Private property and human
rights/security protection<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l7 level1 lfo7;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Free markets, balanced budgets, creativity and entrepreneurial capitalism<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l7 level1 lfo7;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Cooperation, Shared Goals and Accomplishing More</span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l7 level1 lfo7;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Paradoxes of prosperity and purpose | Subsistence as an alternative<o:p></o:p></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l7 level1 lfo7;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ephemeralization</span></li></ol>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Let’s review these emerging trends one-by-one:</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Fusion Power<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Fusion power is abundant and plentiful, and is the primary
source of energy virtually everywhere in the universe. Rather than employing
low-density inputs, it releases vast amounts of energy from vanishingly small
amounts of fuel. Unlike other energy technologies, the requirement to mine
resources to support fusion power is minimal, as fusion’s primary resource
utilization requirement is for plant construction, not for fuel supply.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">I am aware of over 34 different and quite diverse fusion
power development initiatives around the world. Most are government-funded, but
many are private. Interestingly, carbon energy companies appear now to be
investing increasingly in a fusion-powered future, a trend which I expect to
continue.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">The fusion power initiative I currently find most promising
is that of HB11 Energy. This Australian company is built on a half-century of
research by Dr. Heinrich Hora, who long ago predicted that lasers would at some
point be able to combine hydrogen and boron 11 atoms into three helium nuclei
so rapidly that electricity (positively-charged helium nuclei and electrons) would be essentially
the only output of the fusion reaction.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">That is, HB11 Energy uses Nobel Prize-winning chirped pulse
amplified lasers (now an existing and proven technology) to produce sufficient
ponderomotive force to produce an instantaneous fusion reaction that does not
release heat or radioactivity, and that, of course, is also carbon-free.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Burning carbon will quickly be seen as an outmoded
technology. The same applies to nuclear fission, which we will certainly gradually
phase out as fusion-based technologies advance. We will continue to use nuclear
fission only for narrowly specialized purposes (e.g., medical isotopes), and we
will begin to use carbon only to build things. Burning carbon and nuclear fuel,
both, will soon become entirely unthinkable and be remembered as primitive.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Carbon, however, has a bright future. It will soon be
employed only constructively versus destructively. Carbon is required for the
synthesis of all organic molecules, and is also the backbone of such high-tech
materials as graphene, Buckminsterfullerene, etc. Note that there is no need to
oppose or block the development of our present carbon-burning infrastructure,
which serves many needs well. We don't have to expend any effort to “shut down”
the carbon-based energy economy. Rather, we will benefit by expediting the
development of fusion power to make carbon burning (and nuclear fission) obsolete.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Obviously, low density, non-carbon energy sources will also
have important applications, but fusion will power the grid, long distance space
travel, and other high energy-demand human activities.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Will infinite, low-cost energy eliminate poverty? If we use
it to advance human freedom and prosperity, which I believe we can, then my
answer is a qualified “yes, we can, and so we should!”</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Recycling/Reuse<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">With the advent of fusion power, we will possess the energy required
to gather, reprocess and reuse essentially all materials presently employed by
humans. With robots, artificial intelligence and other machine technologies, we
will be able to carry out sorting at microscopic levels. Time and energy costs
will be unimportant considerations. For materials that can’t be sorted
microscopically, then fusion power can be used to heat and separate materials
elementally, though heating will be a methodology of last resort – we still
require a cooler planet.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Recycling and reuse imply that virtually all mining
activities will be substantially scaled down, and some will be eliminated. This
will aid the cause of habitat restoration. Note that mining for new materials,
for example, rare earths, may continue or even increase, due to new and emerging technologies.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Carbon Recapture & Planetary Cooling<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Some who oppose carbon recapture and combatting global
warming argue that much higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are normal in
Earth’s geological history, and thus that our planet “already knows how” to have
a more carbon-rich atmosphere and/or to be hotter than it is now, which is entirely
true. Many in this school also argue against efforts to cool the planet. The “anti
global-cooling” argument is many faceted, and more complex than I wish to summarize
here.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">My argument here, by way of contrast, is that lower
atmospheric carbon levels (and lower global temperatures), though relatively uncommon
in our planet’s geological history, are supportive of far greater ecological
diversity. Thus, I am making a value judgement in favour of the ecological
diversity that comes part and parcel with a relatively cool Planet Earth, a
principle strongly supported by multiple branches of biological, geological and
other sciences.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">If Planet Earth can correctly be thought of as a
“spaceship,” as originally argued by Buckminster Fuller, then we will need to
define some operating parameters for our live-aboard spacecraft. Maximum
ecological diversity provides us protection against multiple threats and
imbalances, including communicable diseases, geological disruptions, human
conflict, etc.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Of course, plants recapture carbon by their very nature,
returning it primarily to the soil. Habitat restoration (below) will thus aid
significantly in the sequestration of carbon from the atmosphere. A large part
of recapturing carbon will thus prove to be exactly the same thing as restoring
habitats to prior and/or more diverse states.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Additionally, carbon can be recovered from the atmosphere (or
from human environments and activities) by multiple human technologies
currently in development. A particularly promising method returns carbon to the
oceans as carbonate, which will also aid in reducing ocean acidity as well as overheating.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Carbon recapture can be powered by a mix of technologies,
including fusion, solar, wind, tidal and other noncarbon power sources. The use
of multiple power sources will help to accelerate the pace of development of
carbon recapture initiatives.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Habitat Restoration<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">David Attenborough has been particularly eloquent in arguing
for and summarizing the benefits of habitat restoration. A limited list of others
who have spoken to this purpose include Joseph Kittredge, Masanobu Fukuoka,
Bill Mollison, Paul Ehrlich, John Muir, Louis Bromfield, Helen & Scott
Nearing, and many, many more.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Despite their complexity and obvious imperfections, natural
habitats that have developed through untold millennia of natural selection have
extensive benefits for all life forms on our planet, particularly in that diverse
species can thrive in balance with other species without their numbers growing
overly large or small.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Restored and/or intact habitats are so generative that they
can compensate for quite large areas that have been disrupted by human
activity, thereby preserving the health and wealth not only of humans, but of
all species. Robotics, powered by fusion energy, can aid us not only in
restoring habitats (replanting, rebalancing, etc.), but also in protecting them
from disease, disaster and human disruption through non-violent surveillance
and intervention, which will increasingly be accomplished by technological
means. Poaching, burning, unlawful harvesting, etc. can be prevented without
violence through multiple emerging robotic and intelligent technologies.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">In turn, intact habitats can be harvested in a balanced
manner to support human health and prosperity in combination with ecological balance,
as David Attenborough has extensively documented.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">A note on human
population:</b> There is ample emerging evidence that human population numbers
tend to stabilize or even decline under conditions of prosperity. Advancing
prosperity and full economic participation by all humans will do much to
regulate human population. This natural balance may or may not be sufficient to
permit restoration of habitats.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">The restriction of human reproductive choice can probably
safely be considered a last option in pursuing habitat restoration. For
example, human cities can be built more compactly, with less sprawl; possibly
large numbers of humans may eventually live off-world in the farther future; and
much evidence, both technological and cultural, confirms that humans can also
live in harmony with land and water habitats, including improving them and
increasing their diversity, while also withdrawing resources from them.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Robotics<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">While I am not a student of robotic science, it is evident
that this area of technology is developing rapidly, and that robots can perform
increasingly sophisticated tasks (1) that humans do not want to do, and (2) in
many cases, better than humans can do.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ethically, I do not advocate restricting robots
(machine-enabled artificial intelligences) from replacing humans in cases where
robots can outperform humans. It is important to consider that robots can do
“almost anything” that is mechanical and repetitive, and increasingly more
tasks that currently require professional judgement.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">It is my view that as robots advance in their capabilities,
they are least likely to acquire what we refer to as “wisdom.” That is, accomplishing
wise delineations of issues and making decisions about their costs and benefits,
will almost certainly remain a human prerogative.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">If robots can increasingly replace not only menial labourers
and human-guided machines, but also professional decision-makers (e.g., medical
doctors, engineers, teachers, accountants, etc.), then what are humans to do? I
will return to this question later when discussing economics and human purpose.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Biotechnology<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">I have chosen the heading “biotechnology” to refer to all
the activities in which we will increasingly engage to further human health and
minimize disease. My purpose here is not to answer the more difficult ethical
questions (e.g., “should we redesign humans genetically?”). However the ethics eventually
sort out (I'm reluctant to predict), we will certainly employ biological
sciences to make humans healthier, to extend human lifespan, to prevent
disease, and to minimize the depredations of disease.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">The biological mechanisms of the human body, and indeed, of
all plants and animals, are incredibly complex, and often seemingly paradoxical,
when contrasted to the comparatively limited scope of our intelligence and
still very partial knowledge.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Biotechnological progress will very likely proceed by fits
and starts, but it is almost certain that the above generally desirable
outcomes will increasingly come within our reach.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Longer lifespans will certainly raise complex questions of
social justice and policy, not only concerning population regulation, but also regarding
the inevitable shift of human populations towards a majority of chronologically
older and older individuals (a shift that is already in process). It is also
likely that the reproductive period of humans will be extended. My point is
that however we resolve these questions, humans will increasingly be healthier
and live longer. This will by and large amount to a very good thing, despite
the secondary problems which improved human health and longer lifespans and
reproductive spans may also imply.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Artificial Intelligence<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">Discussion thus far
has already touched on multiple areas in which artificial intelligence will be
employed, including its beneficial and some of its potentially problematic
impacts.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">In brief,
artificial intelligence will replace human intelligence almost entirely in
carrying out routine tasks, increasingly in carrying out complex and
judgement-based tasks, and probably to a lesser degree in matters requiring
wisdom and policy-making.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">Let me acknowledge
that many are concerned about the present and potential further abuses of
artificial intelligence in human surveillance and behavioural control, a tactic
universally employed by totalitarian governments. As an advocate of human
freedom, I certainly foresee a world in which the range of human choice and
freedom is large, and in which proscribed activities are few and fundamental to
justice.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">I generally favour
the Western liberal democratic tradition with respect to preserving and protecting
freedoms of speech, opinion, movement and association, however imperfect that
tradition may have proven itself in practice, both historically and at this
time. This is a very difficult area and it is challenging to do it well.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">My discussion from
here proceeds on the assumption that fundamental human freedoms will continue
to be well-protected. I believe there is sufficient evidence of progress on
this front that my assumption can be viewed as reasonable, though it is
certainly also optimistic. Human freedom will continue to require vigorous defense,
and there is no doubt that such defense will continue to be personally costly
to many.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">I have not yet
mentioned the domain of creativity, innovation and originality vis-à-vis
artificial intelligence. In addition to wisdom and policy-setting, it is my
view that humans will increasingly occupy themselves with tasks and activities
involving creativity, innovation and originality. Very likely, our educational
strategies will need to address increased attention to the domains of human
originality and productivity.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">A final area in
which humans will not be replaced by artificial intelligence will be in the
domain of interpersonal relationships (though there will be large areas of
overlap within which very complex ethical and policy decisions will still have to
be made).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">My current view is
that much of our daily, weekly and annual scheduling that is currently taken up
with employment and other routine duties will be replaced by relationship-focused
activities of many kinds. For example, children's education, much of which can
be guided by artificial intelligence, will continue to require a necessary and
very substantial component of peer relationship development and adult mentoring
and role-modeling. Also, as “wisdom” cannot, by my definition, be taught via
artificial intelligence, adults will continue to be highly engaged in the education
of children and adult learners, and this will remain a somewhat intensive and
probably lifelong activity – and duty, for many.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Healthier Lifestyles<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">As biotechnology advances, it is possible that exercise,
fitness, sports and physical recreational activities will be advanced to some
considerable degree via biotechnological interventions. For example, we will
almost certainly develop and employ supplements and other technologies that artificially
increase strength and agility, aid in weight regulation, etc.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">However, I have read extensively in the field of exercise
science, and there is much accomplished by exercise and activities
requiring/developing agility that will be very difficult to replace via
biochemistry, molecular biology and artificial intelligence.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">While mild exercise has many documented benefits (including, importantly: telomere extension, prolonging productive lifespan and stem cell activation, including new brain cell growth), current research shows that the most dramatic benefits accrue from high intensity exercise, including muscular
effort against increasing resistance and recurring levels of effort of 20 seconds or longer at or near one’s maximum safe heart rate. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">A partial listing of the extensive benefits of intense exercise include: (1) tissue hypertrophy and increases in strength/density (especially muscle, bone and connective tissue); (2) tissue repair (for example, reversal of arthritic symptoms; wound healing); (3) metabolic regulation & optimization (e.g., lowered resting heart rate, blood pressure, serum cholesterol and sugars; improved insulin sensitivity; reduced hyperarousal; accelerated systemic signalling & improved systemic efficiency); (4) heightened immune system functioning; (5) increased aerobic metabolism of energy sources in mitochondria (aerobic oxidation is 16 times more efficient than anaerobic fuel metabolism); (6) mitochondrial proliferation in fat cells (mitochondrially-dense brown fat cells continue burning energy for 48-72 hours following intense exercise, aiding in weight regulation); (7) preferential burning and reduction of interstitial fat (reducing fat around internal organs); (8) profound anti-inflammatory benefits (interstitial fat is the primary releaser of inflammatory molecules which exacerbate all inflammatory illnesses, including cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, autoimmune conditions, etc.; signalling molecules released by contracting muscles also combat multiple additional inflammatory processes); (9) increased circulatory capacity, including blood cell proliferation, increased circulating blood volume, and growth of new capillaries; (10) capillarization of the alveoli (lungs), specifically, increasing the air/red blood cell interface, and thus the amount of oxygen delivered to the bloodstream via respiration; (11) increased endurance, energy, and resistance to fatigue; (12) multiple psychological benefits, including antidepressant and antianxiety effects, improved attentional self-regulation & executive functioning capacities, and, importantly, heightened optimism and positive interest in one's surroundings & relationships. This listing is not exhaustive, and we have probably identified so far only a small part of the total benefits of intense exercise. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Notably, and directly related to the above summary, contracting human muscles release over 650
biologically active signalling molecules (myokines), the functions of most of
which are not yet understood, or are partially understood at best. Because of the complexity of these biochemical processes, there will
probably never be a substitute for physical effort, practice and skill refinement,
even when we become more able to enhance strength and endurance via biotechnology,
artificial intelligence, prosthetics, etc.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Returning to the question of obviously increased human free
time, I am assuming that for most persons, increased allocations of time to
physical exercise and to the development of strength and agility will occur. This will yield further human health benefits, including heightened safety and accident prevention, as well as the obvious gains which may
accrue from a continuing emphasis on the importance of socialization. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Note that the safety benefits of exercise are manyfold, including improved resistance to injury via tissue strengthening; practice effects, improving readiness for unanticipated and off-balance situations; heightened alertness, including body and environmental awareness; improved coordination and balance; improved reaction time; strength-based efficacy; and many more. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Healthy lifestyle habits will increasingly be instilled in
childhood, and this will almost certainly become a primary focus of education
as well as of free time usage.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Expansion into Space beyond Earth<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">I have been arguing for some time against the artificial
dichotomy of “here on Earth” versus “out there in space.” Earth is literally a “spaceship,”
and in fact nothing other than a spaceship. It is a live-aboard vessel hurtling
through our corner of a vast universe at an incomprehensible speed. We are
already spacefarers, whether we like it or not.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Further, space is a vast, if initially hostile, habitat,
offering not only adventure and resources, but also potentially safer abodes,
habitat diversification and a bigger view of the “natural world, writ large,” including
yet-undiscovered natural events and processes, new substances and still
unimagined natural laws and principles, which may importantly inform our
scientific investigations and enable a continuing acceleration of progress.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">The primary threat of space is radiation, but we are quickly
identifying new materials which hold promise of shielding us from radiation,
including, recently, graphene and selenomelanin, with a promise of very likely
many more such new materials. Biotechnological interventions may also prove
significant. I'm currently optimistic that the radiation problem in space
beyond Earth’s geomagnetic field will gradually be “solved.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">A second challenge in our expansion into space beyond Earth is
loss of strength and body mass through leaving earth’s gravitational well. It
is possible that we will initially do better exploring the regions of space
beyond Earth through artificial gravity space stations than by colonizing moons
and planets with substantially less gravity than Earth. Possibly, biotechnology
will eventually aid us with remedies to this problem. Machines for low or zero
gravity exercise have already been developed, and these will be necessary for
the foreseeable future.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Space exploration will obviously expose us to a tsunami of
new facts and discoveries, and this will include new materials, new chemicals,
new biological processes, and new understanding of our own biology and
technologies when faced with the unique challenges of extraplanetary travel. There
will absolutely be an explosion of scientific discovery accompanying our
ventures into our universal habitat beyond Earth.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Stated differently: We are already citizens of the universe. That we
currently inhabit a single planet within this universe is very clearly a starting point, not an end point. There is no inherent limit to how much of our universe we may ultimately decide to explore and make our home. For all practical purposes, our options are infinite.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Safety Technologies and Preventative Health<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Something I think is already in process, and that will begin
to alter our lives dramatically, is the change in our tolerance for unsafe
situations and practices, despite their current commonality. Automobile travel
is the most obvious example, but it is not the only one. Many occupations
involve unsafe situations, and we tolerate high-risk behaviours in such
activities as sports that are likely to be re-evaluated in the fairly near
future (e.g., concussions resulting from blows to the head in boxing, heading
soccer balls, etc.).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">I can’t offer a moral prescription here, or advise anyone
else as to the level of personal risk s/he should deem acceptable. I'm not out
to stop boxing or to change the rules of soccer/football. Rather my point is
that, as a society, we are already moving rapidly in the direction of being
less tolerant of preventable risk. Also consider that injuries resulting from
high-risk activities are very costly to humans, both in financial and quality
of life terms. In fact, the costs associated with injuries are escalating, in
part because we now have more, and more expensive, treatment options available,
injured persons are more likely to survive, even if they are very disabled,
etc.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">I think it is a certainty that we will stop tolerating high
levels of injuries, deaths and disabilities resulting from traffic and travel
accidents. Artificial intelligence and other technologies will be combined to
minimize injury and loss of life. Over time, we will also have increased
“biotechnological” and biomechanical interventions to aid recovery from injury,
minimize disability, and promote rehabilitation.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">My analysis for at-work injuries is similar, and I think
it’s likely that our tolerance for sports and recreational injuries, already
decreasing, will continue to decline, in large part because our awareness of
injury and prevention mechanisms is also expanding.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Note that improving safety and reshaping our environments so that injuries of all kinds are less likely is just one subset of the preventative health measures that will ultimately become possible through continuing progress in the fields of behavioural and mental health, biotechnology and social cooperation. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">The above discussion is notwithstanding that risk-taking is
actually essential to human mental health (and arguably also, physical health).
Individuals who avoid or are unable to take risks tend to live restricted lives
and to suffer from higher levels of mental health problems. That is, I'm not
arguing against risk, but against unreasonable risks with no “edge” in terms of
their potential payoffs. This is often a judgement call, and I would come down
on the side of human freedom when judgements require to be made, though I would
also argue for informed (educated) decision-making, particularly when those
undertaking risks are put into those situations by others, or when they are
dependent on others for their own (perceived) safety.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Private Property and Human Rights/Security Protection<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">The core and most essential ingredient of modern prosperity
is the right of the individual to secure private property and for the person’s right
to ownership of that property to be protected by a system of laws. The
contemporary economist Hernando DeSoto has compiled extensive evidence that global
human poverty is attributable first and foremost to limitations on rights of
ownership and to restricted or nonexistent legal protections of persons and
personal property.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">The modern-day case of China is a compelling example of an
explosion of wealth in the aftermath of the (partial) replacement of Maoist communist
ideology by a new system of laws that instituted protection of private property
ownership to a degree that was historically distinct (note that this new system
is now being eroded, and that this decline in property rights and protection is
reducing China’s wealth as a consequence).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">This emphasis on the primacy of individual property
ownership is obviously contrary to much liberal and collectivist ideology, and
requires some discussion. Let me state my case in positive terms.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Essentially what I'm arguing is that capitalist prosperity
affords such an abundance and overflow of wealth that the goals of most
liberals and collectivists (equity, security, opportunity) are also best advanced
by private ownership (capitalism) because capitalist wealth establishes a
“social” foundation that is necessary and sufficient for the achievement of
non-monetary goals (health, education, social security, equal opportunity, etc.).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">When poverty results from limitations on or failed
protections of private ownership, then the above popular liberal aims become
increasingly difficult and ultimately impossible to achieve.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Additionally, when private property is protected, and for
the moment setting aside concerns about how wealth is distributed, this
establishes a framework in which human rights generally can be better
protected. That is, a prosperous society is inherently more stable, and accumulated
wealth literally provides the funding needed to open more and more doors to
disadvantaged groups.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Questions relating to the equitable distribution of wealth
are addressed in the following section.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Free Markets, Balanced Budgets, Creativity and Entrepreneurial Capitalism<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Much has been written over many centuries about why free
markets advance prosperity. I am not attempting here to duplicate that
discussion. I think that currently, the primary issue at stake is
that of inequity in light of an excessive concentration of wealth among a very
few ultrarich individuals and families, and I will state immediately that the
maldistribution of wealth, as it exists now, is indeed a bad thing, and amounts
to a current crisis situation. A case can be made that the redistribution of wealth is in fact the primary cause of social conflict and unrest, including a primary cause of war. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">However, there is ample evidence that capitalism in itself
does not cause maldistribution of wealth, though by its very nature it produces
unequal distribution of wealth (the two are not the same thing). Adam Smith
wrote extensively about how the “invisible hand” of the market, driven, if you
will, by human “selfish interest,” tends paradoxically to result in increasing
prosperity for society as a whole – because economics is very much <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">not</i> a “zero sum game.” </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Market economies by their very nature expand and multiply wealth, resulting in ever more prosperous and abundant societies and an ever increasing range of choices for individual humans.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ludwig von Mises developed a more refined and comprehensive
view of how humans, choosing freely in unimpeded markets, specializing in
various skills, and trading with whomever they choose, wherever they choose (that
is, engaging in “free trade”) create increasing levels of wealth via each one
of these processes and more.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">There is strong historical evidence in favour of the
argument that free markets not only promote general prosperity, but also aid in
the fair and just distribution of wealth. Let me offer just one example. From
the time of the Great Depression through the 1960s (approximately 4 decades),
the trend in the distribution of wealth in the United States favoured the
middle and working classes over wealthier individuals. Working people thus
enjoyed an ever-increasing proportion of the nation’s wealth for the duration
of that almost half-century timeframe, throughout which the American economy was
very much free-market based, in fact, much moreso then than it is now.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">If capitalism is not the cause of the current inequitable
redistribution of wealth from the middle and working classes to the ultrarich,
then what is?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Once again, Mises offers what I consider to be a very good
answer. In his view, maldistribution of wealth results when a central authority
interferes in the operation of free markets. This is not a difficult concept.
When anyone “manages” markets, then prices are no longer set voluntarily by the
market’s participants, and those placed nearer to the centres of power are in a
position to anticipate the direction of the “policy-based” interference to gain
personal advantage. This tilting of the playing field is not only unrelated to
capitalism, but in fact, contrary to the first principle of capitalism (that
markets should be free and unmanipulated).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">In the 1920s, prior to the Great Depression, there was a
concentration of wealth among the very rich, because the ultrarich were able to
utilize their economic power to influence governments at all levels to give
them unequal advantages vis-à-vis monopoly power to the explicit disadvantage
of other market participants. In this case, maldistribution of wealth was
attributable to the ability of the very rich to “buy” government intervention
in the markets on their behalf, enabling them to quash their competitors
through now illegal practices, which even at the time were described as “anti-competitive behaviours” (price-fixing, locally undercutting competitors’ costs, etc.). After
the ultrarich were damaged by the Great Depression, the recovering markets in
the absence of their now-illegal behaviours were able to distribute wealth more
fairly, precisely <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">because</i> the markets
were less manipulated.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">In our current situation, the problem causing our markets to
be “unfree” is essentially threefold.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 38.4pt; mso-list: l10 level1 lfo10; text-indent: -20.4pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(1)<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Central banks around the world are interfering
in markets by suppressing interest rates and artificially increasing the supply
of money, literally by printing money out of thin air, which they call
“quantitative easing.” Accompanying ultralow interest rates encourage both
governments and speculators to borrow far more than they otherwise would, and
by historically unprecedented margins (literally trillions of dollars are now borrowed
by global governments and corporations annually; this has never happened before
in world history outside of war circumstances). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 38.15pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 6.0pt; margin: 6pt 0in 0in 38.15pt; mso-list: l10 level1 lfo10; text-indent: -20.15pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(2)<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Beyond the above already problematic situation,
global central banks also purchase assets. These consist primarily of
government bonds and mortgage-backed securities, but in Europe, Japan and China,
also include the marketed shares of private corporations, literally forcing
stock markets higher. The central banks also follow a policy of “openness,” by
clearly communicating their policy directions well in advance. While this may
sound progressive, it is actually a signal to speculators as to which assets to
buy, as artificial central bank demand runs up the prices of the assets they
purchase through the time-honoured principle of supply and demand. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 38.15pt; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 6.0pt; margin: 6pt 0in 0in 38.15pt; mso-list: l10 level1 lfo10; text-indent: -20.15pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(3)<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Perhaps the most subtle problem is that when the
central banks interfere in the market economy, they introduce “false,” that is,
artificial, demand signals into the market. This in turn distorts prices (the
price of anything that is in demand, whether artificially or otherwise, will
increase). Mises called this “asset misallocation.” That is, market
participants no longer invest capital in the real economy, but in the
artificial economy manufactured by well-telegraphed central bank asset
purchases. Assets are thus employed unproductively, for short-term gain (that
is, to “buy what the central banks are buying” or to issue debt at artificially
low rates, the returns from which are then paid out to corporate insiders in
options and dividends). As a result of capital misallocation, this “financial
engineering” in fact weakens the real economy, as investments are withdrawn
from “Main Street” businesses and reallocated to “financial products” (e.g.,
bonds, options, stock purchases, financial derivative contracts, etc.). Thus, a
financial bubble results in this “engineered” economy, encompassing stocks,
bonds, real estate and collectibles, and the Main Street economy suffers, along
with working and middle class people, who are not participants in the central
bank-created “artificial economy.” The current financial bubble, which is
sucking wealth from working people and transferring it to wealthy asset
investors employing financial engineering, is arguably the most egregious in
history. Importantly, please take note that the current “Wall Street” financial
asset bubble has nothing to do with capitalism. Rather, it is the result of intentional
central bank disruptions of financial markets, thereby creating the severe and
increasing imbalances described above.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">What would happen if the central banks stopped “managing”
the markets and set them free again? I predict two results:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; mso-list: l11 level1 lfo11; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(1)<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]-->The
asset bubbles created by financial engineering would gradually (not suddenly) collapse,
placing downward pressure on financially-engineered assets. That is, stocks,
bonds, real estate and collectibles would begin to fall in price from their
current lofty highs, and this decline would continue for many years, based on
the many years of distortive central bank interventions that were required to
create the asset bubble in the first place (by my reckoning, the current round
of excessive interference of central banks in the markets – emphatically not
the first in history, just the current one – began with Allen Greenspan’s
appointment to the Chair of the US Federal Reserve in 1987, 34 years ago at the
time of this writing). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: .5in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 6.0pt; margin: 6pt 0in 0in 0.5in; mso-list: l11 level1 lfo11; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">(2)<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]-->The
resulting asset price “deflation” would have some parallels to the 1930s, which
is the last time that there was a substantial collapse in the assets of the
very rich. There would be an immediate shock to the global economy at all
levels. Everyone would be affected. However, after the initial shock, and
without the market-distorting influence of the central banks, the free market
would once again set prices based on what real people actually want to buy or
sell. In turn, this would redirect investment away from purely financial assets
and back to the Main Street economy. Once again, the financial situation of
working and middle class people would resume its improvement relative to the
ultrarich (as had occurred previously, as described above). My argument is that
capitalism, when not impeded by central authorities claiming to make managed
markets work “better” than free ones do, tends towards bettering the situations
of everyone. This is because free people making their own decisions in
unimpeded markets is the ultimate foundation of prosperity.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">There are, of course, other arguments against free markets,
for example, that the more capable will take advantage of the less capable,
and, additionally, that those with social privilege will leverage their position
of “social” advantage to multiply their wealth at the expense of the less
privileged. These criticisms are well-founded.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">My rejoinder is a simple one, which is that less-managed
markets are actually more equitable than “more-managed” markets, and that when
economies are prosperous, there is more excess wealth which can (1) enable such
social benefits as health care, education and social security; and (2) provide
increasing opportunities for initially disadvantaged persons to participate in
a healthy and growing economy. Social prejudices and privileges are more easily
forgotten when an expanding economy creates a demand for labour.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">If we have learned it nowhere else, we certainly know from
the sports arena that initially disadvantaged players and teams can end up as
winners when the contest is free and fair. In free markets, over time, the game
is less and less about privilege, and more and more about effort, discipline
and competence.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Finally, there is the problem of government debt and
balanced budgets. I will not go into great detail here. I previously put
forward a simple argument, that if governments STOP doing things that don't
work, and do MORE of the things that work, then government actions can also
contribute to a nation’s prosperity, and that can be achieved without accumulating
further budget deficits.</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Cooperation, Shared Goals and Accomplishing More<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Humans are not the only creatures who cooperate. While cooperation is a central part of who and what we are, it's also an area of supreme difficulty for us, both as a species and as individuals. Due to our complex and wide-ranging abilities, we are very different from each other at the personal level. Our differences make cooperation powerful and growthful, but differences in our viewpoints, understandings and abilities frequently present themselves as obstacles to cooperation as well.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Much of my professional work has concerned itself with various aspects of human cooperation. I have generally worked as an advocate for cooperation, and for most all of us, increasing cooperation is a matter of overcoming obstacles of many kinds. As a general rule, successful persons either possess skills or attributes that are highly desirable to others, or they possess superior skills and have greater experience in cooperating with others.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">What have I learned about human cooperation through my work? Most importantly, the obstacles to increased cooperation tend to come first from within ourselves, rather than from others. The inner obstacles are primary. The obstacles encountered in others are in most cases secondary. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Some of these obstacles include: (1) not actually knowing what we want or need from others; (2) lacking confidence that others are open to joining together with us and aiding us; (3) being fearful that others will interfere with, misunderstand, slow or impede our efforts, rather than aid us; (4) not being aware of what others may be able to offer; (5) feeling that we are alone, unimportant to others, undeserving of aid, or of inferior status; (6) feeling that only we know how to do what must be done, and that others cannot do what we believe would be required of them in a collaborative relationship; (7) lacking skill and experience in initiating and sustaining cooperation; (8) not considering cooperation with others as an option in working towards our goals, even if the goals are clear; (9) not considering that persons presently in conflict with us may be as likely to become future allies as anyone else; (10) instinctively or unconsciously ruling out certain persons or groups as possible collaborators due to pre-existing and/or possibly unknown perceptual and behavioural biases; (11) viewing potential collaborators as deficient in the skills or attitudes that we believe to be important in collaboration in general; (12) concern that collaborators will place greater demands on us than we place on them, or that their demands or expectations of us might exceed what we can offer; (13) viewing potential collaborators as unavailable because of the extent or importance of their already-existing commitments; (14) general personal limitations in the ability to set boundaries with others, that is, difficulty with establishing and maintaining the scope and limits of any collaboration. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">There are many more obstacles to cooperation than the above, but this list includes some of the more common obstacles that tend to cause us to fail to initiate or request cooperation. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">How then do we succeed in establishing and sustaining cooperation? I will write more about this in the near future. Some of the approaches to undertaking a collaboration and keeping it going are subtle, and are probably not obvious to most people, even though many of the methods and strategies are not actually difficult in themselves. That is, many aspects of securing others' cooperation are easy and effective, but this does not mean that they are necessarily obvious or widely known. </span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Paradoxes of Prosperity and Purpose | Subsistence as an Alternative<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">As I had stated earlier, I do not believe in any one formula
which can answer every question or solve every problem, and this includes my
present arguments and lines of reasoning.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">For example, I have put forward a somewhat forceful argument
on behalf of technological innovation and free market capitalism. While doing
this, I recognize that there are real and viable alternatives to the system of capitalism
and to the continuing technological innovations that capitalism tends to
advance, other than the commonly proposed and now timeworn options of communism
and socialism.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Briefly, my argument against the “standard” alternatives to
capitalism is that (1) communism is destructive to markets, thus causing increasing
poverty, and with the resulting impoverishment, accelerating centralized
control, oppression, infringement of individual freedoms, and ultimately, leading
to totalitarian one-party rule, etc. It’s no accident that the world’s great
communist governments have also been totalitarian in practice.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">My critique of (2) socialism is quite different. In fact, I
was raised as a socialist, and my current view is actually that socialism is
both possible and workable, under the simple condition that the institution of increasing
social benefits (that is, “social infrastructure”) is predicated on a
foundation of free market capitalism.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Everything I have envisioned in the current framework is
hinged upon the presumption that an increasingly prosperous society will offer
more and more options not only to people, but to all species with which we
share our planet (“Spaceship Earth”).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">To repeat, capitalist free markets spin off so much excess
wealth that an increasing range of “non-profit” goals becomes both thinkable
and achievable. Capitalist free markets are the cornerstone on which
ever-improving “person-friendly” social infrastructure can be established.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">But… and this is an important point… the real alternative to
capitalism is not communism (which is anti-prosperity) or socialism (which
results naturally from capitalism as wealth accumulates), but <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">subsistence</i>.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Perhaps the best spokesperson on behalf of subsistence was
Ivan Illich, who wrote extensively on alternatives not only to capitalism, but also
to socialism, industrialization, centralization, etc. Illich argued against
prosperity and on behalf of simplicity.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Additionally, many of the world’s people today are still
tribal people, and subsistence is the core of the way of life of tribal people.
My work involves me daily with tribal people, and I am aware that their
interests are more in line with a lifestyle based on sustainability than on prosperity.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">There can be no question that subsistence is every bit as
sustainable as capitalist prosperity, though there are obvious advantages and
disadvantages to each.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">A subsistence lifestyle achieves “progress” only very
gradually. There might be less progress with making life easier, overcoming
disease, advancing scientific knowledge, etc.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">On the other hand, capitalist prosperity brings with it
various demands and inevitable stresses. Mental health may be more difficult to
achieve. Capitalism is competitive by its nature, and in competition, there is always
winning and losing, both of which can induce stress responses in differing
ways.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Many philosophers have argued convincingly against the economic
system of “always more.”</span></p>
<h3><span style="font-family: arial;">Ephemeralization<o:p></o:p></span></h3>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">To be clear, I am arguing from Buckminster Fuller’s concept
of ephemeralization, that is accomplishing more and more, but with the
accompanying expenditure of less and less time, money and resources. Fuller
called this “doing more with less, until eventually we can do almost everything
with almost nothing.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">In principle, an economy based on the technological
principle of ephemeralization could, at some point in the future, make as few
demands on Planet Earth as would occur if all humans had chosen a subsistence
lifestyle. So even the two “real choices” – prosperity versus subsistence – could
still meet again at an ultimate and common concluding destination.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Please allow me to close by acknowledging that there will
never be “only one way” forward. My expectation is that the majority of the
world’s people are unlikely to choose subsistence, as well as to reject
prosperity with its increasingly efficient technologies, as their preferred way
of life, but for those who do, it should be recognized that opting out of what I
have just described here remains an entirely valid choice.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Similarly, for those who opt for the prosperity-dependent technological
route, it should be understood that the aim of pursuing this course is
always to go easier on our planet and its resources until we can do almost everything
with almost nothing. This will probably not be apparent to most in the
beginning, and the principle of ephemeralization needs to be propounded, so
that it becomes, eventually, a fixture of all “prosperity thinking.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Let me say this. For those who choose either way forward
that I am suggesting, based on a mix of human freedom and cooperation, and whether
with a full embrace of capitalist prosperity, free markets and the rapidly
advancing technology and overflowing wealth it brings with it, or with a preference
for voluntary simplicity and perhaps a contemporary version of a subsistence
lifestyle, I believe there are very solid grounds to be optimistic, with both
courses, as I have outlined here.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial;">Laurence Hunt</span></p>
<p align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Primary reference:</b> <a href="https://www.umsl.edu/~sauterv/analysis/Fall2013Papers/Purcell/bucky.html" target="_blank">R.Buckminster Fuller and Systems Theory</a> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>21 DEC 2021.</b> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">For anyone who hasn't followed all my posts on this topic, my position is (1) The planet is warming FASTER than the scientific consensus has recognized; (2) Greenhouse gases have triggered the current spike in average temperatures; (3) Positive feedbacks are accelerating warming and climate change beyond human influences (geology, chemistry & biology take over); (4) We will not win this battle unless we are prosperous (able to afford massive & rapid technological changes); (5) Oil & gas are better than coal; (6) Inexpensive oil & gas are a foundation of prosperity; (7) Oil/gas companies are among the primary investors in postcarbon technologies (they are not "bad guys"); (8) We're going to need more oil & gas before we can make do with less (please don't block pipelines & hydrocarbon exploration); (9) I'm not a fan of fracking --- oil sands are better; (10) Solar & wind are competitive technologies already; (11) Ponderomotive fusion power (no heat, no radiation, no carbon) is the ultimate solution to grid-based electrical power, and will enable us (12) to use oil & gas for the synthesis of organic molecules, which is a far better use than burning them!</span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>21 DEC 2021.</b> Please see Derek Burney's recent editorial: </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><h1 class="article-title" id="articleTitle" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #191919; font-family: "PT Sans", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 1.1; margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/derek-h-burney-climate-obsessed-politicians-must-wake-to-reality-of-how-essential-oil-and-gas-are-to-life" target="_blank">Climate-obsessed politicians must wake to reality of how essential oil and gas are to life</a></span></h1>
<p align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></p><br /></div>Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-9941206481665010632021-10-30T18:05:00.003-05:002021-12-21T12:30:47.838-06:00Moving Beyond the Steam Engine | An Essay on Eco-Prosperity<p><b><span style="font-family: arial;"> 30 October 2021</span></b></p><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;">Because I'm a gold/silver investor, I'm tied into the Libertarian political movement, of which I'm <i>not </i>a typical member. My core belief system is more Bucky Fuller. We require design technology to do more and more with less and less so as to achieve <b>ephemeralization</b>, which is both a process and a goal. If there were an ephemeralist political party, that is the one I would actually join!</div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5KGzc2BSarHStALmeem1O2E6qwB91K57fnT3c0t4kQ8F1_pDqvADHp92TS46ZG9aQHxWO7D-xZtIkTZzJvVdBmNqCUnuCpJsMhiAV5jyhVTWYm9S_gyhrpM0GWLbDf7ize-DHaQ/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5KGzc2BSarHStALmeem1O2E6qwB91K57fnT3c0t4kQ8F1_pDqvADHp92TS46ZG9aQHxWO7D-xZtIkTZzJvVdBmNqCUnuCpJsMhiAV5jyhVTWYm9S_gyhrpM0GWLbDf7ize-DHaQ/" width="320" /></a></div><br /></div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;">While the above "political" statement is peripheral to my argument, it's my view that there are two "valid" economic systems: markets & trade (capitalism/prosperity) and subsistence (Ivan Illich is among those who have advocated for subsistence, as do many of my First Nation friends, and also many environmentalists). </div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;">With ephemeralization (Buckminster Fuller) we can see a rising standard of living (prosperity) with a concomitant lowering demand on the environment. I think <i>only </i>prosperity will enable us to afford the large cost of environmental repair and habitat restoration (that is, prosperity will benefit the planet MORE than subsistence for this perhaps non-obvious reason). </div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;">Strikingly, almost everybody on both sides is advocating a power system based on steam engines, apart from the eco-subsistence movement, who prefer wind/solar and voluntary poverty (I don't use the term pejoratively: it is a valid way forward, though not the one I prefer). </div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;">This is why my discovery of the <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://hb11.energy/how-it-works/&source=gmail&ust=1635719833849000&usg=AFQjCNEVqz79DCLkTR9QtBMVURrXM7zUTg" href="https://hb11.energy/how-it-works/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">HB11 Energy fusion/electric system</a> a few years ago set my thinking on a new track. Of the <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/2018/07/is-compact-fusion-power-now-fewer-that.html&source=gmail&ust=1635719833849000&usg=AFQjCNHGFQifgkkzLFWNcJiGJtk95952Lw" href="http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/2018/07/is-compact-fusion-power-now-fewer-that.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">34 fusion power technology development plans</a> I studied, only HB11 bypasses the typical avenue of heat generation in the power cycle. Almost all fusion designs, even those not using radioactive deuterium/tritium, intend to channel heat into steam engine technology, which now seems hopelessly primitive to me. The same goes, of course, for coal, natural gas, and nuclear fission. </div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;">Given how fundamentally superior the HB11 design is, I am stunned at how little attention it is receiving on the world stage, even among fusion power advocates, who seem largely content to derive heat from nuclear fusion and then to channel the heat into primitive steam engine technology. To be blunt, I just don't get it! </div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;">It goes without saying that if we really want to reduce global warming, generating power through heat (including via carbon-free power) <i>can't possibly be the most desirable way forward</i>. For example, large cities are heat engines in themselves, tending to be measurably warmer than their surrounding territory, just because they are energy consumers and heat generators. Stated differently, generating power by producing heat cannot possibly aid the cause of reining in global warming. </div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;">Don't get me wrong. Even though the HB11 process generates electricity without heat, I have considered that electricity is not fully efficient, and that the standard measure of electrical inefficiency is heat generation in transmission & deployment. Beyond that, electricity will still be used for many heat generation ends, including home/office/space heating & cooling. Further, many technologies require heat input, including refining and mechanical processes of all sorts. Electrical motors, for example, those in electric vehicles, will also generate large amounts of waste heat. While all of the above is true, it is still vastly preferable to bypass heating in the original generation of power. </div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;">I will go further. <b>It is ridiculous to continue to contemplate using heating as a method of power generation, period.</b></div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;">I've already composed an essay on my blog about 14 emerging (constructive) trends, applicable to our present time, which is here: </div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;"><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/2021/08/mapping-constructive-future-history.html&source=gmail&ust=1635719833849000&usg=AFQjCNEQd8IMi60R8Xg-Y4Ge4owid6p1mA" href="http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/2021/08/mapping-constructive-future-history.html" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">http://laurencehunt.blogspot.<wbr></wbr>com/2021/08/mapping-<wbr></wbr>constructive-future-history.<wbr></wbr>html</a><br /></div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;">Carbon recapture/planetary cooling and habitat restoration are two of the 14 trends. </div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;">Can we use electrical power to recapture carbon, otherwise cool the planet, and restore habitats? Clearly, yes. So while the "eco-prosperity" course that I advocate will generate heat, both intentionally and as a consequence of inefficiencies, I think we can easily compensate for that by recapturing carbon and restoring habitats (I say "easily" because prosperity makes the large scale deployment of new technologies possible). I don't have to describe here how healthy (recovering/regenerating) oceans and forests capture carbon and promote an overall cooling of the earth. I am assuming that this is generally well understood among my readers.</div><div style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div class="gmail_default" style="color: #222222; font-family: tahoma, sans-serif;">Let me comment briefly on the potentially misleading dichotomy of capitalism vs socialism. While communism clearly destroys wealth by removing incentives to innovate and to create profitable efficiencies, in my view, the positive aspect of "socialism " is that capitalist prosperity, by increasing real wealth, makes improved physical and social infrastructure possible: not just better power/communication grids, roads and waterworks, but better education, health care, and basic social security. Stated simply, eco-prosperity is both capitalist and "socialist," in that it is a roadmap for increasing prosperity with democratic benefits.</div>Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-32509140739298611032020-06-27T17:10:00.002-05:002020-06-27T17:14:00.212-05:00WHO IS BUYING GOLD 2020<br />
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<a href="https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/bullionstar/infographic-central-bank-gold-buying-and-gold-repatriation/"><img src="https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/uploads/2020/03/infographic-central-bank-gold-buying-repatriation-v2.jpg" width="440" /></a>Central Bank Gold Buying and Gold Repatriation – An infographic hosted at <a href="https://www.bullionstar.com/">Bullio<span class="mce_SELRES_start" data-mce-type="bookmark" style="display: inline-block; line-height: 0; overflow: hidden; width: 0px;"></span>nStar.com</a><br />Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-38430714099138090932020-05-18T16:59:00.000-05:002020-05-18T17:01:29.487-05:00Compact Fusion Power Will Be Here Within 10-15 Years --- So Now Is the Time To Plan for It!<div style="text-align: justify;">
18 May 2020 (continuously updated)</div>
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I have now catalogued 34 currently active projects developing prototype fusion power reactors, most of them "compact fusion" designs, and also including several rocket engine designs which are fusion or plasma-based.</div>
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To my knowledge, there is no single site where a summary of all of these projects can be obtained, so I am attempting to offer a layperson's overview here. While two pioneering fusion power programs have been closed, including the Russian Kurchatov Institute's superconducting tokamak (as originally proposed and designed by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrei_Sakharov#Development_of_thermonuclear_devices" target="_blank">Andrei Sakharov</a>), the first of its kind, there has been an explosion of new projects and new designs, based on increasingly diverse concepts and methodologies. </div>
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While most fusion power initiatives are advancing on shoestring budgets, particularly when contrasted to much better funded oil and gas industry projects, which receive hundreds to thousands of times the funding levels allocated to fusion, the field has nonetheless become crowded, diverse and competitive --- and this has occurred despite operating "under the radar," even with political and industry leaders, energy policy analysts, and, most concerningly, green energy advocates (who mostly, it seems, are not paying attention). </div>
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Skepticism about fusion power is rampant, which is perhaps not unusual for an early-stage technology, particularly one as difficult and complex as fusion power, whose parameters are daunting even for physicists employed in the field. Skeptics often comment that fusion power has been in development now for 70 years, with no working reactor yet having been produced. The same skeptics, however, address scant attention to how little funding has been directed to the field over this seven decade span.</div>
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If there is a single point about fusion power technologies that is not well understood, it is almost certainly the fact that the <a href="http://www.fusionenergyleague.org/index.php/blog/article/fusion_v._moores_law" target="_blank">rate at which</a> current fusion technologies have been increasing the duration of plasma confinement and power output <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/is-fusion-energy-in-our-future/" target="_blank">continues to exceed the rate defined by Moore's law</a> in computer processor design (which accurately predicted the repeated doubling of the number of transistors on a CPU chip every two years). One might think that a similar rate of progress in the fusion energy field would attract wider attention and interest, but, so far, it has not.</div>
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I initially chose to lead the present overview with a brief summary of the work of the <a href="https://www.psfc.mit.edu/" target="_blank">MIT Plasma Science and Fusion Center</a>, under the direction of Canadian Dennis Whyte. The University's <a href="https://cfs.energy/" target="_blank"><b>Commonwealth Fusion Systems</b></a> (CFS) spinoff is one of several better-funded and highly innovative projects in the competition to deliver fusion power quickly, affordably and safely to world markets. It is of note that the CFS project has received its seed money from a "carbon" energy company, as well as from a Silicon Valley consortium and other sources.</div>
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The <a href="http://news.mit.edu/2018/mit-newly-formed-company-launch-novel-approach-fusion-power-0309" target="_blank">MIT SPARC design</a> is a compact tokamak, now in the planning stages under the auspices of Commonwealth Fusion Systems, is intended to produce net power from a reactor that is only 40 feet in diameter (including its high temperature ReBCO superconducting magnets and energy collection system). <a href="https://www.eni.com/it_IT/innovazione/piattaforme-tecnologiche/transizione-energetica/eni-mit-insieme-per-fusione.page" target="_blank">MIT has partnered with Eni Energy Corporation</a> of Italy, a visionary oil company leading the way through diversification, to develop its planned net-output reactor.</div>
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I have been expecting many more "carbon energy" companies to be joining in with substantive fusion energy investments over the next few years, as fusion power technology will almost certainly dominate the green energy field in areas where energy demand is high to very high (e.g., on power grids everywhere, particularly in urban centres of moderate size or larger, and in situations where local or mobile energy demands may be intense, such as in industrial settings, large oceangoing vessels, remote locations and, potentially, space travel).</div>
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<a href="https://commonwealthmagazine.org/energy/fusion-the-next-big-thing/#.WYglfJlgOxw.facebook" target="_blank">Dr Whyte stated</a>, "In the last few years there has been an increasing realization of the dramatic progress of fusion science. There is a lot of hard work ahead of us but the conditions necessary to make fusion power are in hand. We see clear opportunities on both the technical and science side to accelerate fusion’s development. There are also some invigorating changes in the support of fusion in that the private sector is starting to invest. For a long time, this work relied solely on government support.</div>
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"We call it ARC, an acronym for Affordable, Robust, and Compact. The basic idea was to ask the question: What would be the minimum-size fusion device that would produce significant amounts of net electrical power? The capacity to make the magnetic field much stronger significantly reduced the size of the device compared to what previous studies had shown. We did the engineering calculations and found a surprising result: a rather compact device can make 250 million watts of net electricity. That’s sufficient to power Cambridge (Massachusetts)! And the fuel is basically free, derived from water. I did the calculation and the yearly cost of fuel per resident of Cambridge is around 20 cents.</div>
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"I have no doubt that we can make fusion energy. The harder path in front of us is making it commercially and economically competitive. Fusion is just more complex than other energy sources. There are going to be hits and misses. It seems to me to be a ripe opportunity for a new kind of partnership between the public and private sector to move things forward.... It’s very complex but I think the technology that exists now, while it’s no guarantee of success, will let us accelerate the development cycle so that it’s much faster. I see a pathway that would make fusion energy in under 15 years.</div>
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"Fusion is the ultimate choice. The problem is it can’t take forever because, by the numbers that are coming out, we need to start deploying it in the next 20 years. That’s why I really believe it’s worth a crack to see if we can get there in 15. If we create the perfect system 50 or 100 years from now, it could be just too late. That’s the urgency of this!" (July 11, 2016)</div>
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The following is my informal list of the 34 fusion power development projects I have identified that are currently underway, also including formally announced future project plans, two discontinued projects (separately from this list of 34 projects), and supplementary information about university plasma physics departments and affiliated plasma physics laboratories, which also conduct basic and applied fusion power research, and also covering emerging collaborations, most notably, the newly-formed <a href="https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/" target="_blank">Fusion Industry Association</a>. I'm sure there are more projects at various levels out there, though the following are the ones that I have identified through a fairly determined search!</div>
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I started at the <a href="http://wiki.fusenet.eu/wiki/Main_Page" target="_blank">FusionWiki</a> for my original list, but this page has not been consistently updated, and is far from comprehensive: <a href="http://wiki.fusenet.eu/wiki/Alternative_fusion_devices" target="_blank">Alternative fusion devices | FusionWiki</a>. Therefore, my own list (below) is the most up-to-date of any that I am aware of.... I should add that I've been aided by commenters on earlier drafts of this blog post, in particular, Elmar Moelzer and <a href="https://www.thefusionpodcast.com/" target="_blank">Dr. Matthew J Moynihan</a>. I have also recently communicated with <a href="https://www.arielcohen.com/" target="_blank">Ariel Cohen</a>, a professional energy analyst and writer, and Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council (see the October 14, 2019 entry at the end of this post).<br />
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I am updating my introduction to point out that <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/hydrogen-boron-fusion-could-be-a-dream-come-true/" target="_blank"><b>HB11 Energy</b></a> has rapidly jumped to the forefront of the field, breaking out of the "tokamak" mindset that has dominated the majority of fusion reactor development efforts. The HB11 strategy is based on the breakthrough laser technology, chirped pulse amplification, which yields "extreme light." At the focus of an extreme light laser pulse, light intensities on the order of thousands of billions of billions of watts per square centimeter are reached, comparable to what would occur if the entire energy reaching the Earth from the Sun, were concentrated onto a single millimetre-sized spot.<br />
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By a nonlinear mechanism, the energy of the laser pulse is converted with high efficiency into directed motion of the electrons and nuclei of the fuel, rather than the random motion associated with heat. In a manner analogous to a beam of particles, but with trillions of times higher density, an inwardly accelerated fuel layer rams into the adjacent fuel, igniting an avalanche of hydrogen-boron reactions, resulting in a high-temperature “burn wave” that propagates down the axis of the cylinder.<br />
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Stated simply, we will probably have multiple fusion technologies to choose from. However, all of them are now going to be competing against hydrogen-boron chirped pulse amplification, which has emerged as the technology leader at this time.<br />
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<b>34 currently-identified fusion power and plasma physics initiatives:</b></div>
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1. <a href="https://www.psfc.mit.edu/" target="_blank"><b>MIT Plasma Science and Fusion Center</b></a> --- SPARC will utilize a compact classic tokamak design, enabled by high temperature superconductors, and out front in my opinion; aided by recent partnership with Eni Energy of Italy. This will replace the now-decommissioned Alcator C-Mod reactor. The commercial venture will be carried out via a newly incorporated company, <a href="https://www.cfs.energy/" target="_blank"><b>Commonwealth Fusion Systems</b></a>. SPARC is characterized as a "compact, high-field, net fusion energy experiment." SPARC will be the same size as existing mid-sized fusion devices, but with a much stronger magnetic field. Based on established physics, the device is predicted to produce 50-100 MW of fusion power, achieving fusion gain, Q, greater than 3.</div>
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Such an experiment would be the first demonstration of net energy gain and would validate the promise of high-field devices built with new superconducting technology. SPARC fits into an overall strategy of speeding up fusion development by using new high-field, high-temperature superconducting (HTS) magnets. SPARC leverages decades of international experience with tokamak physics and is a logical follow-on to the series of high-field fusion experiments built and operated at MIT. The long-term goal is to introduce fusion power into the energy market in time to help combat global warming. An October 2018 update is linked <a href="http://news.mit.edu/2018/solving-excess-heat-fusion-power-plants-1009" target="_blank">here</a>. For all updates, click <a href="http://www.psfc.mit.edu/news" target="_blank">here </a>for <a href="http://www.psfc.mit.edu/news" target="_blank">MIT Plasma Science and Fusion Center News</a>. The 15-year timeline (already started) is illustrated below.</div>
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<a href="http://news.mit.edu/2019/entrepreneur-vinod-khosla-rose-lecture-0311" target="_blank">Vinod Khosla</a>, perhaps the best-known of Silicon Valley venture capitalists, has recently partnered with <a href="https://www.eni.com/en_IT/innovation/technological-platforms/energy-transition/eni-mit-fusion.page#" target="_blank">Eni Energy of Italy</a> as an investor in Commonwealth Fusion's SPARC project. Click <a href="http://news.mit.edu/2019/entrepreneur-vinod-khosla-rose-lecture-0311" target="_blank">here </a>for more information. </div>
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2. <a href="https://www.tokamakenergy.co.uk/" target="_blank"><b>Tokamak Energy</b></a> (UK) --- A private venture in Oxfordshire, England, developing successive generations of spherical tokamak reactors on a shoestring budget. The company is seeking "a faster way to fusion." The new ST40 reactor, now in development, replaces the proven ST25 reactor. The ST40 is hoped to be the first privately-funded fusion machine to achieve the temperatures required for fusion. In the first stage of ST40 testing in June 2018, the company achieved plasma temperatures of 15 million degrees Celsius (equivalent to the core of the sun). The end 2018 target is dramatically higher, set at 100 million degrees Celsius – the temperature required to force together charged deuterium and tritium particles that naturally repel each other so that they will begin the necessary fusion reaction. The ST40 will aid in investigating a new domain in tokamak operation: the combination of high magnetic field and low aspect ratio (a "squashed" shape). It will be necessary to study the behaviour of the plasma under such conditions. Tokamak Energy hopes to demonstrate that commercially-viable fusion power can be produced in compact spherical tokamaks. The company states, "Our target is to have our compact solution for fusion providing energy into the grid by 2030. To achieve this objective, we are working in stages and ensuring our technology is robust and meets clearly defined targets and criteria. This enables us to develop our tokamaks faster and helps us remain on track to meet our ultimate target." Note that the MAST spherical tokamak is also being developed in Oxfordshire, with public funding.</div>
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3. <a href="https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/compact-fusion.html" target="_blank"><b>Lockheed Martin</b></a> --- This company's secretive Skunkworks Lab is reportedly developing a portable, ultra-compact fusion reactor (CFR) design. This is the smallest fusion reactor design ever proposed. However, there has been more talk than action on this project so far, and almost nothing is published, including research findings or results with prototypes. It is intended that the transportable CFR will fit on a flatbed truck, or be capable of powering a large aircraft or sea vessel. On a positive note, Lockheed Martin has just <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2018/08/01/will-lockheed-martin-change-the-world-with-its-new-fusion-reactor/" target="_blank">registered a patent</a> for its distinctive design concept. The patent calls for the utilization of a new coil-based magnet technology that produces a much more effective magnetic field for plasma containment, thereby significantly increasing the reactor’s containment capacity (beta limit). The targeted completion date is 2028. <a href="http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/19652/lockheed-martin-now-has-a-patent-for-its-potentially-world-changing-fusion-reactor" target="_blank">Dr. Thomas McGuire</a>, the head of the Skunk Works’ Compact Fusion Project, maintains that the CFR will approach plasma confinement in a radically different way. Instead of constraining the plasma within tubular rings, a series of superconducting coils will generate a new magnetic-field geometry in which the plasma is held within the broader confines of the entire reaction chamber. Superconducting magnets within the coils will generate a magnetic field around the outer border of the chamber. "So for us, instead of a bike tire expanding into air, we have something more like a tube that expands into an ever-stronger wall," McGuire says. The system is therefore regulated by a self-tuning feedback mechanism, whereby the farther out the plasma goes, the stronger the magnetic field pushes back to contain it. The CFR is expected to have a beta limit ratio of one. "We should be able to go to 100% or beyond," McGuire states.</div>
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Aviation Week was the first to report updates on the Lockheed Martin Compact Fusion Reactor program, including that the company is in the process of constructing its newest, more capable, experimental reactor, known as the T5, on July 19, 2019. Despite slower than expected progress, the company remains confident the project can produce practical results, which would completely transform how power gets generated for both military and civilian purposes.</div>
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The company announced that its legendary California-based Skunk Works advanced projects office is in charge of the effort and had already built four different test reactor designs, as well as a number of subvariants, since the program first became public knowledge in 2014.</div>
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"The work we have done today verifies our models and shows that the physics we are talking about – the basis of what we are trying to do – is sound," Jeff Babione, Skunk Works Vice President and General Manager, told Aviation Week. "This year we are constructing another reactor – T5 – which will be a significantly larger and more powerful reactor than our T4."</div>
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The T5's main job will be to further test whether Skunk Work's basic reactor design can handle the heat and pressure from the highly energized plasma inside, which is central to how the system works. In a nuclear fusion reaction, a gaseous fuel gets heated up to a point where the pressure is so intense that its very atomic structure gets disrupted and certain particles fuse together into a heavier nucleus. This process also involves the release of a massive amount of energy, which, in principle, could be used to run a traditional thermal power generator.</div>
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One of the biggest hurdles for Skunk Works may be ensuring that the design remains truly "compact" by the end of its development. Babione acknowledged that Lockheed Martin still had much work to do in scaling up the capabilities of the reactor design to a practical level, which might also require increasing its physical size.</div>
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"How do you scale it up to generate power for a city or an entire town? That’s all ahead of us," he said. "It’s certainly not easy but we think it is in the realm of the possible."</div>
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What is clear is that Lockheed Martin is still building new test reactors and clearly remains committed to its compact fusion reactor program, which could fundamentally change the future of portable power generation.</div>
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4. <a href="https://tae.com/technology-overview/" target="_blank"><b>TAE Technologies</b></a> (formerly Tri Alpha Energy) --- Paul Allen of Microsoft was a leading investor, along with New Enterprise Associates (NEA), Venrock, and Wellcome Trust. The company has successfully raised over $500 million and has been in operation for over 20 years. TAE is developing a (challenging) aneutronic design that, if it works, will largely remove neutron radiation and produce an electric current as the direct product of a hydrogen-boron fusion reaction.</div>
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TAE states, "The proprietary beam-driven FRC approach utilizes injection of beams of high-energy hydrogen atoms to develop and sustain a predominantly large orbit particle plasma, making the system more stable, better confined and fusion more achievable. Further, this solution is compact and energy efficient, yielding a practical power plant size of 200-500 megawatts, and it is economically competitive with other power technologies (that provide) continuous baseload power generation. It is a formidable challenge, indeed: Hydrogen-boron fusion requires considerably hotter conditions than other available source elements. However, we remain undaunted because hydrogen-boron is the safest known fuel cycle."</div>
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5. <a href="https://www.pppl.gov/" target="_blank"><b>Princeton University</b></a> --- The National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) is an innovative magnetic fusion device that was constructed by the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) in collaboration with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Columbia University, and the University of Washington at Seattle. The NSTX-U reactor is also adopting high temperature superconductors and compact design. It produces a plasma that is shaped like a sphere with a hole through its center, different from the "donut" shaped plasmas of conventional tokamaks.</div>
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This innovative plasma configuration may have several advantages, a major one being the ability to confine a higher plasma pressure for a given magnetic field strength. Since the amount of fusion power produced is proportional to the square of the plasma pressure, the use of spherically shaped plasmas could allow the development of smaller, more economical fusion reactors.</div>
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The Princeton <a href="https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/1.873452" target="_blank">Rotamak</a> is a compacted device that can form and sustain a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princeton_field-reversed_configuration" target="_blank">field-reversed configuration</a> (FRC) which does not have an externally toroidal magnetic field. This is contrasted to the spherical tokamak (ST), which possesses such a field. In the rotamak, the steady toroidal plasma current is driven by means of an externally applied rotating magnetic field (RMF). Sufficiently large plasma current can be generated to reverse the external equilibrium magnetic field on the symmetry axis, so that a field reversed configuration (FRC) is formed. Such configuration is considered as a promising alternative for a fusion reactor because of its compact and simple design, with a natural divertor and high plasma beta. Princeton aims to apply this technology to the Direct Fusion Drive concept for spacecraft propulsion (see #22, below).</div>
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On January 12, 2019, Dr. Matthew Moynihan wrote: "The Princeton Rotamak, has set a world-record for the longest stable FRC ever created. The project has had an annual budget of only a few hundred thousand dollars, and a small staff for over 10 years. In April 2018, the Chinese energy company ENN took an interest. They have since invested several millions and hired a staff of 15, in an effort to build a reactor in China based on the Princeton machine. The US keeps ignoring innovations like this."</div>
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6. <a href="http://www.ipp.mpg.de/w7x" target="_blank"><b>Wendelstein 7-X Stellarator</b></a> (Max Planck Institute, Greifswald, Germany) --- this design has some unique advantages in terms of its twisting toroidal shape being optimized for plasma confinement. Wendelstein 7-X is the world’s largest fusion device of the stellarator type. Its objective is to investigate the suitability of the stellarator configuration for a power plant. It tests an optimized magnetic field for the confinement of plasma, which is produced by a system of 50 non-planar superconducting magnet coils, which are the technical core piece of the device. It is expected that plasma equilibrium and confinement will be of a quality comparable to that of a tokamak of the same size, but that the disadvantages of a large current flowing in a tokamak plasma will be avoided. With plasma discharges to last up to 30 minutes, the Wendelstein 7-X is to demonstrate this essential stellarator property (plasma stability) via continuous operation. The main assembly of the Wendelstein 7-X was concluded in 2014, with the first plasma produced on December 10, 2015.</div>
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7. <a href="http://www.washington.edu/news/2014/10/08/uw-fusion-reactor-concept-could-be-cheaper-than-coal/" target="_blank"><b>University of Washington (UW) Z-Pinch Spheromak</b></a> --- The Sheared Flow Stabilized Z-Pinch, has been developed by a team from the University of Washington surrounding Uri Shumlak. This group's funding is through ARPA-E Alpha Program. Due to reaching all milestones under this program, they received another, larger round of funding from ARPA-E ($6.8 million), enabling them to spin off a private company called <a href="https://www.zapenergyinc.com/" target="_blank"><b>Zap Energy, Inc</b></a>.</div>
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It is now intended that Zap Energy will advance the fusion performance of the sheared-flow stabilized (SFS) Z-pinch fusion concept. SFS Z-pinch drives electrical current through a plasma to create magnetic fields that compress and heat the plasma toward fusion conditions. Through this project, the team will raise the electrical current, reduce physics risks relating to plasma instability and confinement limitations, and develop the electrode technology and plasma-initiation techniques necessary to enable the next steps toward a functional SFS Z-pinch fusion power plant. It is hoped that this approach could provide nearly limitless, on-demand, emission-free energy with negligible fuel costs.</div>
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Zap Energy <a href="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/04/potentially-smallest-fusion-device-using-improved-z-pinch-fusion.html" target="_blank">reports </a>that its design is "the most compact solution to Fusion Energy and does not use complex and costly magnetic coils, and that their reactor is consistently producing neutrons.</div>
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The sheared-flow stabilized (SFS) Z-pinch has demonstrated long-lived plasmas with fusion-relevant parameters. This Letter presents the first experimental results demonstrating sustained, quasi-steady-state neutron production from the Fusion Z-pinch Experiment (FuZE), operated with a mixture of 20% deuterium/80% hydrogen by volume.</div>
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8. <a href="http://www.ctfusion.net/" target="_blank"><b>CTFusion</b></a>. Separately from Zap Energy, the <b>University of Washington</b> in Seattle has also spun out the company <a href="http://www.ctfusion.net/" target="_blank">CTFusion</a> as an early commercial venture, and has maintained a longstanding collaboration with the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. The reactor concept, classed as a dynomak type of design, is of the spheromak subtype, and began as a class project initiated by Dr. Thomas Jarboe in 2012. Dr. Jarboe and (then) doctoral student <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/derek-sutherland-74381836" target="_blank">Derek Sutherland</a> – who previously worked in reactor design at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology – continued to develop and refine the concept. The Z-pinch design builds on existing technology by creating a magnetic field within a closed space which contains the plasma for a sufficient period of time for a fusion reaction to occur. The Sheared Flow Stabilized Z-Pinch has a simple, linear configuration and uses sheared axial flows to prevent plasma instabilities from growing.</div>
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The concept is "similar to cars in the centre lane of the highway being prevented from changing lanes by faster moving traffic on either side." The unique aspect of the Z-pinch design is that it allows the superheated plasma to react and continue burning. Uniquely, the reaction would be largely self-sustaining, by continuously heating the plasma to maintain thermonuclear conditions. The reactor then generates the majority of its own magnetic fields by driving electrical currents into the plasma itself. This reduces the amount of required materials and allows researchers to shrink the overall size of the reactor dramatically. Energy generated by the reactor would transfer heat to a coolant that will spin a turbine and generate electricity, similarly to typical power reactors. This is seen as a "much more elegant solution" because the medium in which fusion is generated is also the medium in which the current required to confine it magnetically is driven.</div>
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<img alt="The Dynomak, one promising fusion approach developed by start-up CT Fusion in Seattle. The company is a spin out from 30 years of work at the University of Washington and is having problems raising capital." height="179" src="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58c97d05ebbd1a43b72e7284/1547271257767-5YAKTFC2PGQ418EO7H03/ke17ZwdGBToddI8pDm48kCj_u4a2LI_wi2_FDwMnNZMUqsxRUqqbr1mOJYKfIPR7LoDQ9mXPOjoJoqy81S2I8N_N4V1vUb5AoIIIbLZhVYxCRW4BPu10St3TBAUQYVKc4Lysh3VFauXnRCl13iKxTWYfeive_LYlHmi057mVsIw-AAy6wgjsUu47DwQPZSTW/Untitled.png?format=1000w" width="320" /></div>
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When compared with the conventional ITER design in France, the University of Washington's Z-Pinch Spheromak is projected to be much less expensive – roughly one-tenth the cost – while producing five times the amount of energy (that is, it is proposed to be 50 times more efficient than ITER). The UW researchers factored the cost of building a fusion reactor power plant using their design and compared that with building a coal power plant. They employed a metric called “overnight capital costs,” which includes all expenses, particularly startup infrastructure fees. A fusion power plant producing 1 gigawatt (1 billion watts) of power would cost $2.7 billion, while a coal plant of the same output would cost $2.8 billion, according to their analysis. While coal is an inexpensive carbon fuel, the fuel costs for fusion reactors are vanishingly small, far less than that of any carbon energy source.</div>
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9. <a href="http://generalfusion.com/" target="_blank"><b>General Fusion</b></a> --- General Fusion hopes to achieve nuclear fusion by mechanical (acoustic) compression (inertial confinement), which is way out there as an idea. The commercial-scale facility has been in development since 2002, with Jeff Bezos as a high-profile investor. It is based in Burnaby, British Columbia (Canada) and has an office in Washington, DC. General Fusion’s Magnetized Target Fusion system employs a sphere filled with molten lead-lithium that is pumped to form a vortex. A pulse of magnetically-confined plasma fuel is then injected into the vortex. Around the sphere, an array of pistons drive a pressure wave into the centre of the sphere, compressing the plasma to fusion conditions. This process is then repeated, while the heat from the reaction is captured in the liquid metal and used to generate electricity via a steam turbine.</div>
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<img alt="Image result for General Fusion" height="225" src="https://i.cbc.ca/1.3953596.1485457067!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/16x9_780/general-fusions.jpg" width="400" /></div>
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A major practical advantage is that the liquid metal wall absorbs energy from the fusion reaction which can then be pumped to heat exchangers. The liquid metal also protects the solid outer wall from damage, and can be combined with liquid lithium to breed tritium within the power plant. The company argues that using practical, existing technology (steam powered pistons are used to compress the plasma to fusion conditions), rather than the complex lasers or giant magnets found in other fusion approaches, steam pistons can be practically implemented in a commercial power plant. The compression target is comprised only of magnetized plasma (fusion fuel), which does not need to be manufactured and is effectively cost free.<br />
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The company has recently developed a plasma injector ten times more powerful than its predecessor (now the world's most powerful), which has begun operation at General Fusion’s facilities in Burnaby. This new PI3 injector is expected to contribute significantly to the commercialization of the company’s technology. General Fusion’s commercialization program has moved forward rapidly, building on plasma performance milestones achieved in its smaller plasma injectors. The company has developed and tested 18 increasingly sophisticated plasma injectors over the past decade, culminating in the PI3.</div>
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The Canadian government announced October 26, 2018 that it is investing $49.3 million in General Fusion. These new dollars from the Canadian Strategic Innovation Fund will create 400 new jobs, according to Ottawa. The funds will enable General Fusion to build a 70% scale prototype reactor for further research and development purposes. </div>
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General Fusion CEO Christofer Mowry told Business in Vancouver details from the Strategic Innovation Fund are confidential. “However, in general this is not a grant,” he said in an email.</div>
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The next generation prototype reactor is illustrated below. </div>
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Mr. Mowry concluded: “This investment by Canada in General Fusion’s transformative clean energy technology is evidence of its commitment to meeting the country’s climate change goals while fostering truly sustainable growth—sustainable growth that will be powered by the disruptively competitive economics and environmentally responsible benefits of fusion energy. This Strategic Innovation Fund investment and Canada’s expectation for a financial return on this investment are a vote of confidence in General Fusion’s ability to successfully commercialize its technology and in our ability to deliver new jobs and new opportunities throughout British Columbia and across Canada. We are grateful to Canada for its long-standing support of the company, support that has helped General Fusion become the world’s most advanced private fusion technology venture.”<br />
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<img alt="Image result for general fusion" height="266" src="https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/vancouver/2018/12/17/inside-the-burnaby-bc-lab-thats-forging-the-future-of-energy/_5_general_fusion_6.jpg" width="400" /></div>
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Brian Wang, of <a href="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/10/c49-3-million-investment-in-general-fusion-to-2023-nuclear-fusion-demo.html" target="_blank">Nextbigfuture</a>, interviewed Mr. Mowry (the CEO of General Fusion) in October 2018. Mr. Wang summarized the highlights of the discussion as follows: </div>
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General Fusion is rapidly pushing ahead to achieve commercialization and the next step is to make a 70% scale pilot plant that will prove out the viability of generating electricity from General Fusion’s magnetized target nuclear fusion. </div>
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General Fusion does not need to demonstrate fusion containment because they are pulsed power systems like a diesel engine or steampunk fusion.</div>
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The pilot system will prove three things:</div>
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1. Fusion conditions will be repeatably produced.</div>
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2. There will be a kill chain from neutrons to electrons (that is, problematic external neutron radiation will be minimal).</div>
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3. The economics will be validated.<br />
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Simulations will then be used to validate the economics and design specifics to move to a 100% system, which will be a full commercial system.</div>
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The Demo system will cost several hundred million dollars. General fusion is fundraising now. Several existing funders (notably, Jeff Bezos and the Canadian and Malaysian governments) are likely participants in the next round. However, the fundraising cannot have actual disclosure until it is completed. As of late 2016, General Fusion had received over $100 million in funding from a global syndicate of investors and the Canadian Government’s Sustainable Development Technology Canada (SDTC) fund. They now have another C$49 million from the Government of Canada.</div>
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All of the individual components have been matured enough through years of research to enable integration into a prototype pilot plant.</div>
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Over the five years of the demo plant, there will be design, construction and a nominal 18 months of testing.</div>
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The plasma injector component built so far is a 2-meter plasma injector. There will be a 3-meter injector for the pilot plant.<br />
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Titanium fabrication is with GE Additive as a partner.</div>
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The current prototype reactor (which can be seen when it was used as a set in the Canadian Science Fiction series <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1954347/" target="_blank">Continuum</a>) has 14 pistons and was not to achieve plasma compression but to work out other engineering issues.</div>
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The demo system will have several hundred pistons. Perhaps around 500.</div>
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The next system could have more or fewer pistons depending upon how experiments inform the design and how smoothly the plasma will need to be compressed.</div>
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The 70% prototype will utilize deuterium fusion and will not add tritium, because "addition of tritium is a well-understood process and would have a predictable impact." Tritium will be added in the follow-up commercial system.<br />
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While tritium is a hazardous radioactive material, the ultimate General Fusion design is intended to use tritium in an extremely safe manner, due to the incorporation of the molten lead absorption jacket. The use of lithium as an additive to the molten metal in the containment jacket will have the advantage of breeding additional tritium. Thus, the molten metal will be radioactive (the tritium will be extracted for re-use), but will also contain most of the neutron radiation produced by plasma compression. </div>
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10. <a href="http://www.helionenergy.com/?page_id=199" target="_blank"><b>Helion Energy</b></a> is an American company based in Redmond, Washington developing a magneto-inertial fusion power technology called The Fusion Engine. Helion Energy is a spin-off of Redmond company MSNW LLC that now develops space propulsion related technologies. I consider Helion's rapidly advancing and relatively low-cost program to be one of the most interesting fusion projects currently in development.</div>
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Helion's approach combines the stability of magnetic containment and once-per-second heating pulsed inertial fusion. They are developing a 50 MW scale system that is "truck-sized." Helion Energy was founded in 2013 by Dr. David Kirtley, Dr. John Slough, Chris Pihl, and Dr. George Votroubek. Investors in Helion include YCombinator, Mithril Capital Management and Capricorn Investment Group.</div>
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The management team won the 2013 National Cleantech Open Energy Generation competition and awards at the 2014 ARPA-E Future Energy Startup competition and were members of the 2014 YCombinator program. The company's Fusion Engine technology is based on the Inductive Plasmoid Accelerator (IPA) experiments performed at MSNW LLC from 2005 through 2012.</div>
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This system theoretically operates at 1 Hz, injecting plasma, compressing it to fusion conditions, expanding it and directly recovering the energy to provide electricity. The IPA experiments claimed 300 km/s velocities, deuterium neutron production, and 2 keV deuterium ion temperatures. Uniquely, Helion intends to use combined helium-3/deuterium fuel. This fuel allows essentially aneutronic fusion (releasing only 5% of its energy in the form of neutrons). The helium is captured and reused, eliminating supply concerns. The IPA experiments utilized deuterium-deuterium fusion, which produces a 2.4 MeV neutron per reaction.</div>
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Helion and MSNW published articles describing a deuterium-tritium implementation which is the easiest to achieve but generate 14 MeV neutrons.</div>
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Benefits of this very different technology will include: (1) By combining the stability of steady magnetic fusion and the heating of pulsed inertial fusion, a commercially practical system has been realized that is smaller and lower cost than existing programs. (2) Modular, Distributed Power: A "container sized," 50 MW module for base load power generation. (3) Self-Supplied Helium 3 Fusion: Pulsed, D-He3 fusion simplifies the engineering of a fusion power plant, lowers costs, and is even cleaner than traditional fusion. (4) Magnetic Compression --- Fuel is compressed and heated purely by magnetic fields operated with modern solid state electronics. This eliminates inefficient, expensive laser, piston, or beam techniques used by other fusion approaches. (5) Direct Energy Conversion: Enabled by pulsed operation, efficient direct conversion decreases plant costs and fusion’s engineering challenges. (6) Safety: With no possibility of melt-down, or hazardous nuclear waste, fusion does not suffer the drawbacks that make fission an unattractive alternative.</div>
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According to Elmar Moelzer (personal communication), Dr. Kirtley mentioned in the spring of 2018 that Helion Energy are now constructing a full-scale (or near full-scale) prototype that will have the potential for net energy output. As the Helion design is relatively compact, the company hopes to initiate experiments with the new design in 2019. </div>
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Helion Energy's goal is to construct a pulsed commercial nuclear fusion generator 1,000 times smaller, over 500 times cheaper, and realizable 10 times faster than other approaches. Helion Energy's work is based on a modest $10.6 million grant, received in 2015.</div>
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Helion is creating technology it calls “The Fusion Engine,” which will use helium from engine exhaust, according to the company’s website. The helium, along with deuterium fuel from seawater, would be heated to become plasma and then compressed with magnetic fields to reach fusion temperature, which is more than 100 million degrees.</div>
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Helion Energy has become quite active on Twitter announcing new devices and advances. Click <a href="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/10/helion-energys-breakthrough-nuclear-fusion-gets-10-6-million-in-new-funding.html#more-160304" target="_blank">here</a> for more information on their <a href="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/10/helion-energys-breakthrough-nuclear-fusion-gets-10-6-million-in-new-funding.html#more-160304" target="_blank">recent reported advancements</a>, which appear truly interesting. </div>
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For example, Helion Energy’s research team has discovered that under high voltage (10 kV+), 3-D printed polymers act like very high voltage Zener diodes. Unexpectedly, the printed plastic structure conducts electricity at high voltages, but only in one direction!</div>
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This group seem to be doing very interesting work on a quite modest budget, and based around a unique fusion concept. </div>
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11. <a href="https://www.nfri.re.kr/eng/pageView/74" target="_blank"><b>South Korea</b></a> --- Has a national fusion power development policy. The Korean Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) tokamak-type nuclear fusion reactor achieved a world record of 70 seconds in high-performance plasma operation in 2016.</div>
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12. <b><a href="http://english.ipp.cas.cn/rh/east/" target="_blank">China</a> </b>--- is conducting extensive research, and reports a good record for maintaining high temperature plasmas (plasma duration). The <a href="http://english.ipp.cas.cn/rh/east/" target="_blank">Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak</a> (EAST Reactor) is its primary research and development site, located within the Dongpu Science Island, a large research campus that is situated on Lakeshore Peninsula in China’s Anhui Province. The Hefei Institutes of Physical Science is directly responsible for the project, working under the direction of the government-run Chinese Academy of Sciences.</div>
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China currently plans <a href="https://www.iter.org/mag/3/22" target="_blank">two further generations of reactors after EAST</a> (see below).</div>
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As time has passed, even since the first draft of this post, China has taken increasing steps to move, possibly permanently, into the lead internationally, as commitment to fusion power research and development has been weaker than one might expect for such a critical technology at the national level almost everywhere. The Chinese appear confident to move forward in areas where others are hesitant or conservative, though <a href="https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge" target="_blank">critics point out</a> that they offer (and publish) few details of their work.<br />
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In March 2019, Chinese researchers predicted that the nation’s next generation <a href="https://futurism.com/the-byte/china-artificial-sun-operational-2020?utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_03cd0a26cd-f9f6cd8fbb-249590197&mc_cid=f9f6cd8fbb&mc_eid=a9c826c250&utm_source=The+Future+Is&utm_campaign=f9f6cd8fbb-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_12_19_07_06&fbclid=IwAR1zT9xi4pUnKpAg6BspeAjT4SUQ_uzN5J3FSFUgCtxhhhjgkPz_o6raZQc" target="_blank">HL-2M tokamak would be built before the end of 2019</a>. In November 2019, Duan Xuru, one of the scientists working on the project, provided an update, saying that construction was going smoothly and that the device should be operational in 2020.<br />
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Fusion physicist James Harrison, who isn’t involved with the project, stated the following to Newsweek: “HL-2M will provide researchers with valuable data on the compatibility of high-performance fusion plasmas with approaches to more effectively handle the heat and particles exhausted from the core of the device. This is one of the biggest issues facing the development of a commercial fusion reactor, and the results from HL-2M, as part of the international fusion research community, will influence the design of these reactors.”<br />
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<a href="https://www.neimagazine.com/news/newschina-completes-new-tokamak-7531412" target="_blank">Nuclear Engineering International reported the following</a> on November 29, 2019:<br />
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China has completed the construction of the HL-2M tokamak fusion reactor at a research centre in Chengdu, the capital city of southwest China’s Sichuan province.<br />
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The tokamak will become operational in 2020, Xinhua reported on 27 November 2019, noting that installation work has gone smoothly since the delivery of the coil system in June. The new apparatus, with a more advanced structure and control mode, is expected to generate plasmas hotter than 200 million degrees Celsius, said Duan Xuru, head of the Southwestern Institute of Physics (SWIP) under the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC). China has already spent close to a billion dollars on the project. The facility will provide key technical support for China's participation in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (Iter) project, as well as the self-designing and building of fusion reactors, he noted. China is a member of ITER, under construction in France, along with the European Union, the US, India, Japan, South Korea and Russia.<br />
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HL-2M, built by the Southwestern Institute of Physics, is an upgrade to China’s previous model, the HL-2A – one of three major domestic tokamaks now in operation in China. The other two are the EAST machine at the Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (ASIPP) in Hefei and <a href="https://alltheworldstokamaks.wordpress.com/gallery-of-external-views/jtext/" target="_blank">J-TEXT</a> at the Huazhong University of Science and Technology (HUST).<br />
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China started nuclear fusion research in the 1960s and included construction of the HL-1 (upgrade HL-1M) in SWIP and other small tokamaks such as the KT-5 in the University of Sciences and Technology of China (USTC) and the upgraded CT-6B at the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IP CAS) in Beijing as well as the first domestic superconducting tokamak, the medium sized tokamak HT-7 at ASIPP.<br />
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These are all intended to pave the way for the <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Fusion_Engineering_Test_Reactor" target="_blank">China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor</a></b> (CFETR), the preliminary conceptual design of which was finished in 2015, with the engineering design started in 2017. CFETR is intended for steady-state operation, as well as tritium self-sustainment. In phase one it should have 200MW fusion power and in phase two it should have power of 1GW. It aims to bridge the fusion experiments between ITER and DEMO --- the proposed nuclear fusion power station expected to build upon Iter. DEMO is seen as the next step towards a "first of a kind" commercial station. CFETR aims to provide DEMO validation.<br />
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ENN Energy announced a collaboration with Princeton University in 2019, with the intention of building two further fusion reactors in China (see entry #33).<br />
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The Chinese are better known for refining existing designs in all areas of technology, rather than for fundamental innovation in design itself. For example, all of China's fusion energy projects are built around the tokamak concept. Some researchers seek designs other than the tokamak, as they question, fundamentally, whether a tokamak can serve as a practical reactor. </div>
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Dr. Thomas McGuire, head of the team working on the Compact Fusion Reactor program for Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works advanced projects division, had this to say on the matter in an interview with Aviation Week in 2014:</div>
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“The problem with tokamaks is that ‘they can only hold so much plasma, and we call that the beta limit,’ <a href="https://www.blogger.com/researchers%20to%20question%20whether%20a%20tokamak%20might%20ever%20be%20able%20to%20serve%20as%20the%20basis%20for%20a%20practical%20reactor.%20Dr.%20Thomas%20McGuire,%20head%20of%20a%20team%20working%20on%20a%20novel%20Compact%20Fusion%20Reactor%20program,%20or%20CFR,%20for%20Lockheed%20Martin%E2%80%99s%20Skunk%20Works%20advanced%20projects%20division,%20had%20this%20to%20say%20on%20the%20matter%20in%20an%20interview%20with%20Aviation%20Week%20in%202014:%20%E2%80%9CThe%20problem%20with%20tokamaks%20is%20that%20%E2%80%98they%20can%20only%20hold%20so%20much%20plasma,%20and%20we%20call%20that%20the%20beta%20limit,%E2%80%99%20McGuire%20says.%20Measured%20as%20the%20ratio%20of%20plasma%20pressure%20to%20the%20magnetic%20pressure,%20the%20beta%20limit%20of%20the%20average%20tokamak%20is%20low,%20or%20about%20%E2%80%985%%20or%20so%20of%20the%20confining%20pressure,%E2%80%99%20he%20says.%20Comparing%20the%20torus%20to%20a%20bicycle%20tire,%20McGuire%20adds,%20%E2%80%98if%20they%20put%20too%20much%20in,%20eventually%20their%20confining%20tire%20will%20fail%20and%20burst%E2%80%94so%20to%20operate%20safely,%20they%20don%E2%80%99t%20go%20too%20close%20to%20that.%E2%80%99%E2%80%9D" target="_blank">McGuire says</a>. Measured as the ratio of plasma pressure to the magnetic pressure, the beta limit of the average tokamak is low, or about ‘5% or so of the confining pressure,’ he says. Comparing the torus to a bicycle tire, McGuire adds, ‘if they put too much in, eventually their confining tire will fail and burst—so to operate safely, they don’t go too close to that.’”</div>
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13. <b><a href="https://lppfusion.com/company-milestones/" target="_blank">LPPFusion</a> </b>--- Lawrenceville Plasma Physics is also developing aneutronic fusion on a "shoestring" budget. LPPFusion’s official mission is "to provide environmentally safe, clean, cheap and unlimited energy for everyone through the development of Focus Fusion technology, based on the Dense Plasma Focus device and hydrogen-boron fuel."</div>
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<img alt="Image result for LPPFusion" height="235" src="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/9a2c8bc6d0b8295972f662aa27405f3b-730x430.jpg" width="400" /></div>
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The company's nuclear fusion R&D project was initially funded by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and is now backed by over eighty private investors, including the Abell Foundation of Baltimore. The company is currently performing experiments with beryllium electrodes in collaboration with the University of California at San Diego <i>Center for Energy Research,</i> with the intention of achieving nuclear fusion via ion energy. This method (similarly to that of TAE) yields a flowing electric current and is radiation-free.</div>
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The company explains (2019):</div>
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The dense plasma focus device (DPF), for solid physical reasons, has a fusion output that increases sharply with electrical current—approximately as current to the fifth power. In other words, if current goes up by 2, yield goes up by 25 or 32. This scaling law, which works for smaller DPF devices, has been interrupted for larger ones—they don’t get the yield expected from the scaling law. We believe this problem is due to the larger impurities that powerful DPFs have produced. We anticipate that with low impurities our initial experiments with pure deuterium should get our fusion yield up from about ¼ J — LPP Fusion’s best result with tungsten electrodes — to over 2 Joules, that is, an eightfold improvement.</div>
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14. <b><a href="http://www.ccfe.ac.uk/MAST.aspx" target="_blank">MAST</a> </b>(Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak) upgraded 2017 – Culham Centre for Fusion Energy, Oxfordshire, England, developed in collaboration with the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. MAST is described as the UK's fusion energy experiment. Along with NSTX-U at Princeton, MAST is one of the world's three leading spherical tokamaks (STs). Experiments on MAST are seen as important because they test ITER physics in new regimes and they help determine the long-term potential of the ST, which may eventually be suitable as the basis for a power station. A design based on MAST may lead to a compact Component Test Facility, which would reduce risk and accelerate the development of commercial fusion power. Many experiments on MAST are carried out as collaborations with UK universities, other Euratom Associations and with non-European fusion laboratories. Several are joint experiments with other tokamaks usually under the auspices of International Tokamak Physics Activities expert groups.</div>
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Over 30,000 man-made ‘stars' have now been created by experiments inside MAST. They have provided a wealth of data, enabling many advances in key research areas including plasma instabilities and start-up methods. This is assisted by MAST's suite of diagnostics for analyzing plasmas, which is considered to be "among the best of any tokamak now operating." The Culham Centre for Fusion Energy is implementing a major upgrade that will give MAST expanded and unique capabilities. The features of the upgrade include: (1) An increase in the pulse length by a factor approaching ten; (2) Increased heating power; (3) Better control and pumping necessary to contain the resulting higher temperature, longer-pulse plasmas; and (4) Capability to test advanced 'divertor' solutions to handle high exhaust powers from the plasma. These new capabilities will allow scientists to study plasmas which approach ‘steady-state' conditions – operating regimes that could be used for the design of future fusion machines, which must run for hours or days rather than the seconds of today's devices.</div>
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15. The <b>Joint European Torus (<a href="http://www.ccfe.ac.uk/JET.aspx" target="_blank">JET</a>)</b>, first operational in 1983, and also located at the Culham Centre for Fusion Energy in Oxfordshire, remains the world’s largest and most powerful tokamak, and will continue to be the focal point of the European fusion research program until the very large scale ITER reactor is in place. JET is the only device currently operating that can use the deuterium-tritium fuel mix that will be required for commercial fusion power. Since it began operating in 1983, JET has made major advances in the science and engineering of fusion, increasing confidence in the suitability of the tokamak for future power production. Milestones at JET have included the world's first controlled release of deuterium-tritium fusion power (1991) and the world record for fusion power (16 megawatts in 1997). In recent years, JET has carried out work to assist the design and construction of ITER (which is modelled on the JET design). After more than 30 years of successful operation, JET remains closely involved in testing plasma physics, systems and materials for ITER. The JET facilities are collectively used by all European fusion laboratories under the EUROfusion consortium. About 350 scientists from Europe, plus more from around the globe, participate in JET experiments each year, coordinated by a program management unit.</div>
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The Culham Centre for Fusion Energy is responsible for the operation of the JET facilities, via a contract between the European Commission and the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority. JET is operated under a four-year €283m contract that expires in 2018. About 88% of the running costs of JET are paid for by the EU, which has caused worry about the fate of the lab after Brexit. The UK government has announced that it will continue to fund the JET nuclear-fusion experiment until at least 2020, despite the country’s intention to leave the European Union (EU) in March 2019. JET is operated by the European Consortium for the Development of Fusion Energy, which receives about half of its funding through the EU’s Euratom Horizon 2020 program. In its bid to renew the contract, the UK Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy stated that it will continue to pay its “fair share” of JET running costs until 2020. Industry Secretary Greg Clark commented: “JET is a prized facility at the centre of the UK’s global leadership in nuclear fusion research.”</div>
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16. <a href="https://www.iter.org/" target="_blank"><b>ITER</b></a>, the <b>International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor</b>, now being constructed at Cadarache in France, will be a scaled-up version of JET, with linear dimensions twice the size, and ten times the plasma volume. <a href="http://www.ccfe.ac.uk/ITER.aspx" target="_blank">ITER </a>is currently the world's largest and best-funded fusion power development program. It is NOT a compact reactor design (in fact, the ITER project is now coming under criticism as "old tech").</div>
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The development of ITER has run years behind schedule, as it is constrained by "plodding and weakly committed" international bureaucracies, consisting of 35 nations, led --- and sometimes unwillingly funded --- by China, the European Union, India, Japan, Korea, Russia and the United States. ITER proposes to develop the first fusion device to produce net energy over sustained time periods, though it is not my personal pick to be the first to achieve this milestone. A goal of first plasma has been set for December 2025, though note that ITER has a lengthy history of setting the goalposts back.</div>
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The large scale of the ITER project will very likely have benefits for further scientific work, but no commercial fusion reactor will pursue its now quite outmoded design.</div>
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While I am not listing it separately, France has a longstanding Tokamak program that is independent of ITER, though now devoted to component development for the ITER reactor. France operated the Tore Supra reactor from 1988-2010, and in 2013, introduced the upgraded <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WEST_(formerly_Tore_Supra)" target="_blank">WEST Tokamak</a> (Tungsten --- chemical symbol "W" --- Environment in Steady-state Tokamak). Earlier generation tokamaks had included the Tokamak of Fontenay-aux-Roses and the Petula reactor. </div>
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The Tore Supra was for a lengthy period the only tokamak of its size with superconducting toroidal magnets, allowing for the creation of a strong permanent toroidal magnetic field. After a major upgrade to install tungsten walls and a divertor, the tokamak was renamed WEST.</div>
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WEST is situated at the nuclear research center of Cadarache, Bouches-du-Rhône in Provence, one of the sites of the Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique. Tore Supra operated between 1988 and 2010. Its goal was to create long-duration plasmas. The upgrade to WEST took place between 2013 and 2016. WEST has been operational since 2016.</div>
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Tore Supra still holds the record of the longest plasma duration time for a tokamak (6 minutes 30 seconds and over 1000 MJ of energy injected and extracted, set in 2003), and it allowed researchers to test critical parts of equipment such as plasma facing wall components and superconducting magnets of the type that will be used in its successor, ITER.</div>
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17. <a href="https://www.360cities.net/nl/image/large-helical-device-japan" target="_blank"><b>Japanese Large Helical Device</b></a> (<a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8252874/" target="_blank"><b>LHD</b></a>). This is the world's second largest stellarator, after the Wendelstein 7-X, and the world's largest helical fusion reactor. The Large Helical Device is located in Toki, Gifu, Japan, belonging to the National Institute for Fusion Science. The LHD employs a heliotron magnetic field originally developed in Japan. <a href="http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2017/ph241/he1/" target="_blank">Qingping He</a>, of Stanford University, explains that a problem with tokamaks is that, due to the doughnut shape, magnetic fields are denser on the inside of the doughnut than on the outside. This can cause plasma to leak out of confinement, leading to decreased fusion performance or even damaging the reactor (as occurred with India's SST-1 in December 2017). Known solutions prevent the tokamak from operating continuously, as they require a changing field. Therefore, the stellarator twists the doughnut along the inner axis of the doughnut. This means that some parts of the inside of the doughnut are now flipped to the outside (analogously to a Mobius strip), preventing the concentration of magnetic fields along the inside of the device. Since no changes or adjustments to the field are thus necessary, the stellarator can operator continuously.</div>
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One form of the stellarator is the heliotron, which twists the confinement regions into a helix. The largest heliotron in the world is the Large Helical Device in Japan. Currently several techniques are employed. The first is neutral beam injection, by which neutral particles are beamed into the confinement chamber, colliding with the plasma. The magnetic fields in the chamber maintain the neutral particles in the plasma, where they transfer their energy to the plasma. These beams can then be injected tangentially to the flow of plasma, which also helps to increase the overall speed of the plasma. Other techniques employed include electron cyclotron resonance heating and ion cyclotron radio frequency acceleration, the latter of which bombards the plasma with radio waves to heat it. There is a plan to increase the density of the plasma by directly injecting frozen hydrogen pellets and researching possible optimizations for their injection. Supercooling of the superconductors used to create the magnetic fields will also be investigated. This strategy will increase the strength of the magnetic fields. It is hoped that the helical design will prove feasible for large scale commercial fusion reactors.</div>
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18. <a href="http://www.jt60sa.org/b/index.htm" target="_blank"><b>Japanese advanced superconducting tokamak JT-60SA</b></a>. As a project conducted under the Broader Approach Agreement between Europe and Japan, the Satellite Tokamak Programme is upgrading the JT-60U tokamak in Naka, Japan to the advanced superconducting tokamak JT-60SA, re-employing the site buildings, auxiliaries, neutral beams, and some power supplies to support the exploitation of ITER and to promote research and development towards the next-stage device, <a href="https://www.iter.org/mag/3/22" target="_blank">DEMO</a> (see below).</div>
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19. <a href="https://lasers.llnl.gov/science/ignition" target="_blank"><b>National Ignition Facility</b></a> | Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory --- In the case of fusion power, “ignition” refers to the moment when the energy from a controlled fusion reaction outstrips the rate at which x-ray radiation losses and electron conduction cool the implosion: as much or more energy “out” than “in.” One of the goals of the NIF is to create a self-sustaining (inertial confinement) nuclear fusion reaction by focusing a 500 trillion watt laser on a 150 mcg deuterium-tritium capsule for 20 billionths of a second.</div>
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The NIF states: "Achieving ignition would be an unprecedented, game-changing breakthrough for science and could lead to a new source of boundless clean energy for the world. The goal of current NIF experiments is to increase the density of the hot spot by a factor of three at about the same temperature as already achieved. Under those conditions, the fusion reaction rate would be sufficient to generate ignition. Current experiments routinely produce a density sufficient to “stop,” or absorb the energy from alpha particles (nuclei of helium atoms) produced by the fusion reactions in the hot spot. This process, known as alpha heating, further heats the assembled fuel and enhances the energy yield. This is a critical milestone on the road to ignition.</div>
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Team member Sebastien Le Pape <a href="https://physicsworld.com/a/giant-lasers-pass-new-milestone-towards-fusion-energy/" target="_blank">stated in 2018</a> that new experiments have created a greater density and pressure within the hotspot and about twice as much heating by alpha particles. Although the latest energy output is less than a thirtieth of that needed for ignition, he points out that self-heating makes the fusion process highly nonlinear. What is crucial, he says, is generating a “burning plasma”, in which alpha particles dump more energy in the hot spot than is lost through radiation and electron conduction. Reaching this point, he estimates, will require a fusion energy of around 150 kJ. “We are much closer to that threshold than we were before,” he explains.</div>
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The team is now using capsules and hohlraums (cavities whose walls are in radiative equilibrium with the radiant energy within the cavity) with diameters about 10% larger than before. The larger capsules absorb more energy, which should make them collapse more quickly and generate more fusion reactions. Having carried out eight laser shots since January, he states that the preliminary results look promising. He reiterates, “Nothing is telling us that we can’t make a burning plasma.” </div>
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Le Pape believes a burning plasma could be achieved within two years if the group can solve additional engineering problems. As to how much longer it will then take to reach ignition, he refuses to speculate. “It is really hard to answer that question,” he clarifies. “It depends on what challenges we find.”</div>
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20. <a href="https://www.thebetterindia.com/146867/steady-state-superconducting-tokamak-reactor-india/" target="_blank"><b>Steady State Tokamak </b>(<b>SST-1</b>)</a>. The <a href="http://www.ipr.res.in/old-website/aboutus.html" target="_blank">Institute for Plasma Research</a> (IPR) of India has developed the SST-1 as its national experimental fusion reactor, describing it as having "unique capacities." It is characterized as "one of only a handful of reactors" built with a superconducting magnetic confinement design. The SST-1 was fully commissioned in 2013 after 19 years of development. Within two years, the SST-1 produced repeatable plasma discharges up to ~ 500 ms with plasma currents greater than 75,000 A. In December 2017, the toroidal magnet system became damaged, causing a temporary closure of the facility. By this time, the reactor had conducted about 20 experiments. Repairs are currently under way, with plans to demonstrate the reactor at the 27th International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Fusion Energy Conference in Gandhinagar, Gujarat in October 2018. The SST-1 is the only Tokamak in the world to operate its toroidal magnets in a two-phase flow. This offers diversified results for fusion study. The former Director of the IPR, Prof. Dhiraj Bora, has stated that the SST-1 achievements have set India at par with China and South Korea as one of the eight (leading) participants in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). In my view, this description is clearly an exaggeration, but it is nonetheless gratifying that India has also made a commitment to develop fusion power, and the unique design will certainly be of interest for future research.</div>
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<img alt="India's Fusion reactor SST 1 " height="239" src="https://www.thebetterindia.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/W149_pasted_16.jpeg" width="320" /></div>
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21. <b><a href="http://www.miftec.com/" target="_blank">MIFTI</a> </b>(Magneto-Inertial Fusion Technologies, Inc.) was founded in 2008 by scientists from the University of California Irvine. It has a <a href="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/10/nuclear-fusion-z-pinch-progress-with-staged-z-pinch-ltd-10ma-generator.html" target="_blank">sister company, MIFTEC</a>, under the same management. MIFTI is developing thermonuclear fusion energy to power cities, transportation, space vehicles, military vehicles, and ships from fusion; and MIFTEC is developing a fusion-based generator for the abundant production of low-cost medical isotopes, which are currently in very short supply.</div>
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For over 25 years, these scientist have researched and refined a method of controlled thermonuclear fusion, based on Staged Z-Pinch. This concept has predicted a net gain of controlled thermonuclear fusion energy that can possibly solve the world’s energy problems. A by-product of this fusion reaction can also be used to generate radioisotopes that are employed in nuclear medicine procedures worldwide.</div>
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MIFTI states that it is the only company in the world that has researched staged Z-pinch technology, utilizing computational modelling, computer simulations, and laboratory experiments, for over the last twenty years. Only recently have MIFTI’s scientists been able to overcome the instability problems of Z-pinch. This problem was solved, because sophisticated software was made available to the MIFTI scientists at the University of California, Irvine by the U.S. Air Force.</div>
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Years of experimentation and understanding the science have led MIFTI’s scientists to conclude that the staged Z-pinch fusion approach will change the landscape of electricity production globally by providing a net energy gain from ten to fifty times the energy used to create the process. MIFTI’s technology will have positive worldwide consequences, not only for energy, but will solve the current crisis of worldwide shortages in nuclear medicine, as staged Z-pinch is very flexible and can be applied to a number of earth’s dilemmas. MIFTI’s research is currently funded through a research grant from the Department of Energy Advanced Research Projects Agency (DOE/ARPA-E) and private investment.</div>
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<a href="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/10/nuclear-fusion-z-pinch-progress-with-staged-z-pinch-ltd-10ma-generator.html" target="_blank">From Next Big Future</a>: MIFTI is a Department of Energy Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy (DOE/ARPA-E) awardee and benefits from support by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). MIFTI also holds a fully executed work package agreement with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and is in negotiations for a work package agreement with Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has shown interest in using MIFTI thermonuclear fusion power devices for use in space craft propulsion systems. The U.S. Navy has also shown an interest in MIFTI’s fusion power device for use in nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers.</div>
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The University of Reno Nevada National Terawatt Facility and commercial company, US Nuclear and MIFTEC, were able to generate the most powerful neutron flux from fusion power ever achieved by a private company. They will scale up to a 10 MegaAmp version of their machine. This will have ten times the amperage and should generate 100 times the neutron flux. They expect to generate a neutron flux on the trillion scale, which is clearly greater than the 10 billion required to produce commercial quantities of critical, low-cost radioisotopes that are in short supply. </div>
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MIFTEC has contracted with a leading design engineer from a National Lab and has already completed the plans for its first commercial machine called the Staged Z Pinch (SZP) LTD-X (linear transformer driver-X) 10 MegaAmp generator.</div>
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22. Somewhat differently than any other project I am aware of, <a href="http://www.psatellite.com/technology/fusion/" target="_blank"><b>Princeton Satellite Systems</b></a> (<b>PSS</b>) and the Princeton Plasma Physics Lab (PPPL) are collaborating on a new nuclear fusion technology to power compact spacecraft both within and outside the solar system, with even nearby star missions being seen as feasible. Direct Fusion Drive is a a revolutionary direct-drive, fusion-powered rocket engine. Compact and clean-burning, each 1-10 MW Direct Fusion Drive (DFD) engine can produce both power and thrust with high specific power. Power and propulsion are thus generated from a single engine, which shortens trip times and increases capability for a wide variety of space missions: robotic missions to the outer planets, human missions to the moon or Mars, and missions to near interstellar space.</div>
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DFD is based on the Princeton Field-Reversed Configuration reactor (PFRC), or Rotamak, a technology developed by Dr. Sam Cohen of the Princeton Plasma Physics Lab. The reactor employs a unique “odd-parity” RF heating method, producing a steady-state, closed-field configuration with a highly efficient current drive. The PFRC-2 (prototype) experimental machine is currently in operation at PPPL.</div>
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23. <a href="https://appliedfusionsystems.com/" style="font-weight: bold;" target="_blank">Applied Fusion Systems</a> (sister company <b><a href="https://www.pulsarfusion.com/" target="_blank">PULSAR Fusion</a></b>, see below). The UK company Applied Fusion Systems, affiliated with the Culham Science Centre in Oxfordshire, are currently <a href="https://www.scitecheuropa.eu/british-startup-develop-nuclear-fusion-rocket-engine/88768/" target="_blank">filing a patent for a new nuclear fusion rocket engine</a>, which could employ a compact nuclear fusion reactor as the actual motor of the rocket, a development which the principals believe could pave the way for high speed, interstellar space travel. (Travel between planets within the solar system would be reduced to weeks or months.)</div>
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The proposed engine is referred to as an ion thruster, and can work by using a plasma propellant which is accelerated to a high speed by a strong electromagnetic field. Ion thrusters are already deployed to maneuver satellites in space, but these are seen as needing to be adapted by moving away from solid and liquid combustion engines in order to progress with the technology referred to as Nuclear Enhanced Air-breathing Rockets (NEAR).</div>
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Significant developments in ion thrusters could potentially pave the way for high speed, interstellar space travel. Richard Dinan, the CEO of Applied Fusion, states, “It’s not a question of [if] you think it’s coming or not. It is coming, for sure. It is humanity’s only shot at interstellar space travel in the near future.”<br />
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Mr. Dinan is also CEO of <b><a href="https://www.pulsarfusion.com/" target="_blank">PULSAR Fusion</a></b>, a London-based company that was founded in 2015. PULSAR Fusion states that it develops and manufactures components for use in Nuclear Fusion reactors and associated applications. The companies focuses include the control of plasma flow and plasma facing materials, specialist robotics, divertors, high temperature superconductors (HTS) & plasma control technologies.<br />
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PULSAR Fusion's objective is to grow its existing portfolio of advanced, patent pending components and to acquire additional strategic fusion energy assets., investing in technologies that are believed to offer future growth prospects as the nuclear fusion sector matures.<br />
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Additionally, Mr. Dinan is the author of “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Fusion-Age-Modern-Nuclear-Reactors/dp/1999804511/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=The+Fusion+Age%3A+Modern+Nuclear+Fusion+Reactors&qid=1571897597&sr=8-1" target="_blank"><b>The Fusion Age: Modern Nuclear Fusion Reactors</b></a>” and he has raised several million pounds in private investment.<br />
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Mr. Dinan <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-dinan-808a835a/?originalSubdomain=uk" target="_blank">states on his Linked-In page</a> that "Nuclear Fusion’s greatest promise lies beyond power stations; AFS is pursuing D-He3 fusion for its off-grid possibilities such as defence, transport and space exploration."<br />
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D-He3 fusion is an aneutronic reaction which requires the use of hypothetically achievable higher temperatures and pressures so as to minimize the release of potentially harmful neutron radiation, while directly generating an electrical charge, which can be deployed more directly in a range of applied technologies.<br />
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24. <a href="https://www.hb11.energy/" style="font-weight: bold;" target="_blank">HB11 Energy</a><b> </b>(updated 18 MAY 2020). As we have discussed, most current fusion energy designs are built around deuterium-tritium (DT) fusion, a "first generation" approach that releases high levels of problematic neutron radiation as the bearer of the energy of the reaction. HB11 is focused on a new methodology to develop an aneutronic boronic fusion reactor. The primary obstacle to boronic fusion is that it requires almost ten times the energy that is necessary to produce a deuterium-tritium reaction, but with the HB11 method, the energy is generated by an "avalanche" of "chirped" laser-generated waves, rather than by heat.<br />
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A recent in-depth overview was published in <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/hydrogen-boron-fusion-could-be-a-dream-come-true/" target="_blank">The Asia Times</a> on April 19, 2020. Click <b><a href="https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/hydrogen-boron-fusion-could-be-a-dream-come-true/" target="_blank">here </a></b>for this article.<br />
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A University of New South Wales (Australian) spinoff, HB11 Energy makes the following statement: Two recent scientific breakthroughs have opened a new way to fusion reactions, predicted by our founder in the 1960’s. It involves the reaction between hydrogen H and the boron isotope 11 (HB11) as uncompressed solid state fuel within an extremely high trapping magnetic field. Both of these conditions have been demonstrated by experiments and following predictions from computations.<br />
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Our intellectual property exploits the combination of these two techniques for generating power. A scientific paper accepted for publication describes the road map that has deemed the approach by one of the founders with his team as a viable method based on the experimentally confirmed reaction gains one billion times higher than classical values, placing it far ahead of any DT fusion approaches.<br />
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Other advantages: Unlike Deuterium-Tritium fusion and fission techniques, the HB11 reaction is sufficiently clean with respect to production of any harmful by-products or radiation ("naked helium atoms," stripped of electrons, and thus positively charged, rather than neutrons are released). It thus has the potential to create electricity directly without the need for a heat exchanger and steam turbine to generate electricity as required for coal, fission nuclear power or planned plasma confinement fusion stations. This will allow power stations to be built with a relatively small capital investment and footprint based on presently achieved extreme laser technology.<br />
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Further, the company states: We expect to be able to provide energy for
about ¼ of the price of coal fired power, without any carbon emissions or
radioactive by-products, which will be disruptive to the power industry. With the small size and footprint of a HB11
power station, the addressable market is expected to reach further than the
power grid to applications such as ships, submarines, large factories or to
remote locations such as isolated towns and mine sites.<br />
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<span lang="EN-CA">HB11 Laser Boron Fusion Reactors will thus produce electricity at a quarter the price of of existing coal fired power, and
they will be much cheaper to build. </span>Technology already exists to allow the
development of an HB11 Laser Fusion Reactor, and the first prototype HB11 Laser Fusion
Reactor could be built in just 5 to 10 years. Only modest investment is required for
further research to clarify some of the scientific methods and engineering
requirements.</div>
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<span lang="EN-CA">These reactors will </span>not generate any form of nuclear waste nor generate any sort of nuclear by-product that could be misused for unintended purposes.</div>
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<span lang="EN-CA">The actual cost to build these reactors
will be very low, significantly cheaper than existing coal fired power plants. </span>HB11 Fusion Reactors can be built anywhere
and need no water as they produce electricity directly, meaning that there will
not be the need for steam turbines.</div>
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<span lang="EN-CA">These reactors will be able to be built to
scale, meaning that smaller communities can build smaller reactors, larger
reactors can be built for large scale urban and industrial usage. </span>HB11 Fusion Reactors will be able to be
used in a variety of different situations, including ships and submarines,
industry and manufacturing, isolated communities or interconnected to major
power grids.</div>
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<span lang="EN-CA">Laser Boron Fusion Reactors will offer an
inexpensive, clean, long term solution, with no carbon emissions, no
radioactive waste and produce a very small environmental footprint. </span>Laser Boron Fusion offers an ideal,
affordable solution for a global clean energy future and can be one of the
major methods of combating climate change and global warming.<br />
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Science Alert <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/hydrogen-boron-nuclear-sphere-revolutionise-fusion-energy" target="_blank">published a discussion of the company's plan</a> on December 29, 2017, stating: Their hydrogen-boron reactor works by triggering an "avalanche" fusion reaction from a laser beam packing a quadrillion watts of power in just a trillionth of a second. "The fuels and waste are safe, the reactor won't need a heat exchanger and steam turbine generator, and the lasers we need can be bought off the shelf," says Warren McKenzie, managing director of HB11, which owns the patents to the new technology.<br />
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25. <a href="https://www.facebook.com/fuseenergytechnologies/?ref=py_c" target="_blank"><b>Fuse Energy</b></a> in Montreal does not have a public website, but has established a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/fuseenergytechnologies/?ref=py_c" target="_blank">Facebook page</a>. The company is headed by Max Yaney, who previous founded Titan Aerospace. Fuse intends to "take in ideas and then evaluate them." The company's stated missions are: (1) To bring fusion energy to life and create universal abundance; and (2) To solve our species' energy demands and to provide endless clean energy. A highly credentialed advisory panel has been assembled, including former Google staffers, among others.<br />
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To be blunt, Fuse Energy's goals, methods and design are presently quite vague. The company seems to have a "tech startup" feel. Time will tell if something more specific develops.<br />
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26. <b>First Light Fusion</b> was started in 2011 as a spin-out from Oxford University in the UK. The company is reported to have raised tens of millions of pounds from Parkwalk Associates. The goal of the company is to re-work "everything about inertial confinement fusion compression." The company are examining compression with a single laser, trying different target designs (encasing fuel in gels, glass, different target shapes and sizes, etc.). Dr. Stephen Chu (a Nobel Prize winner and former US Energy Secretary) sits on the company's science advisory board.<br />
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The company states the following:<br />
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First Light Fusion Ltd is a lean, focused and agile corporation researching energy generation by inertial confinement fusion. The company was spun out from the University of Oxford in June 2011 and is based near Oxford. First Light continues to work closely with the academic community, both in the UK and internationally. The company is well-funded by both institutional investors and private individuals.<br />
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Inertial confinement fusion for energy generation is a well-established research field and is being pursued in many laboratories worldwide, perhaps most notably in the US at the National Ignition Facility.<br />
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First Light is exploring a number of alternative research directions that harness the same fundamental physics, with the prime focus being power generation. First Light’s work to date has included theoretical analysis, detailed numerical simulations and experimental validation. This has allowed description of accessible parameters, and has led to a clear vision of the pathway to fusion.<br />
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First Light has also considered the costs and engineering practicalities of a reactor implementing its technology and can articulate a number of advantages over other approaches. We are pursuing pulsed power driver technology, which we believe will reduce costs by an order of magnitude.<br />
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Additionally, the energy focusing processes being pursued form the foundations of a new technological platform where secondary opportunities exist in a number of alternative applications, for example material processing and chemical manufacture.<br />
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An exhaustive project to test the viability of the company's proprietary fusion island concept by the UK Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) has recently concluded (2019) that the project is viable – giving First Light Fusion the green light to proceed with real-world tests of its technology.<br />
<br />
The company's fusion island sub-system is a unique design aspect, responsible not only for converting the fusion energy into heat but also for managing the fuel supply in a fusion power plant.<br />
<br />
It is novel because rather than encouraging a symmetrical implosion – an approach taking with traditional fusion reactor designs that is plagued with inherent instabilities in the reaction process – it harnesses the instabilities of the process to encourage an asymmetrical approach.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for fusion power" height="259" src="https://www.verdict.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/fusion-island-nuclear-1440x1167.jpg" width="320" /></div>
<br />
The design has the potential to achieve the net power gain because it tackles three of the biggest issues that have plagued fusion reactor design – with the recent <a href="https://www.verdict.co.uk/fusion-island-nuclear-reactor/" target="_blank">UKAEA study verifying that the fusion island successfully tackles these</a>.<br />
<br />
(1) The first is neutron damage, where over time radiation from the high-energy streams of neutrons that make up much of fusion energy cause damage to the structure of reactors. Neutron damage can be a problem in fission too, but it is far worse in fusion because the larger amounts of energy generated mean higher neutron energies.<br />
<br />
The way the fusion island handles these streams of neutrons means, according to First Light Fusion, that there is less damage to the structure – making the long-term running of the reactor in question more viable.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for first light fusion" height="180" src="https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/BlankSiteASPX/media/WNNImported/mainimagelibrary/reactor%20technology/First-Light-Fusion-Machine-3-(First-Light-Fusion).jpg?ext=.jpg" width="320" /></div>
<br />
(2) The second is heat flux, the density of energy flowing through the reactor. If there is too much energy concentrated in one place within a reactor for too long, this too can cause severe problems with its operation – something that the fusion island is designed to handle.<br />
<br />
(3) The third is tritium production. Tritium is one of the key fuels in most fusion reactor designs, as it is combined with deuterium to increase the rate at which the fusion reaction proceeds. With a half-life of only 12.3 years, tritium is exceptionally rare in nature.<br />
<br />
As a result, it can most efficiently be produced in the reactor itself through the exposure of a lithium-based coating on the reactor’s inner walls to neutron radiation. When lithium is exposed to neutron radiation, tritium is a naturally-occurring reaction product.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for first light fusion" height="180" src="https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ac0fcfea-e333-408d-9b06-2338760a49ed-161213014823/95/2016-pp-presentation-24-638.jpg?cb=1481593750" width="320" /></div>
<br />
Not only does the fusion island enable this reaction, the UKAEA study also confirming that its design allows the material to be pure lithium – removing the need for a lithium material to be custom-created for the design.<br />
<br />
“It is hard to overstate the importance of being able to make the power plant from existing materials, like natural lithium,” explains Nick Hawker, founder and CEO of First Light Fusion. “This has the potential to bring fusion power to market up to a decade sooner.”<br />
<br />
27. <a href="https://www.agnifusion.org/our-solution" target="_blank"><b>AGNI Fusion</b></a> is obviously in the early stages, having grown out of an award-winning science fair project in 2011, which was recognized by President Obama at the time.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Reactor Overview [1]-01.png" height="400" src="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58839c83cd0f6828c5b4f4f1/1523929485656-EOAPS4VD5AEXRKZQ5QE9/ke17ZwdGBToddI8pDm48kHrc1MjerlPyvrcskIUfn8l7gQa3H78H3Y0txjaiv_0fDoOvxcdMmMKkDsyUqMSsMWxHk725yiiHCCLfrh8O1z5QHyNOqBUUEtDDsRWrJLTm4LaxnXTLZEIl_I4gL2tysgVY3WZI8G1fr8m3QW-5OeUz2HyGJsYIrucoxYXQ_z6D/Reactor+Overview+%5B1%5D-01.png?format=500w" width="210" /><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Winner of the 2011 Intel International Science and Engineering Fair. Photo taken during a private briefing with President Obama.</div>
<br />
<img alt="Pictured from left: Eric Thomas, Barack Obama, Demitri Hopkins, Forrest Betton" height="281" src="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/58839c83cd0f6828c5b4f4f1/1557971377180-XW2ZHDN15IPM3Y8RO4PK/ke17ZwdGBToddI8pDm48kJ65sPVDsvT9s67ssP6FnshZw-zPPgdn4jUwVcJE1ZvWQUxwkmyExglNqGp0IvTJZUJFbgE-7XRK3dMEBRBhUpw32Uo1gQAv_K6biYcWSVw5pBmaYakBykZaSg4h6uTI2q3TAkeh6gRWPNiAfanpPYo/President+Obama+With+Eric+Thomas+%28Left%29%2C+Demitri+Hopkins%2C+%26+Forrest+Betton+%28Right%29.png?format=750w" width="400" /></div>
<br />
The AGNI group are attempting a beam approach to fusion, outlined as follows:<br />
<br />
<div class="" id="yui_3_17_2_1_1571016110761_180" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.7); font-family: proxima-nova; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: center; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<strong id="yui_3_17_2_1_1571016110761_179" style="overflow-wrap: break-word;">ION SOURCE</strong></div>
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Deuterium and He3 are injected into the chamber where they are ionized and accelerated into an ion beam.</div>
<div class="" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.7); font-family: proxima-nova; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: center; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<br /></div>
<div class="" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.7); font-family: proxima-nova; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: center; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<strong style="overflow-wrap: break-word;">MAGNETIC FOCUSING LENSES</strong></div>
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These lenses serve to excite the ion beam and control it so it doesn’t stray off course on the way to the target. They also serve to periodically increase the density to induce ionic heating through deuterium-helium-3 fusion.</div>
<div class="" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.7); font-family: proxima-nova; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: center; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<br /></div>
<div class="" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.7); font-family: proxima-nova; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: center; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<strong style="overflow-wrap: break-word;">TRITIUM TARGET</strong></div>
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The target is made of Lithium BoroTritide and has the highest density of Tritium by volume. Here, the excited deuterium hits the target with a large amount of kinetic energy and fuses with tritium, creating a vast surplus of energy. </div>
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<br /></div>
<h3 id="yui_3_17_2_1_1571016110761_191" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(64, 64, 64, 0.9); font-family: proxima-nova; font-size: 28px; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.26em; margin: 0px 0px 0.5em; text-align: center; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; white-space: pre-wrap;">
AGNI is expected to achieve:</h3>
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<strong style="overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: center;">16 million times</strong><span style="text-align: center;"> the efficiency of coal</span></div>
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<strong style="overflow-wrap: break-word;">10 times</strong> the efficiency of fission</div>
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<strong style="overflow-wrap: break-word;">No Waste</strong></div>
<div class="" style="background-color: white; color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.7); font-family: proxima-nova; font-size: 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: center; white-space: pre-wrap;">
<strong style="overflow-wrap: break-word;">Zero Emissions </strong></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
AGNI also intends to market the fusion product of their reactor design, as follows:<br />
<br />
The product of deuterium and tritium fusion is helium-4 and a neutron. Helium-4 is a rare resource that does not stick around the Earth once in the atmosphere, and is needed for scientific equipment like MRIs. The neutron is the main carrier of energy, holding 14.1 MeV, that will be used to power a steam turbine, generating electricity.<br />
<br />
28. <a href="https://www.hornetechnologies.com/" target="_blank"><b>Horne Technologies</b></a>. Based in Denver, this company's stated goal is to develop the world's first continuous-operation enabled, superconducting, high-beta fusion research device, with a design comparable to the Lockheed Martin approach, but ideally "simpler."<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Fusion vs. Fission" height="200" src="https://www.hornetechnologies.com/images/fissionfusion.jpg" width="400" /></div>
<br />
The company states:<br />
<br />
Fusion itself is fairly easy, even young people at the high school level have built simple fusion reactors called fusors for science projects. Why then do we not have all our electricity produced from fusion? The problem is optimization. Although fusion is easy, it is not easy to get energy from it. In fact no one has ever come close to break-even, the point at which you produce more energy than you use.<br />
<br />
Horne Technologies is here to change that. Our prototype is complete.<br />
<br />
Fortunately, and unfortunately, while it has been easy to burn fossil fuels on Earth for energy, this is not feasible in space. Without such an abundant energy source, expanding into the solar system will be very difficult. The space race of the 1960s created many of the technologies we use every day. Using this same methodology offers a great path to fusion.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Horne Technologies Large Vacuum Chamber" height="366" src="https://www.hornetechnologies.com/images/newchamber.png" width="400" /></div>
<br />
A hybrid approach and technology is being implemented to develop fusion technology for terrestrial and space energy applications. Fusion is the disruptive energy of the future.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="High-beta cusp field" height="400" src="https://www.hornetechnologies.com/images/cuspfield.png" width="397" /></div>
<br />
Four core technologies are combined with state of the art high-temperature superconductors to improve the performance of the fusion device:<br />
<br />
I) Inertial Electrostatic Heating (IEC)<br />
<br />
II) Superconducting, Magnetically-Shielded Grid<br />
<br />
III) High-Beta Capable Fusion Core<br />
<br />
IV) Ion-ion and ion-neutral thermalization mitigation optimization<br />
<br />
For 10 years Horne Technologies has been working on these fusion technologies to create optimized solutions for a viable fusion reactor for use in space and on Earth.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Horne Technologies' large vacuum chamber will house the second-generation core device. The second-generation will provide the optimization and parameter data to prove feasibility and acquire data to create a device capable of net energy.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Our second-generation device is a huge leap in technology:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
- Improved coil structure</div>
<div>
- Advanced cryogenic cooling</div>
<div>
- Advanced plasma diagnostics</div>
<div>
- Mitigation of the ion-ion thermalization loss mechanism</div>
<div>
- Validation of all required technologies</div>
<div>
- Final proof of concept</div>
</div>
<br />
29. <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a29427713/navy-compact-fusion-reactor/" target="_blank"><b>US Navy</b></a>. Popular Mechanics reported on October 10, 2019, that a patent filed by the U.S. Navy last month claims to have developed a compact Nuclear Fusion Reactor. Popular Mechanics notes that nuclear fusion has been touted as the ultimate energy source, generating enormous amounts of power with little to no harmful byproducts. However, no one has yet been able to mass produce or control large quantities of fusion energy, so designs for the reactor seemingly stretch the limits of science.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="image" height="200" src="https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/images/fusion2-1570736839.jpg?crop=1xw:1xh;center,top&resize=480:*" width="400" /></div>
<br />
The magazine reports:<br />
<br />
The U.S. Navy has filed a patent for a compact fusion reactor, according to exclusive reporting by The War Zone.<br />
<br />
The patent for the device was reportedly filed on March 22, 2019, and published late last month. This technology, by all accounts, is "a long shot." But, if successful, it would completely revolutionize how we power our world.<br />
<br />
In order to create fusion energy on Earth, scientists and engineers must build instruments that can contain gases that will reach temperatures of hundreds of millions of degrees in order to compel atomic nuclei to collide at high speeds to create a superheated plasma.<br />
<br />
One kilogram of fusion fuel produces the same amount of energy as 10 million kilograms of fossil fuels. It’s the perfect energy source; it doesn’t emit greenhouse gases or leave behind harmful byproducts such as nuclear waste—unlike nuclear fission. In fact, its sole byproduct is helium: an inert, extremely useful gas.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmznGESaxUBZhoA5Sy1k-Bi2capwlZ_fMo_BZqlIdw5wP-Sdf5V0ofNobKlZE5u3TRF0p3RPTHLtyOijDpmQDWgfceROuMiiyjToBpdXCE2Ysq_S-b_1_DxlWXdzFSS_2RaJCnmg/s1600/US+Navy+Fusion+Chart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="632" data-original-width="766" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmznGESaxUBZhoA5Sy1k-Bi2capwlZ_fMo_BZqlIdw5wP-Sdf5V0ofNobKlZE5u3TRF0p3RPTHLtyOijDpmQDWgfceROuMiiyjToBpdXCE2Ysq_S-b_1_DxlWXdzFSS_2RaJCnmg/s320/US+Navy+Fusion+Chart.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
Current reactors are approximately the size of a building; a relatively portable compact fusion reactor, one designed to power relatively small vehicles, would be a game-changer. The Chinese government, Lockheed Martin, and several other private companies have made inroads in shrinking the technology, and the Navy is investigating a unique approach. This device, according the The War Zone, could potentially fit on a boat or an aircraft. <br />
<br />
The success of the device, developed by researcher Salvatore Cezar Pais of the Aircraft Division of the Naval Air Warfare Center, relies on a dynamic fusor component. According to the patent, Pais’ plasma chamber contains several pairs of dynamic fusors, which rapidly spin and vibrate within the chamber in order to create a “concentrated magnetic energy flux” that can compress the gases.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7r7aZ5a_twoYW06R9akxVCx89HoYavZvymQgBNurx2WxdUrHNszyZAOo9NvAJGDbFWquYc8w_0rFEVQspUqc-Y31OeCvC7T2NDpWTJ9GRoE2l5QPBFc-1B9LlcZiQQmYvU7T_wA/s1600/US+Navy+Electric+Field.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="785" data-original-width="913" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7r7aZ5a_twoYW06R9akxVCx89HoYavZvymQgBNurx2WxdUrHNszyZAOo9NvAJGDbFWquYc8w_0rFEVQspUqc-Y31OeCvC7T2NDpWTJ9GRoE2l5QPBFc-1B9LlcZiQQmYvU7T_wA/s320/US+Navy+Electric+Field.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
Coated with an electrical charge, the cone-shaped fusors pump fuel gases such as Deuterium or Deuterium-Xenon into the chamber, which are then subjected to intense heat and pressure to create the nuclei-fusing reaction. In contrast, current technology at reactors around the world use superconductors to create a magnetic field.<br />
<br />
The War Zone reports that the device could potentially produce more than a terawatt of energy while only taking in power in the kilowatt to megawatt range.<br />
<br />
Dr. Matthew Moynihan is currently conducting a review of the US Navy proposal, aspects of which are unconventional and controversial (personal communication).<br />
<br />
30. <b><a href="https://gust.com/companies/convsci" target="_blank">Convergent Scientific, Inc</a></b>. (<b>CSI</b>) CSI has developed a variation of the Convergent Ion Focus (CIF) approach to fusion energy generation, which is capable of producing extremely energetic non-neutral plasmas at much lower relative input energy requirements. The design is based on 50 years of research, specifically the Inertial Electrostatic Confinement (IEC) design. The small company has built and tested one prototype, and intends to retrofit coal-fired power plants with convergent ion focus technology.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for Convergent Scientific, Inc." height="133" src="https://gust-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/startup/logo_image/6089/logo.png" width="400" /></div>
<br />
The principals of the company are:<br />
<br />
Robert Clarke Blair<br />
Chief Operating Officer<br />
<br />
Clarke has spent 25 years helping companies implement earned value and project management systems, with the last 14 years devoted to implementing Oracle/Primavera products, with emphasis on process improvement and enterprise-wide portfolio/resource management. He provides leadership and training to help organizations make the changes required (especially in human behavior) to implement enterprise-level project management software.<br />
<br />
Devlin Baker<br />
Chief Technology Officer<br />
<br />
Devlin holds Bachelors of Science degrees in Physics and Mathematics, Western Washington University, 2008, with additional concentrations in Electrical Engineering, Astronomy, and Geology. He has been involved in experimental physics, software development and computer aided design for the last eight years. He has been working with small scale electrostatic (IEC) fusion reactors since fabricating his first prototype in 2001.<br />
<br />
Joel Rogers<br />
Chief Technical Advisor<br />
<br />
Joel holds a Bachelor of Physics from MIT (1965) and a PhD in Nuclear Physics from UCLA (1969). He was a research scientist at Canada's "TRIUMF" in Vancouver, BC, from 1973 to 2004. He has published over 100 articles in refereed journals such as Physical Review, Nuclear Physics, and Nuclear Instruments and Methods. He is the holder of five U.S. patents, and the author of a currently pending patent, “Modular Apparatus for Confining a Plasma.”<br />
<br />
31. <b><a href="http://hyperv.com/about-us/" target="_blank">HyperV Technologies Corp</a></b>. is a privately held fusion energy research and development company founded by Dr. F. Douglas Witherspoon in 2004 and located in Chantilly, Virginia, U.S.A. The company combined with <a href="http://www.hyperjetfusion.com/" target="_blank"><b>HyperJet Fusion Corporation</b></a> in 2017 (see below), keeping the original address. The company specializes in the development of unique ultra-high performance plasma guns for use in fusion energy, plasma physics research, and industrial applications. The name HyperV comes from the word “HyperVelocity” and references the extremely high velocities achieved by plasma when formed and fired from the company's plasma guns.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for Magneto-Inertial Fusion Technologies, Inc" height="263" src="https://media.springernature.com/original/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs10894-015-0038-x/MediaObjects/10894_2015_38_Fig1_HTML.gif" width="400" /></div>
<br />
Since its establishment in 2004, HyperV Technologies Corp. has received funding through a series of research grants from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Fusion Energy Sciences (OFES). HyperV was awarded these grants and numerous SBIR’s, following a highly competitive proposal and rigorous scientific peer review process.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for Magneto-Inertial Fusion Technologies, Inc" height="235" src="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/pjmif-3-730x430.png" width="400" /></div>
<br />
In continuing the advancement of its fusion energy research and development effort, HyperV states that it has teamed with the "legendary" Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) of New Mexico. This HyperV/LANL partnership is focusing on the design, development and operation of the PLX-α experiment located at LANL in New Mexico and funded by the DOE Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy.<br />
<br />
In addition to its plasma gun development effort, HyperV is developing extremely fast fiber-coupled imaging systems for diagnostics applications in plasma physics, aerospace applications and other industrial processes.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Dr. Doug Witherspoon President and Chief Scientist of HyperV Technologies Corp." src="https://hyperv.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/DougTankCropped-04.22-300x225.jpg" /></div>
<br />
Interestingly, HyperV Technologies has been researching <a href="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2014/04/plasma-jet-driven-magneto-inertial.html" target="_blank">Plasma Jet Magneto-Inertial Fusion (PJMIF)</a>, with the intention that its plasma electric thruster technology will be ideal for propelling spacecraft within the solar system. For example, the company's technologies enable the use of solar panels for electric power out to at least the asteroid belt beyond Mars without requiring a "large unwieldy array" of solar panels. For beyond the asteroid belt, in the darker outer solar system, a compact fission reactor capable of providing electrical power for years is identified the most practical energy source.<br />
<br />
The company <a href="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2014/04/plasma-jet-driven-magneto-inertial.html" target="_blank">states</a>:<br />
<br />
We have identified a unique new approach to using a non-gaseous propellant, which maintains the same high Isp and thrust of argon or xenon gas propellants in our thruster. This new propellant approach provides the E3P thruster technology with the following advantages:<br />
<br />
1) The non-gaseous propellant is completely inert and non-toxic, and requires no high-pressure propellant tanks which can explode, or valves which can fail. Given that the propellant is inert and non-toxic, it is an ideal candidate technology for safe use with, and storage aboard, manned platforms and on cubesats.<br />
<br />
2) This thruster technology could enable interplanetary missions on cubesat spacecraft as small as 6U (briefcase size spacecraft) and with similarly low cost.<br />
<br />
3) It is scalable up to large spacecraft in the kilowatt power range.<br />
<br />
4) It can be throttled for fine maneuvering of the spacecraft.<br />
<br />
5) Both the thruster technology and propellant are mechanically robust.<br />
<br />
6) It has high thrust per unit area, taking up less space on the rear of the spacecraft.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img height="288" src="https://hyperjetfusion.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Fusion-cost-curve-LS-HD-double-chi-labelled-with-caption.png" width="320" /></div>
<br />
On October 17, 2017, HyperV Technologies announced that it has begun the process of merging with <a href="http://www.hyperjetfusion.com/" target="_blank"><b>HyperJet Fusion Corporation</b></a>. Dr. Y. C. Francis Thio was appointed as the President and CEO of HyperJet Fusion Corporation, but left the position in 2019 to join a better-funded fusion power initiative with ENN Energy in China (see #33 below). Dr. Thio is also the inventor of both Plasma Jet Driven Magneto Inertial Fusion (PJMIF) and the contour-gap coaxial plasma gun, a leading candidate for use as the PJMIF reactor plasma driver. The fusion energy approach that HyperJet Fusion is developing has previously been known as Plasma-Jet driven Magneto-Inertial Fusion (PJMIF). Since hypersonic jets play a key role in the fusion scheme, the fusion approach is being renamed hyperjet fusion, hence the name of the company.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img height="277" src="https://hyperjetfusion.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/HyperJetSequence.jpg" width="400" /></div>
<br />
HyperJet Fusion Corporation intends to continue to build on the development efforts of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and HyperV Technologies Corp. To date, hyperjet fusion research and development has been funded by NASA, DOE Office of Fusion Energy Sciences (FES), and the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E). This investment represents nearly $28 million from the U.S. government.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img height="320" src="https://hyperjetfusion.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SamSixScreened.jpg" width="216" /></div>
<br />
Strong Atomics, a private fusion energy investment fund, has also providing seed investment funding to HyperJet Fusion Corporation. Additionally, the founder and President of HyperV Technologies Corp. Dr. F. Douglas Witherspoon, is now the Vice President and COO of HyperJet Fusion. The merger includes the transfer of all personnel, facilities, equipment and intellectual property developed by HyperV Technologies Corp to HyperJet Fusion.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img height="239" src="https://hyperjetfusion.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Powders2.jpg" width="320" /></div>
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Dr. Thio, <a href="https://www.thefusionpodcast.com/blog/2019/7/5/eight-fusion-events-that-you-missed-july-2019" target="_blank">now working in China</a>, stated the following on behalf of HyperJet Fusion in 2017: “Our company has inherited tremendous experience and valuable scientific data from the development of HyperV’s proprietary plasma gun technology. In addition to fusion energy, our plasma guns also have promising applications in the fields of micron and submicron metallic powder production, thermal spray, space propulsion (including fusion propulsion), and high energy density plasma research. The plasma guns can be used to refuel the plasma in experimental tokamak fusion reactors, as well as mitigate the destructive effects of plasma disruption events. They can also be used for driving rotations in tokamak and other plasma devices. As part of the effort to better understand the complex science of plasmas, an array of unique high performance diagnostic and data capture tools have been developed. This exclusive line of diagnostic and data capture tools is now also available for sale through HyperJet Fusion Corporation.”<br />
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32. <a href="http://compactfusionsystems.com/" target="_blank"><b>Compact Fusion Systems</b></a> in Santa Fe, New Mexico, so far has no online presence. The company's design employs liquid metal surrounding a plasma core, with some parallels to General Fusion's strategy. CFS, in turn, is a spinout venture from <a href="http://woodruffscientific.com/company" target="_blank">Woodruff Scientific, Inc</a>., of Santa Fe, New Mexico and Seattle, Washington. The aim of CFS is to "develop a prototype (fusion) power core."<br />
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<img height="198" src="https://compactfusionsystems.com/images/CFSI_Logo.PNG" width="320" /></div>
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<a href="https://www.thefusionpodcast.com/blog" target="_blank">CFS </a>has "a <a href="https://www.thefusionpodcast.com/blog" target="_blank">solid technical team</a> of former researchers from Kirkland Air Force base, NRL and two private firms." The company recently raised funds via <a href="https://strong-atomics.com/" target="_blank">Strong Atomics</a>, a new venture capital firm, focused solely on fusion power initiatives.<br />
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<a href="https://strong-atomics.com/contact" target="_blank">Strong Atomics</a>, in turn, intends to invest in a portfolio of varied fusion projects, selected based on their potential to create net-positive energy and to lead to plausible reactors. In addition to CFS, Strong Atomics has also invested in FuZE (Zap Energy), MIFTI, and HyperJet Fusion, all of which have been discussed above.<br />
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33. <b><a href="http://fugine.ennresearch.com/" target="_blank">ENN Energy</a></b> in China, a <a href="http://ir.ennenergy.com/en/global/home.php" target="_blank">well-capitalized pri</a><a href="http://ir.ennenergy.com/en/global/home.php" target="_blank">vate renewable energy company</a>, has recently initiated multiple fusion power projects, including both a rotamak design and spherical tokamak, based on designs pioneered at Princeton University, but relatively poorly funded in the United States. ENN also hosts <a href="http://www.ennresearch.com/fusionsymposium2018/" target="_blank">fusion energy symposia</a>, and has actively been hiring leading researchers in the field, as summarized below. ENN is also a <a href="http://news.mit.edu/2017/enn-group-becomes-mit-energy-initiative-member-0413" target="_blank">partner with MIT</a> in energy storage technology development.</div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Zhu Zhenqi (left), president of ENN Energy Research Institute, and Robert Armstrong, director of the MIT Energy Initiative, sign the agreement for ENN's membership in MITEI's Center for Energy Storage Research. Credit: Kelley Travers/MITEI</span></div>
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ENN states:<br />
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The world requires clean energy sources to sustain our ever-increasing energy demands. As climate change deepens due to increasing fossil fuel use, fusion has been regarded as “The Ultimate Energy Source”, capable of generating nearly inexhaustible carbon-free energy.<br />
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<a href="http://www.ennresearch.com/templets/xany/enn/images/sdkf_01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Image result for enn energy fusion" border="0" height="126" src="https://www.ennresearch.com/templets/xany/enn/images/sdkf_01.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Since the 1950s, scientists have sought to create and control nuclear fusion to generate electricity. Great endeavors in science, technology and engineering have ensued since then. Monumental progress has been achieved in research and development capability as awareness of challenges still to be overcome has increased. Opportunities present themselves for mankind to face this challenge and deliver practical fusion energy.<br />
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The ENN Fusion Engine Challenge (FUGINE) is a global program that seeks to attract dedicated scholars and innovators who are devoted to advancing fusion research and development. It is part of the ENN Carbon-free Energy Initiative (ENN-CFEI) launched by ENN Energy Research Institute, with an aim to leverage open innovation to solve the world's energy challenges and embrace a carbon-free future.<br />
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Both individuals and organizations are encouraged to participate and submit proposals. These will be reviewed by an international panel of scientists, engineers and academics according to technical merits. Substantive prizes as high as $150,000.00 USD will be awarded to the winners. All the prize winners will have the opportunity to become ENN’s technology partners, to work jointly toward the realization of the winning proposals.<br />
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Join the FUGINE Challenge Now!<br />
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Dr Matthew Moynihan writes critically on the topic, as follows:<br />
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From May 26th to 28th China hosted an alternatives fusion approach conference in the city of Xi'an. The conference focused on non-tokamak and featured talks on magneto-inertial fusion (MIF), heavy ion-beam ICF, plasma liner fusion and magnetic mirrors. America has no magnetic mirror machines anywhere our country; despite calls from US experts like Dr. Ken Fowler, Dr. Ralph Moir and Dr. Simeon to do so. Guests were given a tour of the new fusion effort taking flight the ENN energy holdings.<br />
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ENN is a billion-dollar energy company in central china that has started a private fusion research effort. The company is flush with cash. They have sunk ~$10 million over 2 years into duplicating the Princeton Field Reversed Configuration (rotamak) over in China; they have also hired a staff of 30 to drive the effort.<br />
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ENN also has plans to build a 1 Mega-Amp Spherical Tokamak. To make matters worse, after the conference, a top fusion scientist - Dr. Francis Thio hio – was hired away from his position as CEO of HyperJet fusion. Dr. Thio previously served as a program manager at the DOE. Dr. Thio is an expert in plasma liner fusion – a technology that the US has a healthy lead in - and that China had not previously been pursuing.<br />
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So far, there is little published by <a href="http://ir.ennenergy.com/" target="_blank">ENN Energy</a> in English mainstream media about its specific fusion power initiatives, though the company's <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shaodong_Song2" target="_blank">Center for Compact Fusion Research publishes extensively in scientific journals</a>.<br />
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34. <b><a href="https://www.helicityspace.com/" target="_blank">Helicity Space</a></b> is a San Francisco Bay area startup that has recently joined the <a href="https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/" target="_blank">Fusion Industry Association</a>. The company reports that its mission is to develop critical propulsion and power technologies necessary for enabling humanity's expansion into the solar system.</div>
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Using a proprietary helicity drive based on "rigorous science and modern technologies," the company's scalable technology is intended to be "innovative, compact, and realistic." The helicity drive fusion concept merges several plasma plectonemes (loops of helices twisted together such that they cannot be separated without breaking them) in a constant-energy compression magnetic nozzle. The efficiency of magnetic reconnection is exploited for heating, the stability of plectonemes for confinement, and the symmetry of passive coils for magnetic compression.</div>
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This approach is expected to operate efficiently at modest fusion gains and also to scale to ignited operation when ultimately deployed. </div>
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<img alt="Image result for Helicity Space" height="223" src="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/ea757e_f58dced95e2d4cd0af68a00e88e6f82e~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_2500,h_1330,al_c/ea757e_f58dced95e2d4cd0af68a00e88e6f82e~mv2.png" width="400" /></div>
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<b>Plasma Physics Programs, Research Facilities, Components Manufacturers, Industry Associations, Discontinued Programs, and Planned Fusion Power Projects </b></div>
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1. Many universities and institutes have <b>plasma physics programs</b>, including the University of Alberta, University of Saskatchewan, and University of Montreal in Canada, just for example (already mentioned: MIT, Princeton, UCLA); many more in North America and around the world. Here is a global listing of larger plasma science laboratories, which is far from exhaustive (e.g., none of the Canadian labs is listed): <a href="http://iterrf.ru/en/laboratories/" target="_blank">Plasma Labs</a>.</div>
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2. <a href="http://www.enea.it/com/ingl/default.htm" target="_blank"><b>Italy </b></a>is engaged in advanced research at the Institute of Plasma Physics --- Italy has long been a leader in high energy physics. The Italian Institute is really only one example of the dozens of plasma physics labs around the world.</div>
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3. <a href="http://www.pa.ucla.edu/content/research-areas/theoretical-plasma-physics" target="_blank"><b>UCLA </b></a>--- a leader in <a href="http://www.physics.ucla.edu/plasma-exp/" target="_blank">plasma science</a> and plasma confinement. <a href="http://www.seas.ucla.edu/~ffchen/" target="_blank">Dr Francis Chen</a> is currently compiling a textbook on helical plasmas (personal communication). He is the author of the standard textbook on <a href="http://introduction%20to%20plasma%20physics%20and%20controlled%20fusion/" target="_blank">plasma physics and controlled fusion reactions</a>. </div>
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<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41V7La8w8-L._SX313_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="Image result for francis chen fusion" border="0" height="200" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41V7La8w8-L._SX313_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" width="126" /></a></div>
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Dr. Chen has also recently completed a book, laying out a broad rationale and plan for the development of practical fusion power: <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Indispensable-Truth-Fusion-Power-Planet/dp/1441978194/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=An+Indispensable+Truth%3A+How+Fusion+Power+Can+Save+the+Planet&qid=1571898205&sr=8-1" target="_blank">An Indispensable Truth: How Fusion Power Can Save the Planet</a> (2011).</div>
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I consider Dr. Chen's work to be extremely important. </div>
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4. <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/11/touch-thermonuclear-bomb-fuel-z-machine-could-provide-fusion-energy-future" target="_blank"><b>Z Machine</b>, <b>Sandia National Laboratories</b></a>. Sandia is one of only three fusion research centres currently employing deuterium-tritium fuel, as tritium costs tens of thousands of dollars per gram, because it does not occur naturally. Rather, tritium is produced in nuclear reactors as a byproduct of fission reactions. As the Sandia Lab is research-focused rather than development-focused, and also because it investigates both fission and fusion, the decision to employ tritium at this site is perhaps understandable. In the presence of water, including humidity in the air, tritium can form tritiated water, which is at least ten thousand times more biologically hazardous than pure T2 gas. That is a special concern at the Z machine, which insulates electrical components in pools of oil and water. At the Lawrence Livermore NIF, tritium presents fewer hazards because it is contained within a tiny sphere during transport, and workers don't often enter the interior of the machine.</div>
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Sandia's capsule, in contrast, is open at both ends, and the violent implosion mixes unburned tritium with vaporized metal that "sprays everywhere," requiring the centre of the device to be completely removed and replaced after every injection. Sandia is nevertheless moving forward with tritium, in part because it generates extra neutrons that reveal what is occurring in the hottest, densest part of the short-lived plasma, where the physics is not as well understood. In three planned trials next year, the tritium containment system will be removed from around the target both to test an air-purging safety system and to get a clearer view of the neutrons.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhyphenhyphengD1aXmEH5Bugs_iDrmdzU8jEXSvyOejCLz7GRo5weLw8jKaNaJWmTfeMV9GdgTa62_c8d85SjT-0m5dAtclpD3siynNC2_eu0177f7ikgvYQ20tlioL8FoFT4m7s408pR632w/s1600/z_machine_main.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhyphenhyphengD1aXmEH5Bugs_iDrmdzU8jEXSvyOejCLz7GRo5weLw8jKaNaJWmTfeMV9GdgTa62_c8d85SjT-0m5dAtclpD3siynNC2_eu0177f7ikgvYQ20tlioL8FoFT4m7s408pR632w/s320/z_machine_main.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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5. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laboratory_for_Laser_Energetics" target="_blank"><b>Laboratory for Laser Energetics</b> (<b>LLE</b>)</a>. The LLE is a scientific research facility employing the OMEGA laser, which is part of the University of Rochester's south campus, located in Brighton, New York. SImilarly to Sandia, the LLE is a research rather than a development facility. The lab was established in 1970 and its operations since then have been funded jointly; mainly by the United States Department of Energy, the University of Rochester and the New York State government. The Laser Lab was commissioned to serve as a centre for investigations of high-energy physics, specifically those involving the interaction of extremely intense laser radiation with matter. Many types of scientific experiments are performed at the facility with a strong emphasis on inertial confinement, direct drive, laser-induced fusion using OMEGA, currently the world's highest-energy ultraviolet laser.</div>
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The OMEGA laser at the LLE is also one of the most powerful and highest energy lasers in any class in the world. It is a 60-beam ultraviolet frequency-tripled neodymium glass laser, which is capable of delivering 30 kilojoules at up to 60 terawatts onto a target less than 1 millimeter in diameter. Construction and commissioning of the laser were completed in 1995. OMEGA held the record for highest energy laser (per pulse) from 1999 to 2005, when the first 8 beams at the National Ignition Facility exceeded OMEGA's output by about 30 kJ in the ultraviolet. The maximum fusion yield of OMEGA so far is about 10^14 neutrons per shot (first achieved in 1995), and it once held the record for highest neutron yield of any inertial confinement fusion device. The laboratory is unique in conducting "big science" on a university campus.</div>
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6. <a href="https://fusion4freedom.com/costa-rica-makes-nuclear-fusion-history-plasma-discharge/" target="_blank"><b>Costa Rica Stellarator-1 </b>(<b>SCR-1</b>)</a>. The SCR-1 was recently constructed and tested the campus of the Technology Institute of Costa Rica in Cartago province. Costa Rica is now the sixth country to have developed a stellarator, along with the U.S., Japan, Spain, Australia and Germany. Testing of the stellarator represents the first discharge of high temperature plasma in Latin America.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOsyhBvLm9Pxnj2PTNo07F8IKJlc7qBRdN9hdDEe1Plyguk64jNbdxr6h2lskuNG9xNsyUpQQvpwpSk8WY-FmoqBDdrCC8y_pUREa0Rzb9-aTWlU1mhebgTR5wBGUs-OclEKrwtw/s1600/crstell.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="647" data-original-width="995" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOsyhBvLm9Pxnj2PTNo07F8IKJlc7qBRdN9hdDEe1Plyguk64jNbdxr6h2lskuNG9xNsyUpQQvpwpSk8WY-FmoqBDdrCC8y_pUREa0Rzb9-aTWlU1mhebgTR5wBGUs-OclEKrwtw/s320/crstell.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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7. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-1NF" target="_blank"><b>H-1NF</b></a> is the Australian Plasma Fusion Research Facility. The H-1 flexible Heliac is a three field-period helical axis stellarator located in the ANU Research School of Physics and Engineering at Canberra, Australia. Optimization of the H-1 power supplies for low current ripple allows precise control of the ratio of secondary (helical, vertical) coil to primary (poloidal, toroidal) coil currents, resulting in a finely tunable magnetic geometry. Slight variation in the current ratio between shots (plasma discharges) in a sequence corresponds to a high resolution parameter scan through magnetic configurations (e.g., rotational transform profile; magnetic well). The programmable control system allows for repetition rates of around 30 shots per hour, limited by data acquisition time and magnet cooling time.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMlqM3eYVKXp0SocWCn-fRnXXCVN-vHvliug48sdzePgP27UnbCkd8MozD-h2YxgiQNhpAkPcf5ncq74WB_3URAF2eJUOcpckTEnzIVlvqkHAoHJ73NRYSUjyHFWiQE5EjmYUBDg/s1600/800px-H1_Heliac.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1005" data-original-width="800" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMlqM3eYVKXp0SocWCn-fRnXXCVN-vHvliug48sdzePgP27UnbCkd8MozD-h2YxgiQNhpAkPcf5ncq74WB_3URAF2eJUOcpckTEnzIVlvqkHAoHJ73NRYSUjyHFWiQE5EjmYUBDg/s320/800px-H1_Heliac.jpg" width="254" /></a></div>
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8. <a href="http://www.emc2fusion.org/" target="_blank"><b>Energy/Matter Conversion Corporation, Inc</b></a>. (aka EMC2) --- founded in 1985 by Robert Bussard (died 2007) --- developing a Polywell reactor, using inertial electrostatic confinement (positively charged particles are aimed at negatively charged particles at high speeds). Appears to be inactive currently.</div>
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9. <a href="http://eng.nrcki.ru/" target="_blank"><b>Russia </b></a>--- The famed physicist and peace activist, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrei_Sakharov#Support_for_peaceful_use_of_nuclear_technology" target="_blank">Andrei Sakharov</a> (May 21, 1921-December 14, 1989), invented the tokamak design, but sadly, Russia is currently lagging the field. The T-15 reactor at the <a href="http://eng.nrcki.ru/" target="_blank">Kurchatov Institute</a>, the first industrial prototype fusion reactor to use superconducting magnets, was closed in 1995 for lack of funds. Russia proposes to develop a post-ITER hybrid fission-fusion reactor to be named DEMO-FNS (for Fusion Neutron Source). A small tokamak (R=1.9 m) would generate the neutrons necessary to produce fission fuel and to transmute radioactive waste.</div>
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10. <a href="http://www.ga.com/fusion-technologies" target="_blank"><b>General Atomics</b></a> in the US has no plans to develop a commercial fusion reactor, but it does carry out considerable plasma and magnetic confinement research, maintains the DIII-D Plasma Control System, and supplies components to many of the projects mentioned here (including ITER, KSTAR, EAST, MAST and many others). The mission of the DIII-D Control group at General Atomics is to develop the control knowledge and solutions needed to enable tokamaks to operate disruption-free with required levels of robust high performance. Development of integrated plasma control (IPC), a systematic approach to model-based design and controller verification, has enabled successful experimental application of high-reliability control algorithms requiring a minimum of machine operations time for testing and tuning. GA reports that is is active in developing and supplying the following:</div>
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MAGNET TECHNOLOGIES</div>
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GA is fabricating the Central Solenoid for the international ITER project, an unprecedented scientific partnership that aims to demonstrate the feasibility of fusion power as a clean-energy resource on a global scale.</div>
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COIL WINDING</div>
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Coil Joining</div>
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Superconducting Coil Heat Treatment</div>
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Coil Insulation</div>
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Cryogenic Systems & Cold Testing</div>
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Tokamak Operations and Engineering</div>
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GA provides a wide array of fusion technology products from gas injection systems to diagnostics and imaging.</div>
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HIGH-POWER NEUTRAL BEAM INJECTOR SYSTEMS</div>
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Electromagnetic Simulations</div>
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Cryogenic Systems</div>
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Vacuum Systems</div>
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Mechanical Systems</div>
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Control Systems</div>
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Microwave Technologies</div>
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GA supplies a full array of corrugated waveguides and high- and low-power microwave transmission systems and components.</div>
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HIGH POWER & HIGH VOLTAGE SYSTEMS</div>
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Low-Power Microwave Systems</div>
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Power Systems</div>
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Corrugated Waveguide Systems</div>
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PLASMA CONTROL SYSTEMS</div>
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GA supplies design resources, technologies, and integrated systems for control of magnetic fusion plasmas to government and private laboratories worldwide. GA has adapted and deployed its DIII-D Plasma Control System at more than a dozen toroidal magnetic confinement facilities including NSTX, Pegasus, and MST in the United States, and EAST, KSTAR, KTX, and MAST in Asia and Europe.</div>
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11. China, Europe and Japan have also proposed <a href="https://www.iter.org/mag/3/22" target="_blank"><b>post-ITER projects</b></a>, all of which will be named "DEMO." DEMO is meant to be the machine that will bring fusion energy research to the threshold of a prototype fusion reactor, thus opening the way to its industrial and commercial exploitation. The term DEMO describes more a developmental phase than a single machine. For the moment, different conceptual DEMO projects are under consideration by all ITER Members (China, the European Union, India, Japan, Korea, Russia and, to a lesser extent, the United States). It has not yet been determined whether DEMO would be an international collaboration, similarly to ITER, or a series of national projects. China, after having explored physics and technological issues in a test reactor built in the 2020s (the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor, CFETR), also plans to launch the construction of a DEMO reactor in the 2030s. The European Union proposes a 500 MW DEMO reactor. The Japanese have shared plans for a 1500 MW DEMO reactor. My own guess is that ITER is unlikely to serve as the foundation for future fusion reactors. Rather, the future is much more likely to see compact designs, and it's probable that a variety of reactor models will be commercialized, as well, building on ideas that are already more advanced than anything under consideration at ITER (which is fundamentally an expansion of the 40-year-old JET design!).</div>
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12. I can't close without mentioning the <a href="https://fusionenergyconsortium.com/" target="_blank"><b>Fusion Energy Consortium</b></a>, who hope to pool private funds for the incubation of fusion power development. The consortium states: By the end of this century the world will have depleted economically viable fossil fuel reserves. At the same time the worldwide demand for energy will double. Renewables such as solar, wind, geothermal, etc., are wholly inadequate to supply the world’s electrical power needs let alone the needs of the transportation and agriculture sectors. If mankind cannot develop a new source of energy of the magnitude of fossil fuels, worldwide population will drop by a factor of 10 to pre-industrial age levels. Today’s atomic fission based nuclear power is the only energy source that can meet the 22nd Century’s energy demands. However it has too many dangerous problems to be implemented on such a vast scale. The only known solution is the development and commercialization of a different type of atomic energy known as fusion energy. Although scientists have been studying fusion for over 60 years they have not been able to harness it in a controlled environment. For a variety of political and sociological reasons no country has dedicated itself to developing fusion energy for the practical purpose of generating energy. The job can best be done in the private sector. However, the risks are too high based on our current level of scientific knowledge, and the costs are prohibitive. The solution is the Fusion Energy Consortium which will organize the tremendous amount of required capital and incentivize the private sector to take on this task in an efficient and collaborative manner. The public and political leadership will become educated on the tremendous need to develop practical fusion energy. The Fusion Energy Consortium is a member sponsored U.S. IRS Title 26 501(c)(3) compliant LLC established as a foundation to stimulate the science, research, and development leading to practical controlled nuclear fusion energy.</div>
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13. <b><a href="https://stellarator.energy/" target="_blank">Renaissance Fusion</a></b> has also recently joined the Fusion Industry Association. The company intends to design and manufacture components for stelarators and high-temperature superconductors.</div>
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Renaissance Fusion states:<br />
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Superconductors are special materials that, under special conditions (e.g., low enough temperature), conduct electricity without any resistance. High-Temperature Superconductors (HTS) exhibit this property at comparatively higher temperatures (but still much lower than room temperature). Compared to conventional superconductors, they are able to carry higher currents and thus generate stronger magnetic fields, opening up new opportunities in medical imaging, levitated trains, magnetic confinement fusion and several other technologies.</div>
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Stellarators (like Wendelstein 7-X in Germany, pictured) are devices for the magnetic confinement of fusion plasmas, vaguely shaped like a doughnut. Tokamaks (like the ITER experiment under construction in France) are also doughnut-shaped. Tokamaks are relatively simple to build, but difficult to operate (pulsed and subject to “disruptions”, “ELMs” and other instabilities). By contrast, stellarators are simple to operate (steady-state and quiescent) but difficult to build, due to their complex shape.</div>
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Tokamaks are the most mature plasma-confinement technology, and stellarators rank second, but are rapidly catching up. If their construction could be simplified, stellarators would be strong candidates for a demonstrative (DEMO) fusion power-plant.</div>
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RENAISSANCE FUSION AIMS AT</div>
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1. Demonstrating a new HTS manufacturing technique with potential benefits for medical imaging and stellarator simplification.</div>
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2. Building the first high-field (10 T) HTS stellarator with thick, flowing liquid metal walls.</div>
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3. Putting fusion electricity in the grid within 13 years.<br />
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14. <b><a href="https://www.suptech.com/overview/" target="_blank">Superconductor Technologies, Inc.</a></b>, in Austin Texas has been developing high temperature superconducting wire for 32 years, and only now is the product coming to market. I've followed this company for several years. They have always talked in terms of using superconductors in power generation, but in a general way. Now, very recently, they are seeing fusion power as the primary focus of their technology, and the focus of the company's communications has clearly been aligned with this purpose in mind. It seems to me that many threads are coming together at once, as it has become increasingly evident that fusion is a near-term power technology --- it's not conceived of as a long-term project anymore!<br />
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STI states: </div>
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Since its formation in 1987, STI has pioneered the development of superconducting materials and manufacturing processes, developing numerous patents as well as proprietary trade secrets and know-how. Over the last decade, STI has manufactured and sold over 6,000 superconducting systems that have been deployed in tier one wireless networks, thereby providing commercial deployments of its superconducting technology. Now, STI is applying its proven and proprietary superconducting deposition techniques and manufacturing experience to the development of cost effective, high performance superconducting wire for emerging large market opportunities with superconductor magnet applications such as Tokamak Fusion devices and Next Generation Electric Machines.</div>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";">Conductus</span><span class="sup" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #404040; font-family: "roboto"; vertical-align: super;">®</span><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";"> </span><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";">is a superconducting wire used in the building of superconductor electrical devices in multiple applications in production today. Conductus</span><span class="sup" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #404040; font-family: "roboto"; vertical-align: super;">®</span><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";"> </span><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";">is a high current carrying conductor that provides dramatic performance improvements, higher power density, smaller size and significant cost benefits over conventional copper and aluminum wire. Conductus</span><span class="registered_trademark_notation_black" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";"><span class="sup" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: super;">®</span></span><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";"> wire is manufactured through a proprietary and highly refined deposition process called RCE-CDR. Conductus</span><span class="sup" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #404040; font-family: "roboto"; vertical-align: super;">®</span><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";"> </span><span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";">superconducting wire is uniquely positioned to address three key areas of opportunity in the market: high performance, improved economics, and commercial-scale capacity.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";">Superconducting wire has traditionally been utilized in devices that are less cost sensitive and highly focused on proof of concept or high performance. This is anticipated to change as the improved economics of Conductus® wire enables the commercialization of new devices that are high performance as well as economical over conventional copper based solutions. The key factors in Conductus® wire’s cost benefits are:</span></div>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";">Unlike Low Temperature Superconducting (LTS) wire that is commercially available with production in the hundreds of thousands of kilometers on an annual basis, High Temperature Superconducting (HTS) wire production remains limited and is not in supply in commercial volumes. STI is in the process of scaling capacity to commercialize our Conductus® wire. Our initial production machines have been installed in Austin, TX, with the final RCE-CDR production system, capable of 1km lengths.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";">Conductus® superconducting wire manufacturing approach utilizes simplified, layered wire architecture, designed to scale with high yield and commercial volumes. Conductus wire architecture consists of three key manufacturing processes. First, a commercial-grade stainless steel or hastelloy template is passed through an E-Polish process. Second, the template proceeds through an Ion Beam Assisted Deposition (IBAD) process in order to produce a template with the right surface conditions. Third, the High-Temperature Superconducting (HTS) materials are deposited onto the template using Conductus proprietary Reactive Co-evaporation Cyclic Deposition and Reaction (RCE-CDR) HTS deposition. As a final step, outside of the key manufacturing processes, a customer can request metal cap layers that cover the entire surface of the wire.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";">Conventional electrical equipment is limited by the performance of traditional copper and aluminum conductors. Existing electrical motors, generators, transformers, transmission cables and current limiters typically are built with copper-based conductors, utilizing 100’s to 1000’s of strands of wire. As the power requirement increases so does the quantity of the conductor, which in turn increased the system size and weight until ultimately it becomes impractical to build. Copper-based conductors are also inefficient. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that U.S.-wide transmission and distribution losses increased from about 5% in 1970 to 9.5% in 2001 due to higher utilization, heavier congestion, inefficiency and overall equipment failure that resulted in power outages and power quality disturbances. This costs the U.S. economy in excess of $25 billion annually.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";">Copper wire has less than 1% of the power density of our typical Conductus® wire. This 100 times or more increase in power density reduces the physical number of wire strands required per device; resulting in a significant reduction in size and weight. Conductus® wire also addresses the problem of efficiency by all but eliminating electrical resistance. Devices made with Conductus® wire are extremely efficient providing reduced cost of ownership.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";">Advanced transmission and distribution technologies are necessary to enhance Smart Grid efficiency, real-time management, throughput and reliability. Existing copper-based systems are prime targets for change through disruptive technology. New superconducting electrical devices, built utilizing Conductus® high efficiency wire, are well positioned to address this challenge.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";">The electric power industry is facing many challenges that threaten a utilities’ ability to deliver reliable and cost efficient power. These challenges include integration of renewable electricity, need for improved network efficiency, aging infrastructure, increased electrical demand and implementation of new Smart Grid technologies. Existing copper-based electrical conductors are inherently inefficient and cannot support the growing energy demand or Smart Grid infrastructure, making them prime targets for change through disruptive technology. At the heart of these NEW, adaptive, rapid-response networks is the need for advanced electrical conductors to transform the conventional, linear power architecture into a distributed, mesh infrastructure.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";">New, emerging, cost effective, high performance superconducting technologies provide unique benefits targeting Smart Grid infrastructure and offer an excellent alternative to conventional, copper-based solutions. Advanced, high power superconducting transmission cables and superconducting fault current limiters (SFCL) are game changing solutions with significant advantages. High power superconducting transmission cables improve total power by reducing voltage and increasing current; this reduces right-of-way, civil work and environment impact. SFCLs protect the grid from damaging faults, and enable power sharing between substations and connectivity to new sources of renewable power. These novel superconducting solutions are all made possible with superconducting wire. Superconducting solutions like SFCLs or superconducting cables are composed of 100s of superconducting wire strands ranging from 3 meters to 1000 meters in length. STI is collaborating with industry-leading, global electric utilities and device manufacturers to commercialize our best-in-class Conductus® superconducting wire for deployment.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";">In short, central power generation stations (i.e. nuclear, natural gas power plants) push high power current (500 to 3,000 Megawatts) through transmission lines (i.e. high power cables) to substations. Substations step down power to medium voltage via transformers and redistribute power to end users (i.e. residential, commercial, government and industrial customers). </span></div>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";">This conventional grid layout is a highly centralized network. Centralized power system are vulnerable to costly down-time; one downed power line could potentially result in widespread blackouts costing businesses and taxpayers billions of dollars. </span></div>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";">As demographic growth and consumer adoption of electronic devices drives increased per capita electricity demand, the aging grid infrastructure will likely exhibit lower stability and reliability if government and utilities do not implement much needed infrastructure upgrades. </span></div>
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<span style="color: #404040; font-family: "roboto";">Another major issue facing the worldwide electric grid is the addition of renewable energy generation sources. Existing power generation sources like nuclear or coal plants provide a consistent and reliable flow of energy to the grid. The grid then tries to distribute a level quality of power to all areas. However, new alternative power sources like wind and solar energy, even if efficient and sustainable, provide intermittent and varying amounts of electricity to the grid. Power levels fluctuate based on time of day for solar power and change in wind speeds for wind power. This variable output of power creates massive energy storage issues that the grid cannot tolerate. Growth in the renewable energy sector, like solar, wind and electric vehicles, require Smart Grid improvement for success. Technology advancements in energy distribution and transmission will drive down cost and improve efficiency. Lastly, future power demand could greatly exceed power generation. Much infrastructure investment is required to ensure future power stability.</span></div>
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<b>8 FEB 2019</b>. No discussion of the potential and promise of fusion power would be complete without a consideration of the social and technological obstacles. This recent article from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists highlights some of the more serious technological issues, which require more discussion by fusion's proponents than I'm currently seeing!</div>
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<b><a href="https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/" target="_blank">Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be</a></b></div>
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<b>15 MARCH 2019:</b> Importantly, there is now a <a href="https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/" target="_blank"><b>Fusion Industry Association</b></a>, which was formed recently (in 2018) to advocate for fusion power technology development. I have blogged on this topic separately, <b><a href="http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/2019/01/the-new-fusion-industry-association.html" target="_blank">here</a></b>.</div>
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<i><a href="https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/blog/fusion-industry-association-announces-launch" target="_blank">The Association states</a>:</i> The Fusion Industry Association is a registered non-profit organization composed of private companies working to commercialize fusion power. The Association advocates for policies that would accelerate the race to commercial fusion energy. The fusion industry and its individual companies are eager to partner with governments to advance the shared goal of fusion innovation.</div>
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<a href="https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/" target="_blank"><img alt="Image result for fusion industry association" height="226" src="https://www.hornetechnologies.com/images/fia.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Altogether, over $1 billion in private capital has been invested in private companies with transformative approaches to fusion. They share the goal of developing economically viable commercial fusion power as soon as possible. Private companies are aiming to streamline the pathway to a fusion power plant, while working in cooperation with longstanding government-supported fusion sciences programs.</div>
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<b>2 APRIL 2019:</b> A Russian blogger with technical knowledge, using the online name "Valentine," has published an <a href="http://csef.ru/en/nauka-i-obshchestvo/direction-topics/obzor-termoyadernyh-startapov-mira-6408" target="_blank"><b>Overview of fusion startups in the world</b></a> (click <a href="http://csef.ru/en/nauka-i-obshchestvo/direction-topics/obzor-termoyadernyh-startapov-mira-6408" target="_blank">here</a>). This review overlaps considerably with my own, though the author has identified some additional, early-stage (conceptual) projects, and has not addressed the wide range of government-sponsored programs apart from ITER, particularly in Asia. Valentine's purpose is to evaluate the technical stage of advancement of the various projects, which may be helpful to some readers. He has somewhat strong opinions, and is not always using the most up-to-date information. For example, he does not mention Commonwealth Fusion Systems when referring to the MIT SPARC project, and refers to TAE Technologies by its former name (Tri Alpha Energy). However, this overview is the best independent summary I've so far found of fusion projects in development, and the engineering perspective is helpful in many ways.</div>
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<img alt="image" height="218" src="https://habrastorage.org/getpro/geektimes/post_images/1ad/963/a36/1ad963a36118bcca41a61d825657271d.png" width="400" /><br />
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<b>2 April 2019.</b> I had posted a link here to the <b>Fusion Energy League</b>, which no longer appears to have a website, though a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/FusionEnergyLeague/" target="_blank">Facebook page</a> has been established: click <a href="https://www.facebook.com/FusionEnergyLeague/" target="_blank">here</a>. The organization is one of the proponents of boronic fusion, which is essentially radiation-free, producing electricity, rather than neutron radiation as its primary output.</div>
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The League states:</div>
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The worldwide mining of Boron ores results in the production of ~1 million tons of Boron per year. The use of this Boron natural resource for power generation would result in production of 1.725 × 10^16 kW-h of energy.</div>
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<img alt="No photo description available." height="240" src="https://scontent.fyyc3-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/71184537_2970113773003588_9191646685397254144_n.jpg?_nc_cat=106&_nc_oc=AQmas1h--mS7qqxhBaw-aJ8_tAPH2rg1X0DGsiWGP5P2d0WZpoIEwwVILwEGq8Ihjfg&_nc_ht=scontent.fyyc3-1.fna&oh=9ac76ae65b733f834c7e73d769da2d52&oe=5E1D7D2F" width="400" /></div>
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* <b>14 October 2019</b>. I provided the following point form summary (in an earlier draft form) to <a href="https://www.arielcohen.com/" target="_blank">Ariel Cohen</a>, who is a professional energy analyst:</div>
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In my judgement, <b>the most advanced projects in the private sector</b>, based on publicly available information, are:</div>
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1. Commonwealth Fusion Systems, MIT. Eni Energy seed grant of $150 million and Vinod Khosla is an investor. 40-foot diameter machine. This will get built.</div>
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2. Tokamak Energy, UK. Compact spherical tokamak, private money, good scientific support. Developing generations of prototypes, as most do.</div>
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3. Lockheed Martin Skunk Works. Few technical details, but well-funded, making dramatic announcements. Very compact design if they can pull it off. The small size has been questioned by independent analysts. Several recent announcements. Currently at stage 5 out of 8 stages. They plan commercialization by 2028. Very bold public statements.</div>
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4. TAE Technologies. Aiming for super high temperature boronic fusion, which produces electricity vs. (hazardous) neutron radiation. Paul Allen poured a lot of money into this one, Several hundred million in funds.</div>
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5. Zap Energy and CTFusion. Both spun out from University of Washington (Seattle). Z-pinch method avoids some of the problems of tokamaks. Intriguing. I assume the funding is modest.</div>
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6. General Fusion. Richmond, BC. Jeff Bezos is an investor. I have a friend who works there. The acoustic fusion design is a total outlier, but is the only design using molten lead in the "blanket," thus safer from a neutron radiation standpoint (neutron radiation can activate carbon atoms as C14, which have a long half life; C14 is also a problem with fission reactors). General Fusion makes announcements when they get $1 million, but they're still in business.</div>
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7. Helion Energy. Unique colliding beam design. Extremely compact and relatively inexpensive. $10 million grant in 2015. I hear their prototype is about ready to run.</div>
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8. LPP Fusion. Hard to make out how much money they have. Very ambitious boronic fusion target. I'm pretty sure that TAE is much further along, but these are all inferences on my part.</div>
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9. MIFTI, out of U Cal Irvine. I assume they don't have a lot of money, but they call their design "staged Z-pinch." They may or may not have a proprietary edge. Their sister company, MIFTEC, which seems to be adequately funded, has just set a record for neutron flux produced from a fusion reaction at the University of Nevada at Reno. The plan is to commercialize this (fusion-based) technology for the production of currently scarce medical isotopes.</div>
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10. HB11 Energy (Australia). Another boronic fusion design. Amazing if it works. Proprietary and very unique technology. Interesting. Boronic fusion is the holy grail of most all fusion projects. It requires ten times the temperatures of tritium-deuterium fusion, which is the "easiest" reaction, because the nuclei are packed with extra neutrons before fusing them, thus raising the radiation hazard (neutrons are dangerous and can make containment vessels radioactive, as well as damage and degrade them).</div>
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11. First Light Fusion. Oxford U spinoff. They report solid funding. Laser/inertial confinement. Pursuing pulsed power driver technology, "which we believe will reduce costs by an order of magnitude." Most promising inertial confinement initiative??? Maybe?</div>
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12. Horne Technologies, Denver. Some parallels to the Lockheed Martin design, "but simpler." I don't know much about this one.</div>
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Several others may be equally or more promising. I can't evaluate beyond the initial summary (above). The 12 above are all private initiatives.</div>
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Publicly, the US Navy announced a compact fusion reactor project on Oct 10, 2019. Their design is interesting and unique, and is meant for mobile applications. Who knows how advanced this one is?</div>
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<b>21 October 2019</b>. Dr Matthew Moynihan <a href="https://www.thefusionpodcast.com/blog/2019/1/12/selling-fusion-in-washington-dc" target="_blank">published a <b>critique</b></a><b> </b>of the <b>US federal fusion energy development program</b>, which he argues is treating fusion power as a "science project," rather than as an "energy program." I have commented often that no country anywhere has engaged inn what could be called a serious effort to develop fusion power technology. Dr. Moynihan thinks that China could now be an exception to that rule, which could give China a commanding lead in the most important energy technology of the future. His very important blog post can be found <a href="https://www.thefusionpodcast.com/blog/2019/1/12/selling-fusion-in-washington-dc" target="_blank"><b>here</b></a>.</div>
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Dr. Moynihan argues as follows:</div>
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If Congress suddenly woke up to fusion power – they might also realize that China is pulling ahead. The Chinese program has mushroomed recently. Developments started in 2011 during their last five year plan. This was the same time that Congress cut funding for last remaining tokamak at MIT. That same year, China started staffing up an INEST office outside Hefei. They now have 500 fresh PhD’s working on fusion and fission innovations. They recently tested the 3D printing of fusion components. Meanwhile, the US program is turning away young people because they do not have the support. I personally have met many people over the years that could not find a position. Publicly, the INEST office is still supporting ITER – but privately they are very much eyeing the advances in mirrors and FRC.</div>
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<img alt="Cylindrical chamber" height="240" src="https://www.pvamu.edu/pvso/wp-content/uploads/sites/66/IMG_0664_400x300.jpg" width="320" /></div>
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Meanwhile a billion dollar Chinese energy company, ENN, has started a project to build a FRC based on the Princeton Rotamak machine. The ground is fertile with ideas that have not been supported by the US government. Some are not American. For example, the gas dynamic trap in Russia recently broke through many of the problems that plagued mirror machines. Despite calls from US experts – the US has no mirror machine operating anywhere in the country. China has also moved into superconducting tokamaks. Today, China's EAST is a topnotch superconducting tokamak. The US has no such machine.</div>
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There is raw frustration over this in the fusion community. That anger cuts across all approaches. Everyone in this field agrees: <b>policy-makers simply do not get how important this work is</b>.</div>
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Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-76600419304127192152019-11-22T02:31:00.000-06:002019-11-22T03:00:06.213-06:00Russia's "Can't Lose" Financial Strategy<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">17 February 2014 - updated 22 August & 22 December 2014; 30 January 2015; 21 April 2015; 2 January; 20 September 2016; 22 March & 29 July 2018; & 22 November 2019</span><br />
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<span 18px="" arial="" grande="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;" tahoma="" verdana=""><i>This is a legacy article, dating back to February 2014. I have been adding updates as they come available. Russian gold reserves have more than doubled since I first published this article, and now stand at <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-cenbank-gold/russia-becomes-worlds-fifth-biggest-gold-holder-after-sanctions-idUSKCN1PC11G" target="_blank">fifth in the world</a>. </i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span 18px="" arial="" grande="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana=""><br /></span>
<span 18px="" arial="" grande="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana="">Here's a strategy I've thought about for a while now. This is only possible because we have abandoned the gold standard (and with it, sound money - you can talk to Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jay Powell about that --- in fact, to any central bank president almost anywhere in the world --- they are all doing the same thing!). </span></span><br />
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</span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzl4KoLr-yRZs2MIPlYej312NyuA8nTxhh3dfleeKTnz8q_cIEiw9QO9raUPrBbueZoHtjM3SIxfs2sTdblXIb2GKb59A4_sYtfaqBEPbEwvuMU9eODsBbM5hzPYxRS6AltG90Fw/s1600/money+bin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="112" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzl4KoLr-yRZs2MIPlYej312NyuA8nTxhh3dfleeKTnz8q_cIEiw9QO9raUPrBbueZoHtjM3SIxfs2sTdblXIb2GKb59A4_sYtfaqBEPbEwvuMU9eODsBbM5hzPYxRS6AltG90Fw/s1600/money+bin.jpg" width="200" /></span></a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span 18px="" arial="" grande="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana="">Let's just say a government decided to</span><span 18px="" arial="" class="text_exposed_show" font-family:="" grande="" inline="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana=""> print money out of thin air and use it to buy gold. You start with something that is an entirely artificial construct (any national currency in today's world meets this criterion) and use it to buy something that is real, scarce and irreplaceable (gold still meets THOSE criteria!). Voila! You have a "can't-lose" strategy for getting leaps and bounds ahead of everyone else. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span 18px="" arial="" class="text_exposed_show" font-family:="" grande="" inline="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana=""><br /></span>
<span 18px="" arial="" class="text_exposed_show" font-family:="" grande="" inline="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana="">And... at least one country is actually doing this. Check out these two Russian charts.... </span></span><br />
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<span 18px="" arial="" class="text_exposed_show" font-family:="" grande="" inline="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana="">(1) </span><span 18px="" arial="" grande="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana="">They are buying-up gold hand over fist;</span><span 18px="" arial="" grande="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana=""> </span><span 18px="" arial="" grande="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana="">and </span></span><br />
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<span 18px="" arial="" grande="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana="">(2) </span><span 18px="" arial="" grande="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana="">They are printing money like crazy out of thin air to pay for it (it's virtually without cost for any nation to increase their "money supply" in the same way, but very few are taking advantage of the continuing --- and surprising --- legality of doing this!). </span></span><br />
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<span 18px="" arial="" grande="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana="">Vladimir Putin is a smart guy, period. Perhaps a few of the rest of us should clue in... and catch up.</span><span 18px="" arial="" grande="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana=""> If only individuals were allowed to print their own currencies, as nation-states do! </span></span><br />
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<span 18px="" arial="" class="text_exposed_show" font-family:="" grande="" inline="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana="">Russia's gold reserves were up 150% in 7 years when I first posted this article:</span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDJ_Nhu6DC0qve4NcaLEht3ZDokQcPlQXcIIOVXksrWO3GZazqk2EpaM7IzxxgFMQGmewuq_h-KRtcrizIvec7RZCWMlj5ebw5_XDAq32DFiEBAgVnts3GYXipuOmmEPGUSTJnCw/s1600/Russian+gold+purchases.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDJ_Nhu6DC0qve4NcaLEht3ZDokQcPlQXcIIOVXksrWO3GZazqk2EpaM7IzxxgFMQGmewuq_h-KRtcrizIvec7RZCWMlj5ebw5_XDAq32DFiEBAgVnts3GYXipuOmmEPGUSTJnCw/s400/Russian+gold+purchases.png" width="400" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span 18px="" arial="" class="text_exposed_show" font-family:="" grande="" inline="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana=""><br /></span><span 18px="" arial="" grande="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana="">At the same time, Russia's money supply had increased fully by 33% in only 2 years: more than that of the US, Europe, Japan or China at the time. </span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuJn3fy6iLf9uNuJ9dpb0Pg3rdgH7FD1wE3WQobQld8Eu2CBejnRTRiuJIY2TBv5K43ljxNG8HPWHo4Xm51qSxO6tZT4TXGydB5tEZy5Pls62_6VnZRocJDJcGYNBOVmyFY2vpnw/s1600/Russian+money+supply.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuJn3fy6iLf9uNuJ9dpb0Pg3rdgH7FD1wE3WQobQld8Eu2CBejnRTRiuJIY2TBv5K43ljxNG8HPWHo4Xm51qSxO6tZT4TXGydB5tEZy5Pls62_6VnZRocJDJcGYNBOVmyFY2vpnw/s400/Russian+money+supply.png" width="400" /></span></a></div>
<span 18px="" arial="" class="text_exposed_show" font-family:="" grande="" inline="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;" tahoma="" verdana=""><br />Today, in November 2019, Russia's gold holdings are <b>650%</b> <b>higher </b>than they had been in 2006 (before the bursting of the most recent global financial bubble). </span><br />
<span 18px="" arial="" class="text_exposed_show" font-family:="" grande="" inline="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;" tahoma="" verdana=""><br /></span>
<span 18px="" arial="" class="text_exposed_show" font-family:="" grande="" inline="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;" tahoma="" verdana="">I had argued at the time that rather than bailing out Wall Street and the US government, the Federal Reserve should have just put $10,000 in the mailbox of every US citizen (yes, they actually spent <i>more</i> than that much "new" money to rescue the still-staggering US economy and business elites). This would have done MUCH more for the Main Street economy than bailing out BOTH political parties, GM, Countrywide Financial, Bank of America, AIG Insurance and many other monied interests....</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span 18px="" arial="" class="text_exposed_show" font-family:="" grande="" inline="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana=""><br /></span>
<span 18px="" arial="" class="text_exposed_show" font-family:="" grande="" inline="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana="">But a better scheme even that that would have been to take the $4 trillion new dollars they had printed to bail out the government and the banks after 2008, and to have quietly, discreetly, and persistently bought gold with it. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span 18px="" arial="" class="text_exposed_show" font-family:="" grande="" inline="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana=""><br /></span><span 18px="" arial="" class="text_exposed_show" font-family:="" grande="" inline="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana="">Ben Bernanke gave all his money to companies such as Citibank, Fannie Mae, General Motors, and (primarily) the US Treasury, which spent it faster than it came in. It was gone as fast as it was printed, and very little of it actually added to national economic growth. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span 18px="" arial="" class="text_exposed_show" font-family:="" grande="" inline="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana=""><br /></span>
<span 18px="" arial="" class="text_exposed_show" font-family:="" grande="" inline="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana="">By way of contrast, Vlad Putin bought gold with his "printed money." That gold is worth much more now than when he bought it, and, keep in mind, he bought it just by rolling his monetary printing presses! In my world, Mr. Putin is BY FAR the wiser --- and smarter --- man.</span></span><br />
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<span 18px="" arial="" class="text_exposed_show" font-family:="" grande="" inline="" line-height:="" lucida="" sans-serif="" tahoma="" verdana=""><b>22 August 2014:</b> While some reports show slow periods and even temporary reversals in Russia's accumulation of gold, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/countries-with-largest-gold-reserves-2014-8" target="_blank">the most recent figures from the World Gold Council</a> show that Russia has (again) reported an increase in its official reserves since February 2014, moving its place in global national gold rankings up two additional slots. What can I say? Print money, buy gold. It's legal. Just what I don't </span>really get is why only the Russians are doing it.... (Believe me, some day, this will no longer be allowed!)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Russia (#5 globally):</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Official gold holdings:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">1,094.7 tonnes</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Percent of foreign reserves in gold:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">9.7%</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Russia has increased its gold holding since February 2014 and has eclipsed both Switzerland and China. In August 2014, Russia's central bank decided to buy up even more gold and diversify away from the dollar and the euro as a result of economic sanctions imposed by the West.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Russia's central bank gold holdings crossed the 1,000-tonne mark for the first time in Q3 2013.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Source: World Gold Council</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>22 December 2014: </b>While I disagree with Mr. Putin on many points, in particular, the suppression of diversity and political and economic freedom at home, the Russians continue to be cleverer than we in many other respects. Despite rumours that they have been selling gold, in fact, it is US dollars that they have been unloading, while (wisely) buying ever more gold.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For more information, click <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-19/russia-busts-gold-selling-rumors-reports-it-bought-another-600000-ounces-taking-gold" target="_blank">here</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>30 January 2015: </b>Russia's gold purchases were up 123% during the first 11 months of 2014, including the period during which the Ruble began to collapse. The <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/13b55dd6-a7b6-11e4-be63-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3QIJ8RsWv" target="_blank">Financial Times</a> reports:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">"Russia’s central bank purchased 152 tonnes of gold worth $6.1bn at today’s prices, according to GFMS estimates. Analysts also said Russia’s purchases might have been due to the buying of domestically produced gold that could not be easily sold overseas due to sanctions.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">“'This is a clear positive for the gold price,' said Matthew Turner, analyst at Macquarie. 'If central banks had not purchased that gold it would have been bought by private investors or jewellery consumers, and this would likely have required a lower gold price.'</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">"While Russia was a strong buyer this year, analysts say purchases could slow and the country could become a seller if it continues to liquidate its reserves to support the domestic currency."</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For the full story, click <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/13b55dd6-a7b6-11e4-be63-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3QIJ8RsWv" target="_blank">here</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>21 April 2015: </b><a href="http://www.kitco.com/news/2015-04-21/Russian-Central-Bank-Buying-Gold-Again-Positive-For-Gold-Market.html" target="_blank">Kitco News</a> reports that Russia has resumed gold buying following a 2-month hiatus (click <a href="http://www.kitco.com/news/2015-04-21/Russian-Central-Bank-Buying-Gold-Again-Positive-For-Gold-Market.html" target="_blank">here</a>):</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">"After a two-month hiatus the Central Bank of the Russian Federation jump back into the gold market, demonstrating that official demand remains strong, say analysts.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">"According to media reports, the Russian central bank bought 28 tonnes of gold in March, the biggest one-month purchase since September. In January the central bank sold 0.5 tonnes of gold and didn’t purchase anything in February.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">"The report noted, as of April 1, Russia’s official gold reserves stood at 1,128.3 tonnes, compared to the previous level of 1,207.7 tonnes. According to data from the World Gold Council, Russia has the fifth largest gold reserves in the world (not including reserves held by the International Monetary Fund).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>2 January 2016, </b>The world's smartest gold buyers have done it again. As of <a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/russia-gold-buying-spree-continues-buy-22-tons-in-november/" target="_blank">November 2015</a>, we have these figures:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- Russia adds another 700,000 ounces (22 tonnes) to gold reserves in November</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- Russian ally Kazakhstan increased gold reserves for 38th month – 7 Mil ounces</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- Russia has added 197.1 tonnes in 2015 – Compared with 172 tonnes in all 2014</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- November gold buying is Russia’s ninth straight month of increase</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- Russia now has sixth largest gold reserves in the world</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- Central bank buys all Russian gold production</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- Other Russian gold demand imported</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">- Russia views gold bullion as “100% guarantee from legal and political risks”</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Russia continues to add to its gold reserves and added another 700,000 ounces in November or another 22 metric tonnes, and analysts believe this buying will continue and may intensify in the coming months.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Russian ally Kazakhstan increased its gold reserves for a 38th month to 7.03 million ounces in November from 6.96 million ounces a month earlier.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The latest large increase in Russia’s gold reserves – a “buying spree” as reported on <a href="http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL3N14B20F20151222" style="background: 0px 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #737373; outline: 0px !important;">Reuters Africa</a> has again gone largely unnoticed by most analysts. Indeed, the important monetary and geopolitical ramifications continue to be largely ignored in western media.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Russia’s total gold reserves have now increased to 44.8 million ounces or around 1,392.8 metric tonnes (up 40% from February 2014, when this article was originally published), with a current value of just $48.3 billion. Russia’s total FX reserves are $371.2 billion and their gold allocation remains just 13% of their total reserves.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The share of gold in Russian foreign exchange reserves is much lower than in many other countries such as the U.S., Italy and France. Russian diversification into gold is likely to continue and could intensify if relations with the U.S. and NATO powers further deteriorate.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Russia still has less than a fifth of the gold reserves of the U.S. which are believed to be over 8,400 metric tonnes of gold. However, the U.S. has no foreign exchange reserves and is the largest debtor in the world – indeed it is one of the largest debtors the world has ever seen.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Russia now has the sixth highest gold reserves in the world – behind the U.S., Germany, Italy, France and China.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In 2014, Russia bought more gold in than in any year since the break-up of the Soviet Union. The country acquired over 173 metric tonnes according to World Gold Council figures. Reserve diversification intensified after April — averaging about 20 tonnes per month....</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Click <a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/russia-gold-buying-spree-continues-buy-22-tons-in-november/" target="_blank">here </a>for the full story from <a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/russia-gold-buying-spree-continues-buy-22-tons-in-november/" target="_blank">GoldCore</a>....</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Meanwhile, <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/money-supply-m2" target="_blank">Russian money supply has grown another 7%</a> since the end of 2014, an increase of about 2.2 trillion roubles. </span></div>
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As I've been commenting, why not print money and buy gold with it? The Russians have got it figured out....
<b>20 September 2016. </b>The Russians have outdone themselves again. Russia, which has defaulted 5 times and has been in that state for 10 of the last 26 years, just sold a stack of bonds to a collection of hedge funds, pensions and "smart" buyers. Some if not all the proceeds at the government level apparently went to buy yet another 700,000 ounces (21.77 metric tons) of gold in a single month! The Russians are truly unequaled at the level of long-term financial strategy. Click <a href="http://www.marketslant.com/articles/putin-short-bonds-long-gold" target="_blank">here </a>for more information. </div>
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There is more information <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">here</a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">, regarding Russia's fast-rising store of gold. </span>
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Clearly the Russians know something we don't!<br />
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<b>22 March 2018. </b>When bars of gold came flying out of a cargo plane taking off from a Siberian airport earlier this month, littering the run-way with precious metal, it was more than symbolic: Russia is hoarding gold, and it’s apparently got so much it can’t keep it contained.<br />
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Russia’s been hoarding gold for a while—but it’s going for a new record in 2018, dumping U.S. treasuries for gold at a rate not seen in years as it overtakes China for fifth place among the world’s sovereign holders of the precious metal....<br />
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<a href="https://safehaven.com/article/45142/Russian-Gold-Reserves-Hit-Record-High-Amid-Rising-Tensions-With-West" target="_blank"><b>Russian Gold Reserves Hit Record High Amid Rising Tensions With West</b></a></div>
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<b>29 July 2018.</b> Russia added 500,000 ounces of gold (15.55174 tons) to reserves in June and bought some 106 tons of gold since the start of the year, with total reserves now approaching the 2,000-metric-ton mark. Last year, Russia added a record 224 tons of gold to the reserves. </div>
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Notably, the Bank of Russia has been buying gold every month since March 2015, overtaking China as the fifth-largest sovereign holder of gold. Russia‘s U.S. dollar reserves have also shrunk from $96.1 billion in March to just $14.9 billion in May, according to the Russian Central Bank. Its governor, Elvira Nabiullina, says the decision will help protect the Russian economy and diversify the bank’s reserves.</div>
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It's striking that while other central banks have gotten rid of gold and accumulated US dollars, the Russians have been far smarter, getting rid of US dollars and accumulating gold. </div>
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<b><a href="https://safehaven.com/commodities/precious-metals/Russia-Ditches-US-Dollar-For-Gold-As-Tensions-Rise45847.html" target="_blank">Russia Ditches U.S. Dollar For Gold As Tensions Rise</a></b></div>
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<b>22 November 2019.</b> The Russians are beating the western nations at strategy at every turn. Russia added 9.3 metric tonnes of gold to its official reserve position in October. Gold is now 22% of official reserves. The country's total gold reserve is now 2,252 metric tonnes, much less than the U.S., but twice as much as the U.S. holds on a gold-to-GDP basis. Yes, America holds the world's largest store of gold, but that is because of responsible past leadership. The Russians and the Chinese are living in the present, and alert to what is going on now.</div>
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Further to Russia's advantage, the US dollar gold price has doubled since 2006. </div>
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Buy gold for free, and multiply times two! </div>
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Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-4503488561591160182019-02-21T00:16:00.000-06:002019-02-21T01:52:26.609-06:00Dow Crash Reaches Second Decade - in Gold Terms<span style="font-family: "arial";">21 February 2008</span>, Updated 21 & 23 February 2009 and 21 February 2019<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYa1Dn8RWyGCMT8qrURgf8GcBGmxUiJ9pMYr6W3QPzLnaTActxvYPcbMu-BOkU0-GNSd14Hvom9-QhANjGAziWViTJSsJ1QpzFaGpet7J-cr0SUX4uOIdZePgzH1uQGarkATCr/s1600-h/Knut_bear_cub.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5169493537421345522" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYa1Dn8RWyGCMT8qrURgf8GcBGmxUiJ9pMYr6W3QPzLnaTActxvYPcbMu-BOkU0-GNSd14Hvom9-QhANjGAziWViTJSsJ1QpzFaGpet7J-cr0SUX4uOIdZePgzH1uQGarkATCr/s400/Knut_bear_cub.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 129px; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; width: 185px;" /></a><span style="font-family: "arial";">I originally posted this article eleven years ago, on February 21, 2008. It has not been rewritten for contemporary circumstances. Rather, I would like the article to stand as a testament to my 2008 viewpoint on the investment markets. The following text is unedited from 2008:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">I am reposting this piece as the theme remains timely. The Dow crash in gold terms will complete its first decade in August of this year. What then? In my view, the second decade of the "real Dow crash" will then begin. Read on for more information. Or, if you recall reading this last year, my updated analysis is at the end of this article. The text below was composed on February 21, 2008:<br /><br />There has always been speculation as to whether the venerable Dow-Jones Industrial Average will crash in response to one economic event or another. The crisis of the day tends to spark renewed interest in this topic, including various analogies to the great crash of 1929. Of course, today's crisis is the subprime meltdown and the spurious lending and securitization practices that underlie it. Will the present financial and real estate bubble cause the Dow to crash again?</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQYg9ABUGlQ9BYcg6l1oboryreBM_L1cfl-lRDvf-511uMkisY_N9OorO8gfsDJcYIp4FDlhc0yMluFXf8eWNbIiaFVRULMVPdAuQJmz9-sMkfTmyxEbSVsqswJBDBFl-rUjAS/s1600-h/balloon-aloft-3S.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5169495556055974658" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQYg9ABUGlQ9BYcg6l1oboryreBM_L1cfl-lRDvf-511uMkisY_N9OorO8gfsDJcYIp4FDlhc0yMluFXf8eWNbIiaFVRULMVPdAuQJmz9-sMkfTmyxEbSVsqswJBDBFl-rUjAS/s400/balloon-aloft-3S.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; float: right; height: 221px; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; width: 166px;" /></a><span style="font-family: "arial";">Today's post is intended to keep questions such as this in perspective.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">When you measure the Dow in terms of real money (gold), it in fact reached its peak in August 1999, and has declined steadily since that time. In late August 1999, one unit of the Dow Industrials would have cost you 44.84 ounces of gold. That of course would not have been a good buy if you were then a holder of gold (though </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Brown" style="font-family: arial;">Gordon Brown</a><span style="font-family: "arial";">, then Chancellor of the Exchequer for Great Britain, was selling the last of the mighty empire's great store of gold at bargain basement prices at that time; in fact, </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Brown" style="font-family: arial;">Mr. Brown sold 60% of Britain's gold at a lowly $275 per ounce between 1999-2002</a><span style="font-family: "arial";">, one of the worst acts of market timing by a government official in recorded history - and government officials are rarely noted for their economic acumen - Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher partially excepted!).</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5fNqrGYeXBv0JGrhYVN4dvL220a3mfIKE21G0W2ext2cqu-aaIwWuWT4pHJRt9wu69PcZYTQ-z3IuIiRXvblozPpOU66zDl30Vf7NoZAjOybowmbslAUbfi7t5Cw980Fx_zj9/s1600-h/Dow_1999_peak.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5169493146579321570" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5fNqrGYeXBv0JGrhYVN4dvL220a3mfIKE21G0W2ext2cqu-aaIwWuWT4pHJRt9wu69PcZYTQ-z3IuIiRXvblozPpOU66zDl30Vf7NoZAjOybowmbslAUbfi7t5Cw980Fx_zj9/s400/Dow_1999_peak.png" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center;" /></a><span style="font-family: "arial";">If you had held onto your gold in 1999, and waited until today to buy the Dow, you could have had it more cheaply. At today's prices, roughly 13 ounces of gold will now buy you a unit of the Dow. That is, you get a single Dow unit for 32 fewer ounces of gold, which remains a timeless currency with relatively stable purchasing power. Let's round that off, and call it a 70% discount.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizFXuAA7b9hDy3OzZKNvetQ4ex2Ps1ktRC-fzxctglH7frd6055cgvRrHVEJCUKoYEjxQldxKIxNZ6xB3wE8WV0YibuiLBmlN_O0WSWTF63xyEniIt7Aju-7kdhpM8ZJ0icFUX/s1600-h/Dow_Gold_21feb08.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5169492811571872466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizFXuAA7b9hDy3OzZKNvetQ4ex2Ps1ktRC-fzxctglH7frd6055cgvRrHVEJCUKoYEjxQldxKIxNZ6xB3wE8WV0YibuiLBmlN_O0WSWTF63xyEniIt7Aju-7kdhpM8ZJ0icFUX/s400/Dow_Gold_21feb08.png" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center;" /></a><span style="font-family: "arial";">Or, alternatively, let's just say that the crash of the Dow is now in its 9th year, and that it has so far fallen 70% while facing into the headwinds of the mega-inflationary 21st century.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Is the Dow done falling, now that the Dow-to-gold ratio stands at 1:13 vs. almost 1:45 only 8-1/2 short years ago?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Not according to those who engage in long-term analysis.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">In fact, the Dow has tended to bottom against the price of gold at roughly a one-to-one ratio every 40-50 years. As </span><a href="http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/hommelberg040805.html" style="font-family: arial;">Eric Hommelberg's 2005 chart of the Dow-to-Gold ratio</a><span style="font-family: "arial";"> shows, you could last have bought a unit of the Dow for the cost of about one ounce of gold in 1980 (when an ounce of gold at $887.50 per ounce was almost as valuable in (nominal) dollar terms as it is today (gold presently stands at about $950 per ounce). Mr. Hommelberg was conservative in 2005, speculating that the Dow might fall to the value of as many as 5 ounces of gold. Three years later, Mr. Hommelberg's projection now appears quite modest.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJjWEFVb5ElJWGfT04aoqnS7fQDlV-N33EYZq47ITUCibuQPpVjcW7aOroU6q7KDsY9rkpcDcgv9q_vnx35uPDJoQ1Aud9jNOP-uqByvjd5dXGX6bAYKK8OZgPdxe4y4q506Mz/s1600-h/dow_gold_1930-2002.gif" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5169492081427432130" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJjWEFVb5ElJWGfT04aoqnS7fQDlV-N33EYZq47ITUCibuQPpVjcW7aOroU6q7KDsY9rkpcDcgv9q_vnx35uPDJoQ1Aud9jNOP-uqByvjd5dXGX6bAYKK8OZgPdxe4y4q506Mz/s400/dow_gold_1930-2002.gif" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center;" /></a><span style="font-family: "arial";">What are the implications?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">If you are more patient (and prescient) than Gordon Brown, and hold onto your gold a bit longer, perhaps another 10-20 years, the chances are that you will be able to buy one unit of the mighty Dow-Jones Industrial Average for a single ounce of gold - possibly less, approximately a 98% discount to the deal that Gordon Brown got for the British government, beginning at the Dow's gold peak in 1999.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Is the Dow, therefore, going to crash again?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">I hope you can see now that this is the wrong question.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">It already has.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyV8Ga8EqcfxgLhJpH8xmJCZcRxNqLp6F8p15oykXPqxzkzP19B_91Tz4DHYwqk36G5oschI3cOa4rDOYnoYyiuEqyffe7JAtKwvrPkA7hsc6UYxqDFJpodJgR607JYAMpFPLU/s1600-h/r4110253533.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5169496015617475346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyV8Ga8EqcfxgLhJpH8xmJCZcRxNqLp6F8p15oykXPqxzkzP19B_91Tz4DHYwqk36G5oschI3cOa4rDOYnoYyiuEqyffe7JAtKwvrPkA7hsc6UYxqDFJpodJgR607JYAMpFPLU/s400/r4110253533.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; float: right; height: 168px; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; width: 130px;" /></a><span style="font-family: "arial";">The Dow has so far fallen 70% against the price of gold in the 8-1/2 years since the Dow's August 1999 peak in gold terms, and it is presently just in its next leg down, as today's charts make abundantly clear. (Click <a href="http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3604.html">here </a>for a current analysis by <a href="http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3604.html">Captain Hook</a>.)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Chances are, the Dow has another 28% to go before it's done - when a single unit of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average will be of the same value as a single ounce of gold. At that time, the Dow will have collapsed 98% against the price of gold.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">I guess you could call that a Dow crash.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">21 & 23 February 2009:</span><br /><br />Since posting this article one year ago, at which time 13 ounces of gold were required to buy the </span><span style="font-family: "arial";">Dow-Jones Industrial Average, the trends I identified have if anything accelerated.<br /><br />In a short year, you now get almost "twice the Dow" for your amount of gold, as the Dow has fallen almost another 50% in gold terms over the past 12 months. 7 ounces of gold will presently buy you the </span><span style="font-family: "arial";">Dow-Jones Industrial Average, as compared to </span><span style="font-family: "arial";">44.84 ounces of gold in August 1999, or 13 ounces of gold in February 2008. That is, the Dow:Gold ratio has now slipped by 84%.</span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXvBirq8nLCNCKAm-UF3PLkFBkUvlCzTnvtz8ZTEZM_hc9ru4bRHtzofk-lGdcQdByv3wcPFvFKEJH_-Vqm7hgDWwRMQTwP0FItCLpNENNu6q-3xRhfy53Df_0-d9rVd-yDvw1fw/s1600-h/DOW-GOLD_23feb09.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5306255365539331234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXvBirq8nLCNCKAm-UF3PLkFBkUvlCzTnvtz8ZTEZM_hc9ru4bRHtzofk-lGdcQdByv3wcPFvFKEJH_-Vqm7hgDWwRMQTwP0FItCLpNENNu6q-3xRhfy53Df_0-d9rVd-yDvw1fw/s400/DOW-GOLD_23feb09.png" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 314px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" /></a><span style="font-family: "arial";">Want my advice?</span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWBzJVeySKOCeoMsTSIsDT2iHVhFL5cr8NV8Dxj33lH0Bai4ahGaHU08hPqBegi-Iya6vIvzbcBs_-7RtM1kqRn5EePBuwN8qMjfMVLU2eUOM0nqClW7fpGyQxxo3y1eMbU-Zhrw/s1600-h/gold-bars-775426.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5305293745001181026" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWBzJVeySKOCeoMsTSIsDT2iHVhFL5cr8NV8Dxj33lH0Bai4ahGaHU08hPqBegi-Iya6vIvzbcBs_-7RtM1kqRn5EePBuwN8qMjfMVLU2eUOM0nqClW7fpGyQxxo3y1eMbU-Zhrw/s400/gold-bars-775426.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 121px; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; width: 153px;" /></a><span style="font-family: "arial";">The Dow is still no bargain. Don't cash in that 7 ounces of gold for the Dow, but hold onto your gold - for further long-term appreciation. This trend has years to run, as the "real Dow crash" completes its first decade. As of August this year, the Dow crash against gold will enter its second decade, and the crash - or collapse, if you prefer - will simply continue.<br /><br />Gold has much further to rise, and the Dow much further to fall. A unit of the Dow for 7 ounces of gold remains no more a bargain than when 45 - or 13 - ounces of gold were required to purchase the Dow in 1999 or 2008!</span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJSmKC044hcLwXVA8Js5R8W73n9bi21qLv7l1j8-Noz7Hq9thx9fdHxWzc1qRTA9g3EQo0R2CbmVjH7zSB9VFbadxqKZqdAVltJa7C5y4duWhMqCSL15GN11wtxn_gN_I9MB4eMQ/s1600-h/gold_abstract.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5305294204185287906" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJSmKC044hcLwXVA8Js5R8W73n9bi21qLv7l1j8-Noz7Hq9thx9fdHxWzc1qRTA9g3EQo0R2CbmVjH7zSB9VFbadxqKZqdAVltJa7C5y4duWhMqCSL15GN11wtxn_gN_I9MB4eMQ/s400/gold_abstract.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; float: right; height: 172px; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; width: 186px;" /></a><span style="font-family: "arial";">Let me emphasize that I am not predicting short-term trends here. The Dow might rise for several months, and gold could fall for several months. I believe short-term market prediction is essentially impossible. But why take the chance? The trend is clear. If you did not exit mainstream equities in 1999, or even in 2008, you can still get out now.<br /><br />Gold - though volatile in price on a short-term basis - remains a safe and comfortable companion in uncertain economic times. And in our present case - where is the uncertainty? We know that the foundations of the economy are at their most unstable in almost a century - and, as a consequence of leverage and other forms of financial gymnastics - perhaps at their most unstable in all of human history. Gold is the obvious choice in such circumstances.</span><span style="font-family: "arial";"><br />(See also these related posts, <a href="http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/2008/03/real-dow-crash-dow-versus-amex-gold.html">comparing the Dow to the AMEX Gold Bugs (HUI) Index</a>, and exploring the issue of "<a href="http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/2008/04/brief-compendium-of-financial-disaster.html">financial disasters.</a>")</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";"><b>UPDATE FEBRUARY 21, 2019: </b>Here's how the Dow looks in nominal (non-inflation-adjusted) terms. It seems to be doing well, particularly since 2009. However, appearances can be and frequently are deceiving, especially in the investment markets. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfKsR4m6KY4mZg8_sffZB_H5nCGqwuUawI6nHZJz56JDxvUub-em2g4_XX-iHcMU54_yKHBbNYcTqxzv2rjARLdNQtCXhsS4Q7PfsW_vqIU3nF6aZjMHTf7AGY9jeKK0O9iDdSSw/s1600/dow+1990-2019.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="850" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfKsR4m6KY4mZg8_sffZB_H5nCGqwuUawI6nHZJz56JDxvUub-em2g4_XX-iHcMU54_yKHBbNYcTqxzv2rjARLdNQtCXhsS4Q7PfsW_vqIU3nF6aZjMHTf7AGY9jeKK0O9iDdSSw/s320/dow+1990-2019.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">By way of contrast, in gold terms, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 57% of its value since 1999, and that is not adjusted for inflation, which has been quite considerable over the past 20 years, and more than the government is willing to tell you. Using <a href="http://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/1999?amount=100" target="_blank">official numbers</a>, you must subtract an additional 34% from your adjusted 1999 investment amount (43% remaining, minus 34% inflation, leaving only 28% of your original investment intact). <b>This calculation yields a (marginal) inflation-adjusted 20-year loss of 72% in gold terms</b>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Once you take out the inflation, there is just about nothing left, except you do get to keep your dividends. To be clear, dividends are nice to have, but when you have lost 72% of your principle, the dividend is best attributed to "return" of principle (I would say "destruction" of principle). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Keep in mind that inflation is much higher than the government reports. A rough estimate is that very likely 90% of your principle is already gone, 20 years later (when contrasted to a scenario in which you had purchased gold with your investment funds, rather than the Dow). </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgboI0-_-iIfpBetHwVSUUdLNmcdjH3ewsKgTmwFJx0aPNYdQi2BtquvdBPXhFv0XdpZw4ndduLZ4LhOQJKbRI-hNHXC188A2e0QPH49qqPFBtk-ZUjULcvs0pHkw6QiMgSUK4pOA/s1600/gold+1990-2019.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="633" data-original-width="850" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgboI0-_-iIfpBetHwVSUUdLNmcdjH3ewsKgTmwFJx0aPNYdQi2BtquvdBPXhFv0XdpZw4ndduLZ4LhOQJKbRI-hNHXC188A2e0QPH49qqPFBtk-ZUjULcvs0pHkw6QiMgSUK4pOA/s320/gold+1990-2019.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Further, after falling from 2011 to 2015 in US dollar terms, gold has renewed its uptrend since December 2015 (so far modestly, though definitively). Gold's greater than 3-year renewed uptrend implies a return to a downtrend in the Dow on the Dow:Gold ratio chart, quite likely very soon. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivYLIjzlKtwV443flekegP5ENVnjzGiMpUAa2TxCveesAS3iThmeXGRNgEJRGEZnTX1QpwamyJB-MawxE4oLbIPoG4SDENX-1Z_MXrL1ggX84K1x9USA78ETgTOjD_WN6SOp4cgg/s1600/dow-gold+1990-2019.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="633" data-original-width="850" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivYLIjzlKtwV443flekegP5ENVnjzGiMpUAa2TxCveesAS3iThmeXGRNgEJRGEZnTX1QpwamyJB-MawxE4oLbIPoG4SDENX-1Z_MXrL1ggX84K1x9USA78ETgTOjD_WN6SOp4cgg/s320/dow-gold+1990-2019.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";"><br />You'll recall that 44 ounces of gold were required to buy the Dow in 1999. That number fell to 13 ounces in 2008. While the Dow has obviously recovered considerably, and is currently at new (all-time record) nominal highs, you can still purchase the Dow for only 19 ounces of gold, yielding the 57% cost saving we discussed earlier. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Are we again approaching a time when you can buy the Dow for only 1-5 ounces of gold? As we saw above, that happened in the 1930s, and again in the 1970s (and came as close as 7 ounces of gold in 2009). Cycles tend to repeat, and it's virtually certain that this will happen again.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";"><b>My advice:</b> If you haven't done so already, get out of the stock market now, while your savings are still intact, and maintain a substantial portion of your savings in the precious metal sector (the percentage is up to you, though the standard recommendation of "10%" is insufficient for current circumstances --- I suggest 50% or more as a proportion appropriate to today's highly dangerous bubble conditions in all asset markets). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">And: Click <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiDzLKOp8zgAhUwIDQIHYo5DwUQjhx6BAgBEAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fgoldsurvivalguide.co.nz%2Fdow-gold-ratio-how-gold-compare-to-shares-past-100-years%2F&psig=AOvVaw37dVZ802Cd5DGGoWRJObiV&ust=1550819074604612" target="_blank">here </a>for a great discussion of this topic: </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiDzLKOp8zgAhUwIDQIHYo5DwUQjhx6BAgBEAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fgoldsurvivalguide.co.nz%2Fdow-gold-ratio-how-gold-compare-to-shares-past-100-years%2F&psig=AOvVaw37dVZ802Cd5DGGoWRJObiV&ust=1550819074604612" target="_blank">Dow Gold Ratio: How Does Gold Compare to Shares For the Past 100 Years?</a></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHbZ_8F-0uceAEruQdHqNKBgFzBjdKdh46x-rsM6axFalZ5zNqr7wDomKVTJNOy7fLZFYAPkaKCohmYrv00jwmtq5cTauJT8fwTsqB-DQrUNTKG7KVDo5VXtgQjjR7iQO-CTNgPQ/s1600/dow-to-gold+since+1900+with+fiat+collapse+of+stock+market.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="625" data-original-width="943" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHbZ_8F-0uceAEruQdHqNKBgFzBjdKdh46x-rsM6axFalZ5zNqr7wDomKVTJNOy7fLZFYAPkaKCohmYrv00jwmtq5cTauJT8fwTsqB-DQrUNTKG7KVDo5VXtgQjjR7iQO-CTNgPQ/s320/dow-to-gold+since+1900+with+fiat+collapse+of+stock+market.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: arial;">_</span>Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-47362035738997866742019-01-01T15:06:00.003-06:002019-01-01T15:38:37.459-06:00The New Fusion Industry Association Opens the Door to an Accelerated Pace of Fusion Power Development1 January 2019<br />
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The new <a href="https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/members" target="_blank">Fusion Industry Association</a> is mentioned in the <a href="http://www.psfc.mit.edu/news/2018/on-the-right-path-to-fusion-energy" target="_blank">article excerpt below</a>. The Fusion Industry Association is a registered non-profit organization composed of <a href="https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/members" target="_blank">private companies</a> working to commercialize fusion power. The Association advocates for policies that would accelerate the race to fusion energy. From the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Plasma Science and Fusion Center (click <a href="http://www.psfc.mit.edu/news/2018/on-the-right-path-to-fusion-energy" target="_blank">here</a>):<br />
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A new report on the development of fusion as an energy source, written at the request of the U.S. Secretary of Energy, proposes adoption of a national fusion strategy that closely aligns with the course charted in recent years by MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center (PSFC) and privately funded Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS), a recent MIT spinout.<br />
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Fusion technology has long held the promise of producing safe, abundant, carbon-free electricity, while struggling to overcome the daunting challenges of creating and harnessing fusion reactions to produce net energy gain. But the Consensus Study Report from the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine states that magnetic-confinement fusion technology (an MIT focus since the 1970s) is now “sufficiently advanced to propose a path to demonstrate fusion generated energy within the next several decades.”<br />
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It recommends continued U.S. participation in the international ITER fusion facility project and “a national program of accompanying research and technology leading to the construction of a compact pilot plant that produces electricity from fusion at the lowest possible capital cost.”<br />
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That approach (which the report says would require up to $200 million in additional annual funding for several decades) leverages opportunities presented by new-generation superconducting magnets, reactor materials, simulators, and other relevant technologies. Of particular emphasis from the committee is the advances in high-temperature superconducting magnets which can access higher fields and smaller machines. The report recommends a U.S. program to prove out high-field large-bore magnets. They are seen as enabling faster and less-costly cycles of learning and development than extremely large experiments like ITER, which will not come on line until 2025, while still benefitting from the knowledge that emerges from those programs.<br />
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This smaller-faster-cheaper approach is embodied in the SPARC reactor concept, which was developed at the PSFC and forms the foundation of CFS’s aggressive effort to demonstrate energy-gain fusion by the mid-2020s and produce practical reactor designs by the early 2030s. This approach is based on the similar conclusion that high-field high-temperature magnets represent a game-changing technology.<br />
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A $30 million program between CFS and MIT to demonstrate the high-field large bore superconducting magnets is underway at MIT and is a key step to a compact fusion energy system. <b>Despite a handful of other privately funded fusion companies having offered roughly comparable (10 to 15-year) timelines, the National Academies report does not envision demonstration fusion reactors appearing until the 2050 time frame</b> (my emphasis).<br />
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The report also affirms that the scientific underpinnings of the tokamak approach have been strengthened over the previous decade, giving increasing confidence that this approach, which is the basis of ITER and SPARC, is capable of achieving net energy gain and forming the basis for a power plant. Based on this increased confidence the committee recommends moving forward with technology developments for a pilot power plant that would put power on the grid.<br />
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“The National Academies are a very thoughtful organization, and they’re typically very conservative,” says Bob Mumgaard, chief executive officer of CFS. “We’re glad to see them come out with a message that it’s time to move into fusion, and that compact and economical is the way to go. We think development should go faster, but it gives validation to people who want to tackle the challenge and lays out things we can do in the U.S. that will lead toward putting power on the grid.”<br />
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Andrew Holland, director of the recently formed <b><a href="https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/members" target="_blank">Fusion Industry Association</a></b> and Senior Fellow for Energy and Climate at the American Security Project, notes that the report’s authors were charged with creating “a consensus science report that reflects current pathways, and the current pathway is to build ITER and go through the experimental process there, while meanwhile designing a pilot plant, DEMO.”<br />
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Shifting the consensus toward a faster way forward, adds Holland, will require experimental results from companies like CFS. “That’s why it’s notable to have privately funded companies in the U.S. and around the world pursuing the scientific results that will bear this out. And it’s certainly important that this study is aimed at getting the government-based science community to think about a strategic plan. It should be seen as part of a starting gun for the fusion community coming together and organizing its own process.”<br />
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Or, as Martin Greenwald, deputy director of the PSFC and a veteran fusion researcher, puts it, “There’s a tendency in our community to argue about a 20-year plan or a 30-year plan, but we don’t want to take our eyes off what we need to do in the next three to five years. We might not have consensus on the long scale, but we need one for what to do now, and that’s been the consistent message since we announced the SPARC project — engaging the broader community and taking the initiative.<br />
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“The key thing to us is that if fusion is going to have an impact on climate change, we need answers quickly, we can’t wait until the end of century, and that’s driving the schedule. The private money that’s coming in helps, but public funding should engage with and complement that. Each side has an appropriate role. National labs don’t build power plants, and private companies don’t do basic research.”<br />
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The MIT article continues <a href="http://www.psfc.mit.edu/news/2018/on-the-right-path-to-fusion-energy" target="_blank">as linked above</a>.<br />
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It looks as though I have more research to do. I have identified <a href="http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/2018/07/is-compact-fusion-power-now-fewer-that.html" target="_blank">21 currently active fusion power development programs</a> (click <a href="http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/2018/07/is-compact-fusion-power-now-fewer-that.html" target="_blank">here</a>), but there may be <a href="https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/members" target="_blank">a few more to explore</a>, via their memberships in the new <a href="https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/members" target="_blank">Fusion Industry Association</a><span id="goog_1730273549"></span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/"></a><span id="goog_1730273550"></span>.... Note that while primarily US companies are represented, the membership of the Fusion Industry Association is already international.<br />
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Note: The Fusion Industry Association is also on <a href="https://twitter.com/Fusion_Industry" target="_blank">Twitter </a>(click <a href="https://twitter.com/Fusion_Industry" target="_blank">here</a>).<br />
_Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-84744277842737381752018-12-23T14:36:00.000-06:002018-12-25T22:44:35.088-06:00CANADA NEEDS TO DEVELOP ITS OIL AND POST-CARBON TECHNOLOGIES CONCURRENTLY --- OIL IS A TRANSITIONAL TECHNOLOGY23 December 2018<br />
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Carbon emissions rose 3 per cent in 2018 and look set to keep rising in 2019. The amount of renewable energy we produce is growing quickly, but global demand for energy is growing faster. Just a quarter of the rise in energy demand in 2017 was met by renewables, according to the International Energy Agency, the body predicting an upcoming <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24032092-600-2019-preview-renewable-energy-race-to-ramp-up-as-oil-use-skyrockets/" target="_blank">100 million barrels per day oil-consumption milestone</a>.<br />
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That is, we're going to use more oil before we use less. This is applicable to Canada, as we're doing it backwards here. In fact, Canada officially views oil as a sunset industry, and is trying to rein in oil production now, without doing very much at all to develop post-carbon alternatives.<br />
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I propose an entirely different path. We should instead view oil as a transitional technology, still in increasing use. Those are the facts. Thus, Canada should continue to develop its oil industry, especially to get oil from Alberta to the east and to export more of it.<br />
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My plan (1) makes Canada more energy independent (why are we importing Saudi oil to Eastern Canada, rather than developing Alberta oil and shipping it eastwards by the safest possible method --- pipeline?); and (2) greatly increases tax revenues and Canadian jobs, and thus Canadian wealth.<br />
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WIth more money and more jobs, we can then afford to invest much more in post-carbon technologies, meaning that (1) Canada can be a more important oil-producing nation (why leave this to the Saudis?); and (2) Canada can be a more important post-carbon nation, developing more post-carbon energy technologies, putting them into use sooner, and selling them to the world as an innovation leader.<br />
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How about a serious <a href="http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/2018/07/is-compact-fusion-power-now-fewer-that.html" target="_blank">fusion power initiative</a> in Canada, funded by increased oil revenues?<br />
_Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-10845931546449750792017-10-09T14:53:00.000-05:002017-10-09T15:02:41.549-05:00For America, There Can Be No Returning to North Korea<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">9 October 2017</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2007/05/07/david-halberstam" target="_blank">David Halberstam</a> has been gone ten years now. I had not realized that he had died in an automobile accident on April 23, 2007. He was one of my great heroes in uncovering the misdirected brutality and needlessness of the Vietnam War. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Recently, I've been revisiting the Korean Conflict, which was raging at the time of my birth, and thus a part only of my indirect memory. I do recall that at school, we were told to finish the food on our plates, because Korean children didn't have enough to eat. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It turns out that Mr. Halberstam, originally a "liberal" supporter of the Vietnam War who had turned strongly against it after travelling to Vietnam to report it firsthand, had also disassembled the Korean Conflict. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/23/books/review/Frankel-t.html" target="_blank">The Coldest Winter</a>, Halberstam's history of the Korean War focuses on the egregious missteps of General Douglas MacArthur, who directed what became a holocaust, also presiding over the greatest American military loss since the (thankful) defeat at Little Bighorn. I recall that even as a young child, my parents had warned me of MacArthur's wrongheaded attitudes and failed campaigns. The New Yorker has summarized Mr. Halberstam's career here. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Let me say at the outset that in my view, America was right to defend South Korea against the Stalin-inspired surprise invasion which threatened to collapse the two Koreas into one totalitarian communist police state in a matter of literally days. However, as Halberstam makes clear, MacArthur committed a series of drastic strategic errors after successfully winning back the south through a brilliant encircling tactical maneuver launched from Inchon. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Rather than halting at what is now the DMZ, MacArthur launched a full-scale assault on the North, not believing the Chinese would send forces to their aid. When hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops met his advances, an American military disaster ensued, and this was followed in turn by what has been described as the near total retaliatory destruction of every major structure standing in North Korea, drastically punishing its civilian population. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">At the end, the death toll stood at 33,000 Americans, 415,000 South Koreans, and, one among many estimates, 1.5 million (perhaps 2-3 million) North Koreans and Chinese --- on the order of 20% of the population of North Korea left dead in the first great post-war holocaust. (Until let go by President Truman, MacArthur sought to assuage his defeat and finish his devastation of the North by launching a nuclear assault on China.) </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Given today's renewed hostilities with North Korea, we would be well-advised to be alert to its history. I am in no way sympathetic to the brutal, totalitarian North Korean regime, but in the light of history, it is rational to conclude that the present impasse with the North is not America's to resolve. North Korea is now a regional Asian problem. We should not, indeed, cannot, go back to North Korea. MacArthur's dark legacy cannot be escaped.</span><br />
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Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-49966460501824023662017-10-07T14:20:00.004-05:002017-10-09T14:53:39.202-05:00The Three Holocaust Perpetrators of the Past Century: The Nazis, the Communists, and the Americans<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">7 October 2017</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmbiqTfyUGnVLN6E391peT5Jo_ZzsJ41CknC6YXJA5EriwZuuP9JJOiDm9u_vxMyyZ3II7n1i2e_AaVEWU7JQxUWNFJyphA4h8rwgrMm2JsuCFufMWvXjN7iyMc6nfU2z9Ec3FNg/s1600/US-military-why-did-you-kill-my-family-400x256.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="256" data-original-width="400" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmbiqTfyUGnVLN6E391peT5Jo_ZzsJ41CknC6YXJA5EriwZuuP9JJOiDm9u_vxMyyZ3II7n1i2e_AaVEWU7JQxUWNFJyphA4h8rwgrMm2JsuCFufMWvXjN7iyMc6nfU2z9Ec3FNg/s320/US-military-why-did-you-kill-my-family-400x256.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I've been doing some research on holocausts. This is not a pleasant topic, but it is one of our era's inescapable realities. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Prior to the past century, there have been many other holocausts and genocides, with assaults on indigenous people and the engagement in slave-trading by European and Asian colonialists the most extensive over the past several centuries. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Here are the quick numbers for roughly the past century (and I don't believe you can get this in one place):</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">1. The Nazis/Fascists killed 17 million or more people prior to and during WWII. They targeted Jews, Poles, Slavs, Russians, Romany, disabled people and other social minority groups. The holocaust began with killings of disabled citizens and non-German babies, and spread from there. The intent to wipe Jewish people from the face of the earth was total. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">2. The communists have killed 85-100 million, with Stalin responsible for the deaths of 10 million or more, and Mao having killed 40 million or more. The communists are noted for killing and imprisoning those who resist their totalitarian vision of centralized total state authority. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">3. Not usually listed, but regrettably and most clearly also meeting the criteria for holocaust perpetration, <a href="https://www.globalresearch.ca/us-has-killed-more-than-20-million-people-in-37-victim-nations-since-world-war-ii/5492051" target="_blank">the United States has left 20-30 million dead</a> through military action and strategic arms sales since WWII. Americans target those who are identified as hostile to US interests and security, but the definition has been loose, and, repeatedly, American interventions have been extended, disproportionate and difficult to rationalize. Millions have died through US interventions in North Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, East Timor, and 32 other identified nations. This estimate does not include the additional many millions displaced or dead through US actions that have destabilized their nations, initiated civil wars, etc. (Libya and Syria are important recent examples).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Currently, death tolls are mounting rapidly in various Muslim states, but, so far, only the Nazis, communists and Americans have created overt holocausts during the period of recent history. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">To my eyes, Saudi Arabia is currently the most dangerous Muslim state, due to its high level of interventionism (mounting a genocidal war in Yemen, funding global terrorism and jihadism, etc.). US arms sales to the Saudis are $35 billion annually.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The US presently spends $1 trillion a year on military activities, surveillance operations and veterans' services. It is difficult to devote that much expenditure annually to such purposes without causing overt and widespread harm, and I believe that to be the actual and ongoing result of America's unfocused military and strategic adventurism.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Click <a href="https://www.globalresearch.ca/us-has-killed-more-than-20-million-people-in-37-victim-nations-since-world-war-ii/5492051" target="_blank">here </a>for more information on the <a href="https://www.globalresearch.ca/us-has-killed-more-than-20-million-people-in-37-victim-nations-since-world-war-ii/5492051" target="_blank">US-initiated holocaust</a>. </span><br />
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Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-72827431173017243622017-07-18T22:55:00.000-05:002017-07-18T23:20:09.644-05:00Putting Global Warming into Context: We are Ice Age Creatures Living on a Planet That Was Already Getting Warmer Before We Started Speeding Up the Process<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">18 July 2017</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I think I've pretty well figured it out. Speaking in terms of the Phanerozoic Era and a bit longer (750 million years or so), our planet is usually more than 7° Celsius warmer than today. The earth has already warmed almost 3° C, half of it before the industrial revolution. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">We're still in an ice age now (the ice is just disappearing rapidly). The last ice age ended roughly 280 million years ago (they don't happen often). Humans have speeded up warming dramatically. The oceans are already up 300 feet from their ice age lows. They have 225 more feet to go. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Humans and our evolutionary progenitors have existed only during the ice age of the past 6-8 million years. We can probably extend the current cool period by not putting carbon into the atmosphere (though possibly not indefinitely, and at some point, it may be too late --- possibly now). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Climate is twice as variable when the planet is cooler (as it is now). When the planet is hot, it's basically hot everywhere, and probably too hot for human survival at the equator. The sun is gradually growing warmer. Thus the long-term trend over hundreds of millions of years is almost certainly going to be towards somewhat hotter temperatures. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Modern humans have walked the earth for only 200,000 years, 2/3 of that time only in Africa. It is possible, perhaps probable, that without the recent ice age, we couldn't have come to exist. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">We were almost extinguished as a species only 70,000 years ago. Could it happen again? We should be alert to the possibility. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Thinking over the next few centuries, I'm pretty sure we'll stop adding carbon to the atmosphere, and we'll probably start removing it. Fossil carbon is limited in supply, and we've already burned most of the easy-to-find fossil carbon. It would be better to use carbon to synthesize organic molecules. To our descendants, burning carbon for fuel will appear incomprehensible. Will the end of carbon burning stop global warming, at least for a while? Not in itself. However, I'm optimistic. I think the current (natural) warming trend can be reversed or slowed, though possibly only temporarily. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It's conceivable, perhaps likely, that humans may eventually learn how to manage global mean temperature for the benefit of biological diversity. The best way to start will be by developing non-carbon forms of energy generation. While solar and wind and other sustainable methods will be helpful, fusion power will eventually transform the power grid. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Though fusion power doesn't generate carbon as a waste product, it releases considerable levels of heat, and thus will still contribute to global warming. It will be better to get started on living without carbon sooner rather than later, but we will eventually need to learn how to manage all forms of human energy generation and to regulate global climate. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">If the ice age norm of the past 6 to 8 million years can be sustained, our planet will remain more diverse. It may be that we can achieve this as a long-term climate goal. Much more examination of that question will need to take place than has so far occurred. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">A positive and desirable multi-species outcome to the current problem of global warming is possible. We must remember that what we don't know is still markedly greater than what we do know. We have much to learn, and many important decisions to make. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">_</span>Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-49028921405207242602017-07-15T17:27:00.004-05:002017-07-15T17:43:24.459-05:00WHAT WAS THE EARTH'S CLIMATE LIKE WHEN THE GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE WAS LAST AT 22° CELSIUS?<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">15 July 2017</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">I've been doing a little bit of research, based on the
observation that humans are ice age creatures, even though ice ages have made
up only 5% or so of our current era (roughly the past half billion years or
so). So today's topic is, "What was the earth like during the much warmer
climatic periods during which humans and our precursors hadn't yet
evolved?" An implication of this discussion is that, due to
human-initiated massive carbon release, we might be headed back to such
conditions sooner rather than later (that is, in a few hundred years, vs.
several million years).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The underlying question we're
asking is, "Did the earth have to cool before humans could emerge?"
Our working hypothesis is that humans are specialists in handling ecological
and climatic diversity, and that the "hot" earth that is more typical
of the last several hundred million years lacked the diversity that may have
been needed for humans and our precursors to evolve. It is notable that even
our evolutionary forebears don't show up in the fossil record until the earth
transitioned into its most recent ice age (we're technically still in it) about
6 million years ago. Homo Sapiens has about a 200,000 year history, and our
genus (homo) has been around for only about 2-1/2 million years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Well, let's take as an example the
late Cretaceous period, roughly 65 to 100 million years ago, and just preceding
the extinction of the dinosaurs: In general, the climate of the Cretaceous
Period was much warmer than at present, perhaps the warmest on a worldwide
basis than at any other time during the past 542 million years (the Phanerozoic
Eon). No ice existed at the poles. The oceans were stagnant and similar to hot
springs in temperature. Dinosaurs migrated between the Warm/Hot Temperate and
Cooler (extreme north and south) Temperate Zones as the seasons changed. High
temperature conditions were almost constant until the end of the period. The
warming may have been due to intense volcanic activity which produced large
quantities of carbon dioxide.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Floral evidence suggests that
tropical to subtropical conditions existed as far as 45° N, and temperate
conditions extended to the poles.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Large magma deposits were
sufficient to raise sea levels to extremely high elevations, creating vast,
shallow seas across the continents. The Tethys Sea connecting the tropical
oceans east to west also helped to warm the global climate. Warm-adapted plant
fossils are known from localities as far north as Alaska and Greenland, while
dinosaur fossils have been found within 15 degrees of the Cretaceous south
pole.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">An equable temperature gradient
from the equator to the poles (one-half that of the present) meant much less
climatic variability than today, and weaker global winds, which drive the ocean
currents, resulted in less upwelling and more stagnant oceans than today. This
is evidenced by widespread black shale deposition and frequent anoxic events.
Sediment cores show that tropical sea surface temperatures may have briefly
been as warm as 42° C (108° F), 17° C (31° F) warmer than at present, and that
they averaged around 37° C (99° F). Meanwhile, deep ocean temperatures were as
much as 15 to 20° C (27 to 36° F) warmer than today's.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As to geography, the continents had
differentiated from Pangaea, but were bunched together more closely than today.
A vast watery channel divided North America north to south, with only the Rocky
Mountains above the sea in the west. Despite sea levels more than 200 feet
higher than today, Antarctica and Australia were still one continent. India was
an island located east of Madagascar. There was much more sea surface, and much
less land surface.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So, there are two questions to wrap
up: (1) Is there any particular reason that our human precursors waited until the climate described above had cooled by about 10° C before showing up? (2) Are humans
and other species going to adapt well to a planet that is 7-8° C warmer than
today?<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The scientist I have so far identified who seems most interested in this question is <a href="http://humanorigins.si.edu/about/human-origins-program-team/rick-potts" target="_blank">Dr. Rick Potts</a> at the Smithsonian Institution. The following is an <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/(SICI)1520-6505(1998)7:3%3C81::AID-EVAN3%3E3.0.CO;2-A/abstract" target="_blank">abstract</a> for one of his journal articles.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieLCODvuxeyD3PHBmOXWXq-Jf7tp26RHGtwdad8ychmARqPJuf8lCS27a9zWE9VBFWhiykKA8E84FZXG8Tr7LYvWYWyCeXxqriJmxCDGcOYRL5WyG03677ZnEVArYREDyzCY9Y7g/s1600/Rick_Potts_p.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieLCODvuxeyD3PHBmOXWXq-Jf7tp26RHGtwdad8ychmARqPJuf8lCS27a9zWE9VBFWhiykKA8E84FZXG8Tr7LYvWYWyCeXxqriJmxCDGcOYRL5WyG03677ZnEVArYREDyzCY9Y7g/s1600/Rick_Potts_p.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">THE RICK POTTS HYPOTHESIS</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Variability selection (abbreviated as VS) is a process considered to link adaptive change to large degrees of environment variability. Its application to hominid evolution is based, in part, on the pronounced rise in environmental remodeling that took place over the past several million years. The VS hypothesis differs from prior views of hominid evolution, which stress the consistent selective effects associated with specific habitats or directional trends (e.g., woodland, savanna expansion, cooling). According to the VS hypothesis, wide fluctuations over time created a growing disparity in adaptive conditions. Inconsistency in selection eventually caused habitat-specific adaptations to be replaced by structures and behaviors responsive to complex environmental change. Key hominid adaptations, in fact, emerged during times of heightened variability. Early bipedality, encephalized brains, and complex human sociality appear to signify a sequence of VS adaptations—i.e., a ratcheting up of versatility and responsiveness to novel environments experienced over the past 6 million years. The adaptive results of VS cannot be extrapolated from selection within a single environmental shift or relatively stable habitat. If some complex traits indeed require disparities in adaptive setting (and relative fitness) in order to evolve, the VS idea counters the prevailing view that adaptive change necessitates long-term, directional consistency in selection. © 1998 Wiley-Liss, Inc.</span><br />
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Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-50929555448122226232017-07-15T16:49:00.001-05:002017-07-15T17:20:36.011-05:00HUMANS AS AN ICE AGE SPECIES II<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">15 July 2017</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Scientists have recorded five significant ice ages
throughout the Earth’s history: the Huronian (2.4-2.1 billion years ago),
Cryogenian (850-635 million years ago), Andean-Saharan (460-430 mya), Karoo
(360-260 mya) and Quaternary (2.6 mya-present). Approximately a dozen major
glaciations have occurred over the past 1 million years, the largest of which
peaked 650,000 years ago and lasted for 50,000 years. The most recent
glaciation period, often known simply as the “<a href="http://www.history.com/topics/ice-age" target="_blank">Ice Age</a>,” reached peak conditions
some 18,000 years ago before giving way to the interglacial Holocene epoch
11,700 years ago.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7jgDnpKBsfUfQIlXkDkpzPb_iqF7JIKb8zJg68QEhqqZYvf1BPw3SV-6hJFHwhtBtVVZv1GvPYNFHa-pjhOZhdVAD1rKGiY2MdKw4OfoXSTiVcapokQDnwPTkAeTzI76s3o2Y3A/s1600/ICE++AGE++HUMANS.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" data-original-height="173" data-original-width="291" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7jgDnpKBsfUfQIlXkDkpzPb_iqF7JIKb8zJg68QEhqqZYvf1BPw3SV-6hJFHwhtBtVVZv1GvPYNFHa-pjhOZhdVAD1rKGiY2MdKw4OfoXSTiVcapokQDnwPTkAeTzI76s3o2Y3A/s400/ICE++AGE++HUMANS.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">That humans arose during an ice age
may be due to chance, but over the last 750 million years, the chances of a
species emerging in an ice age (global mean temperature ~12C) would have been
roughly 5%, as the planet is hot (~22C) something like 80% of the time.
(Mammals showed up 220m years ago in the late Triassic, one of many warm/hot
periods.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Obviously species have had
successes against longer odds than that. However, my working hypothesis is that
there is more ecological diversity during ice ages (though not snowball earth
of 650m years ago). If the earth usually has palm trees and crocodiles in the
arctic circle, then there would be a lot less maple, walnut and apple trees
elsewhere. This is not to say that humans did not originate in the tropics, as
it seems we did, and there is a lot about the transition from forest to savanna
that I don't know much about. Also, the African drought-induced near-extinction
was apparently overcome by moving to the seashore, which gets you into the
aquatic ape and ecosystem boundary hypotheses.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Keep in mind that the planet was
2-3 C colder then than it is now, and a bit more than half the difference is
pre-industrial (most sea level rise has been/will be preindustrial). I think
it's clear on the 750m year chart that we have been in a warming phase since we
became tool and technology users, at the very least. So global warming was
already happening, though I think it's obvious that this is the first time in
geological history that fossil carbon has been burned. Thus, this cycle can go
(and obviously is going) faster and possibly higher than in the past. Other
causes of climatic variation include fluctuations in solar intensity,
atmospheric clarity and orbital variations (Milankovitch), but the big cycle
seems to be carbon-driven, which in my view is the strongest single argument
that humans putting carbon into the atmosphere is changing things (that is,
accelerating an existing trend). In fact, it is bluntly an irrefutable argument
if you study geological history.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">One can also see that at least 8
degrees C of the big fluctuations happen very quickly (less than 1 million
years) in geological terms. I honestly believe (1) that if we don't get
smarter, we'll move from 15 to 22C in only a few hundred years (a new
geological record), as that will put all the carbon there is into the atmosphere,
but also (2) given a few hundred years, we will get much smarter and actually
more or less totally eliminate carbon burning, or at least highly restrict it,
and that much sooner than that, we'll have the technologies to capture carbon
and take it back out of the atmosphere (no UN bureaucracy or carbon credit
system needed, because we'll be rich enough that we can easily afford it).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Note that around 13-14C is where
the bigger/faster moves usually happen anyway, as that is enough to get the
positive feedbacks going with methane, forest fires, tectonic rebalancing, etc.
That is, whatever the bureaucrats may think, we've been past the breakaway
threshhold for some time already.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So let's just say that humans had
tried to get their start at 22C, which would take you roughly to 35m years ago.
There would have been no coral reefs, the entire equatorial region would have
been uninhabitable (>120F), and there would have been only tropical and
desert ecosystems. I'm pretty sure it would have been a less diverse world,
which is not to say that tropical systems are not diverse.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9YA_KPFhjGnRruTXGTT4s3NXx1qOX1atDkE_r7SPlyXzaDQZlMiKxguid9SlKcXtnYRuMDwj3aj62CcMd9dG0tNNHFed1HtI7uMApuPj4Vm31TTGIQ_2NQ4lM5SC2bke8nvhAUA/s1600/megacroc..jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1268" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9YA_KPFhjGnRruTXGTT4s3NXx1qOX1atDkE_r7SPlyXzaDQZlMiKxguid9SlKcXtnYRuMDwj3aj62CcMd9dG0tNNHFed1HtI7uMApuPj4Vm31TTGIQ_2NQ4lM5SC2bke8nvhAUA/s400/megacroc..jpg" width="316" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It is probably also not
accidental that we are post Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction creatures (66ma),
as the meteor impact that extinguished 75% of earth's life forms occurred at
the height of the last warm period, which also (perhaps meaningfully) marked
the rise of mammals, though it was still very hot for another 40m+ years after
the mass extinction (there is also a current mass extinction being driven by
human modification of all planetary ecosystems). The meteor impact at 66ma
doesn't even show up on the longterm climatic cycle chart, but it would have
been very cold for a very short time, geologically.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Importantly, humans didn't show
up, even our precursors (who emerged no more than 6m years ago), until
temperatures dipped down to ice age levels. However, Haplorrhini (apes,
monkeys, tarsiers) are a human precursor who showed up immediately post
extinction event (63ma), so maybe that is also meaningful.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Finally, the real advances in
human technology have occurred in only the last few thousand years, which has
been a period of significant glacial retreat (warming with positive feedbacks
engaged long before industry started). I have just refreshed myself on Lake
Agassiz, which oversat Kenora, Ontario (where I live) as well as most of central Canada and the North
Central US. Interestingly, the central North American glaciers melted for
thousands of years without sea level rise, because the lake was held back by a
glacial dam that first broke about 13,000 years ago, then reformed, and had its
last break about 8000 years ago (both events raised sea levels several feet,
and one or both may account for the multicultural flood narratives).</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The rupturing of Lake Agassiz is
linked to the rise of systematized agricultural in Europe which enabled the rise
of cities, and that is also dependent on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation (AMOC), which sustains moderate European temperatures, but which
has reduced 30% since 1957, associated with increased warming-induced
freshwater flows into the Arctic Ocean, and thus with southward flows into the
Atlantic (conversely, the Arctic Ocean is shrinking due to warm water
penetration further north). On a positive note, when the AMOC reduces, we have
fewer Atlantic hurricanes. On the downside, Europe would turn much colder very
quickly if the circulation turns southwards (it currently forks, and half flows
north around Europe, and half flows towards West Africa.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As to unanswered questions, human
have obviously benefited by the plummeting of global temperatures to their
lowest historic levels perhaps 6-8 million years ago, but we have also
capitalized on the bounceback to warmer temperatures, which coincides with
hominid evolution over the last 2-1/2 million years. In brief, it appears that
humans thrive when ecosystems are multiple and diverse, and my best guess is
that the Quaternary Ice Age created the exact types of increasing diversity on
which emerging humans eventually capitalized.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-4133888525980393682017-07-13T17:57:00.001-05:002017-07-13T23:29:55.747-05:00IS THERE A REASON WHY HUMAN EVOLUTION OCCURRED DURING A RARE GLOBAL ICE AGE?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">13 July 2017</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I have become intrigued with the fact that modern humans
emerged roughly 2.5 million years ago, at the absolute temperature bottom of
one of the earth's relatively rare </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">cold climatic periods </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">(making up only 5% of the last 3/4 billion years or so). That is, we are
unarguably ice-age creatures. I've found a couple of new charts that illustrate
the link between human emergence and cold climate. Interestingly, a Google
search on the subject doesn't really turn up anything beyond this.</span></div>
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<img alt="Image result for human ice age origins" height="163" src="https://horizon-magazine.eu/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/field/image/Ice%20age%20humans.jpg?itok=0y6uwvnB" width="400" /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">If you look at the link between
human evolution and climate, you get articles explaining <a href="http://humanorigins.si.edu/%E2%80%A6/climate-effects-human-evolution" target="_blank">how climatic variability may have prompted aspects of human evolution</a> --- tool-making,
language, an enlarged brain case, etc., but we're talking in these cases about
variabilities in maybe a degree or two of global mean temperature, which is
small stuff if you look at the longer-term climatic record of our planet, where
there is evidence of 12-25° Celsius variation in global mean temperature
(<a href="https://www2.ucar.edu/climate/faq/what-average-global-temperature-now" target="_blank">today's mean temperature</a> is in the 14-15° C range --- still near its 12° C low
of 2-5 million years ago.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I also tried a search about humans
as ice-age creatures, and literally all that comes up are endless articles
about how hungry humans caused the extinction of the large ice-age mammals.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">An examination of global mean
temperatures over the past 700 million years makes clear that only about 35
million of those years were typified by today's still very low global mean
temperature in the range of 12-15° C (recently warming dramatically, as
everyone knows).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Note that the earth's mean
temperature is much more often in the 22° C range --- with 450-500 million of
the past 700 million years at or near that level. Strikingly, the transitions
occur rapidly in geological time, with upward or downward spikes of maybe 8° C
occurring in the space of roughly a million years (maybe less?). Positive
feedback loops --- as we are seeing today --- very likely account for those
geologically rapid transitions.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Keep in mind that our planet started out as a very hot fireball 4.5 billion years ago. Elevated levels of greenhouse gases kept the earth quite warm until oxygen-based life forms evolved. In turn, emerging photosynthetic life forms cooled the planet until the equatorial climate was similar to Antarctica today. When earth was a Precambrian snowball about 650 million years ago (visible on the above chart), there were no life forms to absorb atmospheric carbon, and it gradually reaccumulated, warming the planet again. It's probably the release of stored carbon in permafrost and seabeds that drives the return to </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">22</span>° Celsius</span>. <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Add to that today that humans are burning long-buried fossil carbon. No wonder the earth is currently warming so rapidly! </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In summary, my search for WHY
humans seem to be ice age creatures has not really turned up anything at all yet. I'm
not sure why the topic is not being actively discussed. One thing we do know is
that <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/greathumanodyssey/content/iceage/135k/index.html?platform=hootsuite" target="_blank">humans thrive at ecosystem boundaries</a>, so my current working hypothesis is
that we also do well at climatic boundaries --- that is, trending from warm to
cold and (possibly) back again. Local and regional temperature variation, which is more notable at cyclical lows than highs, would thus create the kind of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edge_effects" target="_blank">ecological variation</a> on which humans and early humans have thrived for 2-1/2 million years! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">How will humans fare when, in less
than another millions years --- and possibly in only a few centuries, the
planet goes back to its 22° C climatic norm (or possibly higher)? The process is gradual in individual human
years, but currently extremely rapid in geological and generational terms. Our children's children will
certainly be living with the ever more dramatic consequences of the current
human-induced "carbon era."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As an optimist, I believe we can
resolve most or all of the problems associated with a rapid return to a much
hotter planet. However, we'll have to be considerably more focused than at
present to accomplish the necessary ameliorations and accommodations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Based on my reading to date, we'll do best to hold back the natural and at some point inevitable return to much warmer global mean temperatures. This will enable us to save the coral reefs as well as many other species, to preserve maximum species diversity, to keep our coastal and tropical cities where they are, and to contain northward-migrating tropical and temperate region diseases. To accomplish this, we will require fusion as well as solar power, and we'll have to put robots to work to aid us in maintaining and repairing the environments and systems we have damaged. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This article provides the best summary of earth's long-term climatic variation that I have found: <a href="http://ircamera.as.arizona.edu/NatSci102/NatSci102/lectures/climate.htm" target="_blank">click here</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">_</span>Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-61426361089790918972017-02-26T11:33:00.001-06:002017-07-13T17:58:46.612-05:00Global Warming: The Future Is Now<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">26 February 2017</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As I learned in high school 50 years ago, atmospheric carbon retains energy (in the forms of both heat and motion) on and near our planet's surface. Humans put the carbon there by subjecting carbon-containing materials to combustion. This is known as global warming, the present round of which is caused by human activity. Please go back to your high school science class if any of what I just said is not clear to you. (You do not need a post-high school education to understand global warming.) </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Besides causing melting glaciers and soggy lawns surrounding Florida condos (including the Trump family's wintering grounds), the current human-induced warming is creating a wetter and hotter north. </span><br />
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<a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/nwt-climate-change-lakes-bison-1.3996652" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: small;">Climate change doubles size of lakes in N.W.T. bison sanctuary</span></a></h1>
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<img alt="Bison are a common sight along N.W.T. Highway 3 between Fort Providence and Behchoko, near the Mackenzie Bison Sanctuary." height="225" src="https://i.cbc.ca/1.3996800.1487887283!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/16x9_620/northwest-territories-bison.jpg" width="400" /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Due to other causal factors, global warming (and cooling) have happened many times before on a millennial-to-geological time scale, though never nearly so "exponentially." Many species, humans included, will have to adapt. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Relocating coastal cities is going to prove very expensive, and northward migrating diseases and increased storm intensity will affect all of us. Shifting mass on continental plates even increases earthquake and volcanic eruption risks. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Carbon credits and other bureaucratic schemes are equivalent to rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Global warming is not a reason to give new powers to governments, which most of us probably agree have too many poorly applied powers already. Obviously as a species, we need to build sturdier homes, invest in infectious disease research (impacting both plants and animals), and, as I do not tire of stating, convert our power grids to fusion energy.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Due both to the accelerating rate of change and to positive feedback loops built into the system (which we are only beginning to understand), the impacts of the current warming cycle are becoming more dramatic year by year. You can be alarmed or you can be ready. I suggest that readiness is the wiser response. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Denial won't make it stop. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Reallocating our carbon resources to organic molecular synthesis would be a mark of intellIgence at the species level. We know most everything we need to know now to cut this current carbon-combustion cycle short, and we can figure out the rest! </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The future is now.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Keep in mind that because we're discussing systems, the warming trend at this point will persist for some time, even if we cut carbon emissions to near-zero. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Regarding fusion power development, investors wIth a 20-year time horizon for return on investment (profitability will take longer!) will ultimately be the most rewarded ever in history. The funding could possibly be arranged through an income trust structure, which, unfortunately, Mark Carney (the thankfully-departed former Governor of the Bank of Canada, now wreaking havoc on Britain's currency) eliminated in Canada. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I don't think it would be that difficult to undo Carney's work and set up a specialized income trust to fund this, and Canada has prior experience with this strategy. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Thus, Canada could <a href="https://www.biv.com/article/2017/1/could-canadian-fusion-power-be-play-2030/4" target="_blank">become the world's leader</a> in fusion power development. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The one new ingredient required will be the two-decade time horizon, and some kind of political initiative will probably be required to enable an investment strategy of this kind.</span>Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-24328272894296043302017-02-13T19:24:00.002-06:002017-07-13T20:09:25.335-05:00It's Gold's Turn in the Waltz....<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">13 February 2017 - charts updated 13 July 2017</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The ups and downs have been harrowing. There is no other word for it. While the S&P 500 has easily outperformed gold since 2011, the two have been at a draw since December 2015, and gold has more than doubled the SPX (S&P 500 broad US stock index) since 2001 (when the collapse of the tech bubble triggered a renewed search for value and wealth preservation). Further, at least this is my view, stocks are inherently risky in an uncertain world, whereas gold is not --- particularly if you have a longer time horizon. As for the direction from here, I think there is no question that gold will outperform over the next 1-5 years, perhaps dramatically. It's how the two of them dance, and at this point in the exchange, it's gold's turn to shine more brightly still. It's a little bit of a waltz, but there are crescendos................</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Just to put it all in perspective, we know in retrospect that the gain in the S&P 500 from 2002-2007 was entirely a bubble (as was the 90s dust-up before that). How moderate does that now appear, in contrast to the Himalayan ascent from 2009 to now? I'm a little at a loss as to how to describe it... The S&P trades at 26x earnings in an era of virtually zero growth. I've seen it called the "everything" bubble. It is fuelled by mad moneyprinting and/or so-called "accommodative" policy (loaning money at near or below-zero rates) in virtually every corner of the world. How can that possibly end well?</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAjC0m5fd5R_oO5u1VQvsjKUEhF7mNGsJF0LaY7XzDb0v5U2ErLET5Uhri46SDDCyNjIRk2P-Yau5MPWG7heq-OHqbzWpTJ8VmACVVcOifdGPUgM-aLaTXNFaoj9lUAtjPX5m1Zg/s1600/SPX+13+JUL+17.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="633" data-original-width="850" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAjC0m5fd5R_oO5u1VQvsjKUEhF7mNGsJF0LaY7XzDb0v5U2ErLET5Uhri46SDDCyNjIRk2P-Yau5MPWG7heq-OHqbzWpTJ8VmACVVcOifdGPUgM-aLaTXNFaoj9lUAtjPX5m1Zg/s400/SPX+13+JUL+17.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span aria-live="polite" class="fbPhotosPhotoCaption" data-ft="{"tn":"K"}" id="fbPhotoSnowliftCaption" style="color: #1d2129; display: inline; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 18px; outline: none; width: auto;" tabindex="0"><span class="hasCaption">As you can see, gold got a little ahead of itself in 2011, and took a breather from Sep 2011 through Dec 2015 (51 months). Gold is now running sprints again, and training for the next marathon. It is the favourite to win.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Keep in mind, the first chart presented shows the gold price divided by the price level of the S&P 500 index. You may or may not recall the fireworks, which were mostly set off between 2007 and 2011. As of right now, another launch is being prepared, and based on the intelligence I receive, this one may actually prove to be another lunar mission (along the lines of 1976-1980, but longer, stronger, higher and more enduring).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">We are preparing now for blastoff of the second and stronger stage, possibly as soon as the second half of 2017. </span></div>
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Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-13241619678238737512016-12-23T16:44:00.002-06:002016-12-23T16:54:47.333-06:00Alternative Fusion Power - Still Underfunded and At-Risk - Sees a Tenth Project Launched<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">23 December 2016</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">If you've been following my posts on fusion power, you'll know that I've been tracking nine alternative fusion reactor designs. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I do check the news semi-regularly to see what's new, and due to the fact that almost nobody anywhere is investing in fusion power research, there usually isn't much to be found. However, on today's search, I found good news. The US Department of Energy’s Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (Princeton was Dr. Einstein's old hangout) is now planning to move ahead with a <a href="http://www.zmescience.com/ecology/renewable-energy-ecology/us-fusion-reactor/" target="_blank">spherical tokamak design</a>, which, due to being shaped more like a cored apple than a doughnut, will be about half the volume of a tokamak (click <b><a href="http://www.zmescience.com/ecology/renewable-energy-ecology/us-fusion-reactor/" target="_blank">here</a></b> for link).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img alt="" class="size-large wp-image-60212" src="http://cdn.zmescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/test-celll_1024-1024x415.jpg" height="129" width="320" /></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Now, I suspect that Mr Trump plans to take us back to the stone age in science, in which case, this project could be at risk (thankfully, there are nine others). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span class="mw-headline"><span lang="EN" style="font-weight: normal;">Ten
Alternative fusion reactor designs and associated companies/sponsors</span></span>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN"><a href="http://www-internal.psfc.mit.edu/ldx/" target="_blank">Levitated Dipole Experiment</a><span id="goog_1626123991"></span><span id="goog_1626123992"></span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/"></a>
(MIT “plasma pinch”)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN">Compact Spherical</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN"> </span></span><span lang="EN"><a href="http://wiki.fusenet.eu/wiki/Tokamak" title="Tokamak"><span style="color: #5a3696;">Tokamak</span></a></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN"> </span></span><span lang="EN">-</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN"> </span></span><span lang="EN"><a href="http://www.tokamakenergy.co.uk/"><span style="color: #3366bb;">Tokamak
Energy Ltd.</span></a> - </span>spherical tokamaks + high-temperature
superconductors (see also “Spherical Tokamak” PPPL below)<span lang="EN"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN">§<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span lang="EN">Colliding beam reactor -</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN"> </span></span><span lang="EN"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tri_Alpha_Energy,_Inc." title="wikipedia:Tri Alpha Energy, Inc."><span style="color: #3366bb;">Tri Alpha
Energy</span></a> Ion beams - aneutronic fusion power.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polywell" title="wikipedia:Polywell"><span style="color: #3366bb;">Polywell</span></a></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN"> </span></span><span lang="EN">- EMC2 company<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN">Magnetized target reactor (acoustic
fusion) –</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN"> </span></span><span lang="EN"><a href="http://www.generalfusion.com/"><span style="color: #3366bb;">General
Fusion</span></a> (Richmond, British Columbia)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN">Dense Plasma Focus -</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN"> </span></span><span lang="EN"><a href="http://lawrencevilleplasmaphysics.com/"><span style="color: #3366bb;">LPP Fusion</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN">§<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span lang="EN"><a href="http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html"><span style="color: #3366bb;">Compact Fusion</span></a></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN"> </span></span><span lang="EN">- Lockheed Martin (Skunkworks) <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN">§<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span lang="EN"><a href="http://www.washington.edu/news/2015/06/02/uw-researchers-scaling-up-fusion-hopes-with-doe-grant/">Sheared
Flow Stabilized Z-Pinch</a> – <i>University
of Washington & Lawrence Livermore Laboratory</i> (added by L. Hunt)</span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN">§<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><span lang="EN"><a href="http://www.zmescience.com/ecology/renewable-energy-ecology/us-fusion-reactor/">Spherical Tokamak</a> - </span>US Department of Energy’s
Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) – announced 16 August 2016
(added by L. Hunt)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I do favour government funding of fusion power research, as the trillion dollar plus investment is and will remain a barrier to entry in the marketplace, and basic science is one of the areas where government spending has often produced positive results (the government did bring us the internet and almost every basic advance in computer science, not to mention the space program, multiple lifesaving medical treatments, etc.). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">On the private side, Lockheed Martin has a great little compact fusion reactor design, but I don't think it's a funding priority there either --- they've published nothing since 2014. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So, commendations to the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL)! And maybe it's time to cut the whole <a href="http://www.iter.org/" target="_blank">ITER</a> project and rethink the design of that white elephant (it will be useful for research, but it WILL NOT ever be a prototype for a commercial fusion reactor)..........</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">_</span>Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-92184335257409982632016-10-27T22:14:00.001-05:002016-10-27T22:15:55.875-05:00Something Happened in 2001 --- and Nothing Shows It More Clearly Than the Gold Price<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">27 October 2016</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Gold attained its intraday high price of $887.50 USD per troy ounce in early 1980, after climbing from its (fixed) 1934-1968 level of $35 in a steady and exponential march. From 1980 - 2001, the gold price didn't really do much, except mostly fall. I hope that even to the naive observer, however, it is evident that something changed in 2001 --- and that was central bank experimentation with money printing and ultralow interest rates that is unprecedented in all of human history (combined with a series of out and out crashes --- not yet done --- that have wracked the inflated markets and made mainstream investors increasingly insecure). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">After peaking in September 2011, the gold price fell until December 2015 --- and this occurred because market participants believed the moneyprinting and low/negative rates were working to boost the economy. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">What is now becoming apparent is that moneyprinting and low rates actually create a trickle-up economy, in which funds flow to those who can afford to borrow and leverage up at low rates and speculate. Investment in truly productive projects has remained neglected --- almost stagnant --- while speculators occupy themselves with paper gains, stock buybacks, leveraged buyouts encumbered with unpayable debt, showpiece projects (Trump Towers, anyone?) and other unproductive or even destructive misallocations of capital. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This post is just meant to be a heads-up. The moneyprinting and free money don't actually make the economy grow... they just take it off-track in unproductive dead-ends. If I'm right, then, from here, gold is headed much, much higher than its 2011 peak of $1934 USD. Decide for yourself. I've made my decision....</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">_</span>Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-10189132249225487072016-10-15T13:36:00.001-05:002016-11-23T11:37:21.142-06:00ITER Is NOT the Only News in Fusion Power Development --- There Are Nine Alternative Projects That Are Equally or More Interesting! <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">15 October 2016</span><br />
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<span style="color: #1d2129;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I fully support the development of the <a href="http://www.iter.org/" target="_blank">ITER </a>(International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) </span></span><span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Project</span><span style="color: #1d2129;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">, located in </span></span><span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Saint-Paul-lès-Durance, France</span><span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">. We have spent almost nothing on fusion power development over the past half-century (the US, which is the largest player, has invested only about a billion dollars a year, and presently spends less than that annually). </span><br />
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<a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/sites/default/files/styles/article_main_large/public/images/si-ITER2015.jpg?itok=EZ5gg9dB" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://www.sciencemag.org/sites/default/files/styles/article_main_large/public/images/si-ITER2015.jpg?itok=EZ5gg9dB" style="-webkit-user-select: none;" width="400" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #1d2129;">By way of contrast, over the past decade, there has been a $50 billion per year investment in hydrocarbon fracking in the US alone. I maintain that had we put that one trillion dollars into fusion power development, we'd have working prototypes today. </span></span></span><br />
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<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/iter-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-fusion-reactor-revolutionize-energy-2016-10" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="167" src="https://external-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=AQDkTbNIZYVR-sDC&w=487&h=255&url=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic4.businessinsider.com%2Fimage%2F57fe9fd78a4565a42dce331e-1190-625%2Fcountries-around-the-world-are-pouring-billions-of-dollars-into-frances-revolutionary-nuclear-fusion-reactor.jpg&cfs=1&upscale=1" style="-webkit-user-select: none;" width="320" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #1d2129;">Watching <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/iter-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-fusion-reactor-revolutionize-energy-2016-10" target="_blank">this recent (well-produced) video</a> reinforces my conviction that almost nobody understands the unique challenges and opportunities posed by the task of figuring out how to contain fusion power and make it work on earth. This video offers the "standard line" on the ITER reactor, which is the world's most expensive and most advanced fusion power project --- but almost certainly not the "best." </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #1d2129;">As pointed out here, ITER is presently projected to cost $20 billion (it was origina</span><span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #1d2129; display: inline;">lly priced at $5 billion), and let's round that up to $50 billion, just to allow some leeway. As noted, that amount is only one year's investment in hydrocarbon fracking in the United States alone. In other words, this project is not an over-priced albatross (I think it is "too big," but that is a separate problem). </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #1d2129; display: inline;">Rather, the fact that ITER is now 12 years behind schedule is simply another piece of evidence that our species is extraordinarily unfocused in its efforts to develop the only technological strategy that offers hope of powering the electrical grid for, say, 10 billion humans around the world, 10 or 20 years or so down the road from now. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #1d2129; display: inline;">The <a href="https://www.euro-fusion.org/jet/" target="_blank">Joint European Torus</a> (JET) experiment in the UK is another large-scale, "mainstream" fusion project. It was originally developed by <i>EUROfusion</i> as a prototype for the larger ITER project. In turn, a DEMO project is intended to provide power to the grid --- though far in the future. </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #1d2129; display: inline;">I have so far identified nine much smaller, alternative fusion power development programs now underway in the world (one of them, General Fusion, based in Richmond, British Columbia, in Canada). </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #1d2129; display: inline;">I argue that ITER should be much more richly funded than it is, as should the <a href="http://wiki.fusenet.eu/wiki/Alternative_fusion_devices" target="_blank">nine alternative ("small") fusion power projects currently under development </a>(see below):</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> <a href="http://www-internal.psfc.mit.edu/ldx/" target="_blank">Levitated Dipole Experiment</a> (MIT “plasma pinch”)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> <a href="http://motherboard.vice.com/read/an-alternative-approach-to-nuclear-fusion-think-smaller" target="_blank">Compact Spherical Tokamak</a> - <a href="http://www.tokamakenergy.co.uk/" target="_blank">Tokamak Energy Ltd</a>. - spherical tokamaks + high-temperature
superconductors<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> <a href="http://www.trialphaenergy.com/" target="_blank">Colliding beam reactor</a> - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tri_Alpha_Energy,_Inc." target="_blank">Tri Alpha Energy</a> Ion beams - aneutronic fusion power.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polywell" target="_blank">Polywell</a>
- EMC2 company<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> Magnetized
target reactor (acoustic fusion) – <a href="http://www.generalfusion.com/" target="_blank">General Fusion</a> (Richmond, British Columbia)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Plasma Focus - <a href="http://lppfusion.com/" target="_blank">LPP Fusion</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> <a href="http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html" target="_blank">Compact Fusion</a> - Lockheed Martin (Skunkworks)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> <a href="https://www.aa.washington.edu/research/ZaP" target="_blank">Sheared Flow Stabilized Z-Pinch</a> – University of Washington & Lawrence Livermore
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> <a href="https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/02/24/fusi-f24.html" target="_blank">Wendelstein 7-X</a> - <a href="https://www.ipp.mpg.de/w7x" target="_blank">Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics</a> (IPP) in Greifswald, Germany (added by L. Hunt: one of 11 operational <a href="http://wiki.fusenet.eu/wiki/Stellarator" target="_blank">stellarators</a>, two more planned)</span><br />
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I have provided links to each of the nine projects I have identified (seven are from </span><a href="http://wiki.fusenet.eu/wiki/Alternative_fusion_devices" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">Fusion Wiki</a><span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">). I encourage the interested reader to explore all nine. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #1d2129; display: inline;">For the super-motivated reader, check out the <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/nuclear-fusion-power.aspx" target="_blank">World Nuclear Association progress review</a>, or examine this very exhaustive (US-focused) summary of fusion projects and resources from the US Department of Energy: <a href="http://science.energy.gov/fes/research/fusion-institutions" target="_blank">Fusion Energy Sciences Research Summary</a></span></span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSuLWy-i0mcZFPR5iY8rkHt3mSkxZseuOGgx3oB1yTtQnNEF31fNkDwI0z5l5lohFxvBk7AcPCkIPwVVD3cOB7E5Ti5FGDGgnJUMnfmv7LUuf4KAetqM5MiMK4q25xHhiLM_ssyA/s1600/TriAlpha_Closer_View_of_the_C-2U_Device.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSuLWy-i0mcZFPR5iY8rkHt3mSkxZseuOGgx3oB1yTtQnNEF31fNkDwI0z5l5lohFxvBk7AcPCkIPwVVD3cOB7E5Ti5FGDGgnJUMnfmv7LUuf4KAetqM5MiMK4q25xHhiLM_ssyA/s400/TriAlpha_Closer_View_of_the_C-2U_Device.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #1d2129; display: inline;">In my view, fusion power development is so important that all of these projects should be running ahead of schedule, rather than running behind, and certainly not lying dormant (as some are). Fusion is the future, and for some reason, we're not getting ourselves ready for it......</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #1d2129; display: inline; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Recently, I came across a great article by one of the technology leads at ITER, which offers the best overview I've seen so far about what fusion power is and why it is the answer to the power needs of a world soon to support ten billion humans (I think that's too many people, but it's a fact I accept). </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The author --- <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Llewellyn_Smith" target="_blank">Sir Christopher Llewellyn Smith</a> - understands the theoretical context of fusion power in a way that no one else does. Here's a little </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Llewellyn_Smith" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">information about him, from Wikipedia</a><span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Perhaps most importantly, Dr. Smith points out that the release of energy from a fusion reaction is <a href="http://elementy.ru/nauchno-populyarnaya_biblioteka/430851/The_Path_to_Fusion_Power?_utl_t=fb" target="_blank">ten million times greater</a> than from a typical chemical reaction (both hydrocarbon and solar technologies produce power through chemical reactions). It is also 3-4 times more energetic than <a href="http://www.diffen.com/difference/Nuclear_Fission_vs_Nuclear_Fusion" target="_blank">fission power</a>, and dramatically safer (down the road, <a href="http://focusfusion.org/index.php/site/article/deuterium_tritium_vs_hydrogen_boron/" target="_blank">boronic (or aneutronic) fusion</a> produces an electrical current without emitting neutrons or any other dangerous radiation, promising perhaps the ultimate power source for life on earth).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjOW4LZsMHnE7sKvW_i4C-jCtpV1gja3wkam6g7EWSoDxs5MeCcewojtTvJ3pwlgWBl_VmzlhqHO6c7EzxTUunLQA5ivJbiXBD6ECpU9QxeBxuyKnb813KFuqVYKJVOjH63QAmgw/s1600/Fusion+Conclusions.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjOW4LZsMHnE7sKvW_i4C-jCtpV1gja3wkam6g7EWSoDxs5MeCcewojtTvJ3pwlgWBl_VmzlhqHO6c7EzxTUunLQA5ivJbiXBD6ECpU9QxeBxuyKnb813KFuqVYKJVOjH63QAmgw/s400/Fusion+Conclusions.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I suggest a simple strategy going forward.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #1d2129;">Fusion power is too important NOT to develop. Every scientifically-defensible fusion power project currently under development should be richly and fully funded, which will enable us to learn rapidly what works and what doesn't work. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I'm a liberal libertarian in political philosophy, which, in brief, means that I see a role for government primarily in infrastructure development (with corresponding limited interference in markets). There is no infrastructure more important for humans at this time than fusion power. Thus, I am wide open to whatever public-private partnerships can be struck (and I'm totally fine if some bold investor or group of investors is richly rewarded for making an early investment in fusion technology --- this is why capi</span><span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">talism works and nothing else does). </span><br />
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<span style="color: #1d2129; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I've written before that perhaps only a half century down the road, we will have advanced sufficiently in bringing forward fusion power, artificial intelligence and robotics that we will be forced into a post-capitalist society (and I write this as an avid proponent of capitalism as the only viable economic system for the management of scarcity). But with the moving forward of these three technologies, we will see the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance:_The_Future_Is_Better_Than_You_Think" target="_blank">end of scarcity</a>, and thus the need for the development of a new <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-scarcity_economy" target="_blank">post-scarcity economics</a>. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">We'd be wise to begin thinking about it now, but also to magnify greatly our efforts to get ourselves there! </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>23 November 2016: </b>Here is a link to a very friendly video on fusion power that is easy to follow and exceptionally well-produced. This video will also help you understand why we may end up mining helium on the moon: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZsaaturR6E" target="_blank"><b>Fusion Energy Explained – Future or Failure</b></a>.</span><br />
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Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-77868325827094762112016-10-15T12:45:00.000-05:002016-10-15T20:18:03.034-05:00Ten Septillion Planets, Moons and Smaller Bodies in the Universe Could Support Life<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">15 October 2016</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I've been counting galaxies for quite a few years now, as the scientific consensus on how many of them there are keeps expanding. Only two to three years ago, the official estimate was that there are about 100 billion galaxies in the universe. Then a new Hubble image revealed more galaxies than we expected, bumping the estimate up to somewhere between 100 billion and a trillion. Remember, that's galaxies we're talking about, not stars. Now <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2016/10/14/there_are_two_trillion_galaxies_in_the_universe.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_fb_bot" target="_blank">the estimate has been bumped up again</a> --- to two trillion galaxies.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As we know, our galaxy has 300 billion stars in it or so, and our neighbour, Andromeda, with which a merger is planned in about 5 billion years, has 600 billion stars. One of the new factors in this estimate is that there are going to be relatively more galaxies with only, say, a billion stars in them. On the other side, some are also far larger than Andromeda... an elliptical galaxy can hold 100 trillion stars (making it 300 times larger than our galaxy).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So, if you multiply the number of galaxies times the average number of stars in a galaxy, you certainly get a really big number. One generally accepted rule is that the average galaxy may hold 100 billion stars (only 1/3 the size of our galaxy). Then, if you multiply 2 trillion times 100 billion, you get roughly 200 sextillion, which is 2 followed by 23 zeroes.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtl1FAW5JtaSQUyFk2YLIpCmc5P6dSmLSYppcRvQW6kI1CjoJHxyZB6sWrvQSZTRW4tpPAqNwVRALDyS1OwH5IDNWeE5oi1v7WBKBatKU-EMrPkYgJA3CzabZUB57PL0pJUA_pIQ/s1600/Avatar-Flight-of-Passage-Concept-Art.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="165" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtl1FAW5JtaSQUyFk2YLIpCmc5P6dSmLSYppcRvQW6kI1CjoJHxyZB6sWrvQSZTRW4tpPAqNwVRALDyS1OwH5IDNWeE5oi1v7WBKBatKU-EMrPkYgJA3CzabZUB57PL0pJUA_pIQ/s400/Avatar-Flight-of-Passage-Concept-Art.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Now the most interesting question in my view is whether there is life in the universe. We now believe that almost all stars have planets, and let's be conservative, and give them 5 planets each. That yields 1 septillion planets, or 1 followed by 24 zeroes. Our planet happens to have life on it... and we haven't ruled out that some planetary moons, asteroids and comets --- of which there are many --- may also support life. So let's multiply the number of planets times 10, to get 10 septillion bodies that could possibly support life (that is 1 followed by 25 zeroes).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In summary, all we really know is that there are a lot of places where life could possibly exist. We do rule out galactic centres. Not only are they crowded, but they are filled with dense radiation that almost certainly will make life impossible. Also, supernovas emit massive amounts of radiation, sufficient to eliminate life on nearby planets or moons, so you have to factor that in (our planet is at risk from Betelgeuse, which is familiar to us as Orion's right shoulder).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So you mostly have to consider the galactic suburbs to identify areas that could support life, and areas of lower stellar density are probably going to be friendlier... which tells us that moons or planets supporting life may not be that close to each other. Still, bottom line, everything we're learning about the universe tells us that we're very unlikely to be alone... It's just that we're also very unlikely to be near to other stars that also support life! I personally favour keeping our very imperfect species alive, and that does increase the chances that we may find other life forms.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Now there is also the question of whether the advanced life forms are friendly or not. On that question, I have no answer. We're not necessarily that friendly ourselves! However, regardless of their threat level, it's probably still to our advantage to find them first. Once that has happened, we'll most likely have at least several millennia, and very likely a few million years, to figure out what to do about it!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As an aside, the classic text, </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/275567.Intelligent_Life_in_the_Universe" target="_blank">Intelligent Life in the Universe</a>, </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">by Carl Sagan and I. S. Shklovskii, remains the authoritative reference on the topic of life in the universe, despite its seeing its 50th anniversary of publication (1966) this year! (Thanks to Dr. Jon Culbertson for providing a tutorial in this text at <a href="http://ncf.edu/Welcome" target="_blank">New College of Florida</a> in 1969). </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">_</span>Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-51873644675945755042016-03-07T13:26:00.000-06:002016-05-28T10:47:05.749-05:00MY LIBERAL LIBERTARIAN VIEW OF THE WORLD<div style="color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.32px; margin-bottom: 6px;">
<span style="line-height: 19.32px;">7 March 2016</span></div>
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A couple of months ago, I took an online political quiz that classed me as a “liberal libertarian,” a phrase I had not previously heard, possibly because I'm pretty sure there are very, very few of us (most prominent libertarians are socially conservative, and I'm not). As a consequence of my way of understanding the world, on political issues, I both agree and disagree with almost all, if not all, of my friends, on one major point or another. Fortunately, and very much like me, my friends are for the most part a tolerant and independent-thinking lot. Nobody has unfriended me for my outlying political views – to my knowledge, at least.<br />
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The above said, there are real-world politicians with whom I am considerably more than 50% in accord, and at the top of my list would be such names as, in Canada, Tommy Douglas (by chance a fiscally conservative socialist; probably my ultimate political hero) and Paul Martin (a fiscally conservative political liberal who advocated and ran balanced budgets), and, in the US, Ron Paul and David Stockman (both somewhat socially conservative libertarians). Internationally, I am very much in accord with the thinking of Muhammad Yunus and Hernando DeSoto, though neither is a politician, per se.<br />
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Those I almost never agree with include such diverse persons as Donald Trump on the right (no wonder he keeps failing at business, except during episodes of “bubble” economics), Paul Krugman on the left (who invariably favours more intervention in markets when less is almost always what is needed), and most all extremists of the right and left, from the National Front and the Ku Klux Klan on the right to the Communist Party and the kleptocracies of Venezuela, Zimbabwe and Greece on the left. Oh yeah, I probably have many points of difference with other liberal libertarians.... That's how it goes, isn't it!</div>
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In brief, what do I believe?</div>
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1. Building and maintaining social and physical infrastructure is the first priority of government (and thus, government is legitimate, in that it acts as an arbiter of competing social interests). This is a focus that is distinct from regulation (governments use regulation to create jobs for bureaucrats, so it always gets overdone everywhere, as bureaucrats seem to exist to create more jobs for other bureaucrats). I also look askance on efforts of government to intervene in most aspects of public affairs, particularly in markets and in establishing or maintaining social norms. I do consider the rule of law to be a legitimate component of infrastructure, based on the principle that all human lives are equally valuable, and also that private property and free trade are the ultimate foundations of social security and financial health.<br />
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2. Governments should spend less than they take in – always. The balance should be set aside as a fiscal hedge for unanticipated future events. This also means that government spending is not useful as so-called “fiscal stimulus” (it fails in that respect every single time). However, of the funds that governments spend, the priority should continue to be #1 above – social and physical infrastructure, which means that no one is without food, shelter, the protection of the law, and access to equitable health and educational services.<br />
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3. Science is the ultimate arbiter of material truth. Even if science were to come at odds with religion, I would choose science 100% of the time, though this has not stopped me from being religious. There is a very large domain on which science by necessity must reserve judgement, from the randomness of the quantum realm, to the unknowableness of first causes (or, if you prefer, the mysteries of acausaility). Science leaves ample room for the practice of religious faith, in my view. I am a universalist in the sense that whatever creator we all respect or worship in our diverse ways, that must be the very same creator. Thus I strive to be respectful of religious views different than my own, and I shun religious teachings that divide versus unite (which is not to say that I accept religion as a justification for any kind of political oppression).<br />
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4. Following from #4 (based on the principle that science yields the best approximation of the truth that is achievable), global warming is real, and the current spike in global mean temperature is caused by human activity. Both climate change and human population growth threaten ecological diversity and the carrying capacity of our planet. However, secondary to this, solutions to ecological problems have to happen in the real world. I'm impatient with my friends who want to tax carbon emissions (that just employs more bureaucrats), shut down pipelines, or otherwise constrain the carbon infrastructure, when we presently require carbon energy to keep our power grid running. Additionally, I'm not “against” renewable power, I just don't regard it as a replacement for carbon. As I'm sure all of my friends know, the fusion scientists are telling us that they're ready to build prototype fusion power generators now. We have spent enough on fracking in North America in the past decade alone to have gotten many competing fusion prototypes up and running by now (honestly, we could have done this – albeit more primitively – 2 or 3 decades ago if we’d been properly focused). I favour continuing to use carbon energy until we get fusion going – it’s just that we need to light a fire under our fusion power development program. As an aside, what an opportunity it would be for Canada to choose to be the global leader in fusion power development. (My interest in space exploration is entirely apart from the issue of our threatened global habitat, except that having non-Earth settlements is a safeguard against catastrophes in a universe that is catastrophic in its very nature.)<br />
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<span style="line-height: 19.32px;">5. I could go on from here. For example, I think problems in public morality (for example, the “right to life” issue, which is an example of a social problem that lacks any kind of “ideal” solution) should be settled by a “marketplace” of private donations, outside the government sphere. Thus, the best ideas could compete for the most charitable donations. In my ideal world, government would be small enough that the private charitable sphere could be much larger and healthier than it is today. Regarding taxation, I favour a simple flat tax. Everybody would pay 17% (or so) on all income, from the poorest to the richest, and there would be no deductions or complicated tax codes (though there would be social infrastructure to safeguard the poorest). Government revenue collection departments could thus be all but shut down. I regard foreign military intervention as the most likely to fail of all international actions we can take, and thus reserve military deployment primarily for cooperative and multimodal international responses to the systemic victimization of vulnerable peoples, particularly in situations of lawlessness. I favour keeping other countries liveable over bringing people here (though that is a last resort for humanitarian reasons), and observe that most of the world’s current hotspots are unstable precisely because of excessive past military interventions (including weapons trading). Specifically, we had no business attempting to undermine the Russians in Afghanistan, Saddam in Iraq, Qaddafi in Libya, Assad in Syria, and so on. I would terminate the war on drugs immediately and fund addiction treatment as a component of social infrastructure. Nor would I populate the prisons with persons involved in the drug trade (which would cease to be profitable with decriminalization). </span><br />
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<span style="line-height: 19.32px;">I also believe that good infrastructure has many secondary economic advantages. For example, in Canada, if the TransCanada Highway were divided (dual) coast to coast, we’d be dealing with lower accident and injury rates. I would also prioritize the completion of a real coast-to-coast TransCanada Trail, suitable for walking, skiing and biking every foot of the way across the country. Not only would that boost tourism, it would strengthen Canada’s relations with the people of other nations. With that, I’ll leave it here, for now….</span><br />
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Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-30791581400752818772016-01-02T13:17:00.003-06:002016-03-07T13:27:12.050-06:00LPP Fusion Is Making Rapid Advances in Fusion Power Technology<div style="font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.32px; margin-bottom: 6px;">
Based on a technological concept originating in 1964, <a href="http://lppfusion.com/" target="_blank">LPP Fusion</a> is developing a <a href="http://lppfusion.com/fusion-power/dpf-device/" target="_blank">dense plasma focus (DPF) device</a>. No external magnetic field is required, since the method generates its own magnetic field --- making it potentially much more compact than mainstream fusion technologies.</div>
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For a few millionths of a second, an intense current flows from an outer to an inner electrode through a low pressure gas. This current starts to heat the gas, creating an intense magnetic field. This in turn generates a super-dense plasma, condensed into a tiny ball only a few thousandths of an inch across called a plasmoid. Again, all of this happens without being guided by external magnets.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSg9UNLltiAU0eYMpSBukQyDH8fPvffqUz7RGcO0ZNlGhAL3VEZOEUDRLAZ8m140bZkhuvjlTh7irQo-UwDgusWYAxZuB7M2D2szL3863TO6fv6pCq6On3V-zvxSRH8y8cVNvlbw/s1600/dense-plasma-fusion-device+02.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSg9UNLltiAU0eYMpSBukQyDH8fPvffqUz7RGcO0ZNlGhAL3VEZOEUDRLAZ8m140bZkhuvjlTh7irQo-UwDgusWYAxZuB7M2D2szL3863TO6fv6pCq6On3V-zvxSRH8y8cVNvlbw/s200/dense-plasma-fusion-device+02.jpg" width="200" /></a>The magnetic fields very quickly collapse, and these changing magnetic fields induce an electric field which causes a beam of electrons to flow in one direction and a beam of ions – atoms that have lost electrons – in the other. The electron beam heats the plasmoid to extremely high temperatures, the equivalent of billions of degrees C (particles energies of 100 keV or more). (This temperature level is orders of magnitude hotter than the core of the sun, and many times hotter than alternative fusion power technologies.)</div>
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This technology can in principle be used to produce X-rays or to generate fusion power.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggZdxJfFDhf_TLNcuLYTWepoLh_oi1u4dgHoCpxbEjYAKEB-1SkDpZwM8kBHQfbGobH0lRHM-owKWov0v2zXtUJX0km_VApAPd7VjlMqD_fSMxUJ49_hrFOkcHkK6KPKdPa5VzAA/s1600/dense-plasma-fusion-device+05.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggZdxJfFDhf_TLNcuLYTWepoLh_oi1u4dgHoCpxbEjYAKEB-1SkDpZwM8kBHQfbGobH0lRHM-owKWov0v2zXtUJX0km_VApAPd7VjlMqD_fSMxUJ49_hrFOkcHkK6KPKdPa5VzAA/s200/dense-plasma-fusion-device+05.jpg" width="200" /></a>To create fusion power, energy can be transferred from the electrons to the ions using the magnetic field effect. Collisions of the ions with each other cause fusion reactions, which add more energy to the plasmoid. Thus, in the end, the ion beam contains more energy than was input by the original electric current. (The energy of the electron beam is dissipated inside the plasmoid to heat it.) This happens even though the plasmoid only lasts 10 ns (billionths of a second) or so, because of the very high density in the plasmoid, which is close to solid density. This level of density makes nuclear collisions (and thus fusion reactions) very likely, and they occur extremely rapidly.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4qrTKVp0bI4AxZNLgC-7F17QAbGM0K_UKKyFRWRkH4nG4Rp2a_VcHNfCqII_6D8J13kpmpeEWDTcv6zHKgOYAk5IZ6yJcdy6H-dSYE7LPPQfaa6R6_dGSZU_NrEbejpQTynKEug/s1600/dense-plasma-fusion-device.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4qrTKVp0bI4AxZNLgC-7F17QAbGM0K_UKKyFRWRkH4nG4Rp2a_VcHNfCqII_6D8J13kpmpeEWDTcv6zHKgOYAk5IZ6yJcdy6H-dSYE7LPPQfaa6R6_dGSZU_NrEbejpQTynKEug/s200/dense-plasma-fusion-device.jpg" width="200" /></a>The ion beam of charged particles is then directed into a decelerator which acts like a particle accelerator in reverse. Instead of using electricity to accelerate charged particles, they decelerate charged particles and generate electricity. Some of this electricity is recycled to power the next fusion pulse while the excess (net) energy is the electricity produced by the fusion power plant. Some of the X-ray energy produced by the plasmoid can also be directly converted to electricity through the photoelectric effect (as occurs in solar panels).</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFGLXfvNp9D1vpDw5L74rHKk6Z8bLFxtV-MO-xc8BtQnyNeAaZJXgZ_lC2S_2QrimVAKvp2GG2SakbgfZlpK7k9aP2gpOr9v9hB7MUnKLKoFY-g0hPek-tbq1RKQAYMfkgKI6d6Q/s1600/dense-plasma-fusion-device+04.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFGLXfvNp9D1vpDw5L74rHKk6Z8bLFxtV-MO-xc8BtQnyNeAaZJXgZ_lC2S_2QrimVAKvp2GG2SakbgfZlpK7k9aP2gpOr9v9hB7MUnKLKoFY-g0hPek-tbq1RKQAYMfkgKI6d6Q/s200/dense-plasma-fusion-device+04.jpg" width="200" /></a>An interesting aspect of the DPF design is that it generates sufficient temperature levels to power fusion reactions in elements with higher molecular weights, which in turn holds out the promise of a shortcut to boronic fusion, the "holy grail" of fusion power research, as this particular fusion reaction generates electricity rather than neutron radiation... and electricity is what we actually want!</div>
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Another interesting feature here is that LPP Fusion is an incorporated company (in this sense, similar to <a href="http://www.generalfusion.com/" target="_blank">General Fusion</a>), and thus they accept investments from private contributors. Again, this is all "micro" scale when compared, say, to Exxon Mobil or Conoco Phillips, but at least a base has been established to which further investments can be added.....</div>
Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-1198833789686666202015-01-12T11:43:00.000-06:002016-03-07T13:28:03.124-06:00Fed Bubble #3 Will Hit Canada Harder Than Bubbles #1 and #2<br />
22 & 23 December 2014, 12 & 13 January 2015<br />
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">This post refers to a well-researched article published yesterday by <a href="http://soberlook.com/" target="_blank">Sober Look</a>: </span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><a href="http://soberlook.com/2014/12/if-energy-prices-remain-near-current.html" target="_blank">If energy prices remain near current levels, Canada's economy is in trouble</a>.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">Collapsing energy prices will be the story of the year for Canada, due to our high costs of production in the oil sands sector. In the US, the primary impact of low oil prices will be on the over-leveraged, capital-intensive and high-turnover shale fracking sector. In Canada, the oil sands operations are much better-funded, but they're not economic at these prices, and we have fracking going on here, too. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfguktoGHfXamxiepqNwhyjwNVvjt27GThYplH96kpetJ6Rrg9tUJ7VE1E3F4WC9Os8yniAGa2kawyfPyd2_dmP7ZjY1vl8x00GN57Zh0LiX_4_8LCs07Phi7Er3aBWIMxMMdo7g/s1600/WTIC+1999-2014.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfguktoGHfXamxiepqNwhyjwNVvjt27GThYplH96kpetJ6Rrg9tUJ7VE1E3F4WC9Os8yniAGa2kawyfPyd2_dmP7ZjY1vl8x00GN57Zh0LiX_4_8LCs07Phi7Er3aBWIMxMMdo7g/s1600/WTIC+1999-2014.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">But the real Canadian story is that we have so far entirely missed the US real estate correction (due to riding the commodity boom), but the turndown in oil prices is going to hit Canada's real estate market very hard. </span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">While our energy sector is much less leveraged than in the US, our housing sector is clearly vulnerable. Our household debt load has doubled as a percentage of income since 1990. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglgRFYzUK5ZlhXsvh5oqZMmIdQmi6GM4tWPpGXCrHLMQZ5m_h6gMOvhJcERGvMbuK6QcnOrMZ11WZA6k_psB-a6ArUhHRWDEeL6UWlNVGUsHcSDUn1MK1oC3E4LU8mRPn_eec3eQ/s1600/credit+to+disposabel+income+canada.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglgRFYzUK5ZlhXsvh5oqZMmIdQmi6GM4tWPpGXCrHLMQZ5m_h6gMOvhJcERGvMbuK6QcnOrMZ11WZA6k_psB-a6ArUhHRWDEeL6UWlNVGUsHcSDUn1MK1oC3E4LU8mRPn_eec3eQ/s1600/credit+to+disposabel+income+canada.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">Canadians are now also borrowing more than Americans, which would not be a good sign at the best of times:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhni32nHytOPb6m_Zk3ZRPeXQHA6Uo09Ka203bwi8VZ4OEgXYIe1icQa_u4TSDwxubzItkbxClgRLsUKZLkbsDc_7LxxYVgQEUse0tBhzv97y7UFQlrK51pB_1oGayKbmMbzmomyA/s1600/Canada-US-household-debt.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhni32nHytOPb6m_Zk3ZRPeXQHA6Uo09Ka203bwi8VZ4OEgXYIe1icQa_u4TSDwxubzItkbxClgRLsUKZLkbsDc_7LxxYVgQEUse0tBhzv97y7UFQlrK51pB_1oGayKbmMbzmomyA/s1600/Canada-US-household-debt.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">The collapsing oil price is thus emerging as Canada's biggest economic setback in decades (and the natural gas business is no better).</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_1gVIUw7owBvey6a2jYYf8ZILndzQ6oN4FOFShFt8H3lPvAZjOqeFthzMi-QCTugTqw9gQxp-pyXej1XikrnSYIOIArY4dMCR7voXCBhjLIHknqIgaCJIsZdpY8CuVj2qdwosDg/s1600/NATGAS+22+DEC+14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_1gVIUw7owBvey6a2jYYf8ZILndzQ6oN4FOFShFt8H3lPvAZjOqeFthzMi-QCTugTqw9gQxp-pyXej1XikrnSYIOIArY4dMCR7voXCBhjLIHknqIgaCJIsZdpY8CuVj2qdwosDg/s1600/NATGAS+22+DEC+14.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">By the way, one statistic really caught my eye. I have been commenting for as long as I can remember that we keep our local construction workers busy full-time without building any new houses. In fact, I have been on the mark. Canada has been involved in a renovation boom for years (see story and chart). Falling energy prices will impact that, too, and it's likely that real estate prices have already peaked, given how fast the rig count is dropping in the oil patch. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYlvOjsZP5xDdtKfVVJNHLxFzF1xH_0t_Kh487RtPdHEDhwC5wLh-nG2SrGiLJbMJskkdzf9lKUJ0D63LgzesmB86f9OeNKt9EQ6FJEn8kYd3hsHjEmf0glWRcyZt1rIhZUsbJdg/s1600/Renovations.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYlvOjsZP5xDdtKfVVJNHLxFzF1xH_0t_Kh487RtPdHEDhwC5wLh-nG2SrGiLJbMJskkdzf9lKUJ0D63LgzesmB86f9OeNKt9EQ6FJEn8kYd3hsHjEmf0glWRcyZt1rIhZUsbJdg/s1600/Renovations.PNG" width="310" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">Now... will this be the crisis that triggers a resurgence in gold? Well, Mr. al-Naimi just announced that the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-saudis-naimi-says-opec-will-not-cut-output-however-far-oil-falls-mees-2014-12" target="_blank">Saudis don't care if oil falls to $20/barrel</a>. They are obviously wishing to preserve market share, and they are fighting a battle they can win. </span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">Note that the Asians have been playing years ahead of us in stockpiling gold, as a hedge against bad debt and economic volatility. This trend has not reversed since 2011, when the chart below was created. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkIDn9s8kLey9hs9fdSdOZEqKOEqnQ4aXpXe0oEl6lkdbHd-Gn8Jz-DpYKrhBW5yYChsKJYzFIBHvCWFZgFsNj1CtDzo1lQGYvnQCN_LLFd57Q4_Uqjr1ONbei_TuNjPnKcU-PVw/s1600/Gold-Demand-East-West.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkIDn9s8kLey9hs9fdSdOZEqKOEqnQ4aXpXe0oEl6lkdbHd-Gn8Jz-DpYKrhBW5yYChsKJYzFIBHvCWFZgFsNj1CtDzo1lQGYvnQCN_LLFd57Q4_Uqjr1ONbei_TuNjPnKcU-PVw/s1600/Gold-Demand-East-West.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">Despite being embroiled in their own crisis situation, the Russians haven't stopped buying gold either. </span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgidhN0DfwaXP-wUh-3tOJ1rxSNSXhRHAz1XU3sn_SoNTQwMp8T99USl1lCyxs0mdfx6wXjFwZSdQwy3gWZDkiIiSfb1jUYJyfgFuY293sXJb-2YOGsghcZRREnpXThTSlrJO730Q/s1600/20141219_russgold_0.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="161" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgidhN0DfwaXP-wUh-3tOJ1rxSNSXhRHAz1XU3sn_SoNTQwMp8T99USl1lCyxs0mdfx6wXjFwZSdQwy3gWZDkiIiSfb1jUYJyfgFuY293sXJb-2YOGsghcZRREnpXThTSlrJO730Q/s1600/20141219_russgold_0.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span></span>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFfeHsjcofB1STV9QkIwtUYPOmaPYD2jwKyvis5nwLr-m2oaeMm_hgg5domiMubM1ECimU7aEuR8XaAaXOz2eDmye3HE169JX7_SIt7r-McaoX-sIC7xCeEdoA9cBu3lvX55YaLg/s1600/Russian+TSY+holdings+Dec+2014_0.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFfeHsjcofB1STV9QkIwtUYPOmaPYD2jwKyvis5nwLr-m2oaeMm_hgg5domiMubM1ECimU7aEuR8XaAaXOz2eDmye3HE169JX7_SIt7r-McaoX-sIC7xCeEdoA9cBu3lvX55YaLg/s1600/Russian+TSY+holdings+Dec+2014_0.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">The gold price will be leveraged if there is a credit crunch, and that appears to be what is shaping up. Once again, the crazy Americans have started another boom/bubble with the only real economic and employment growth of the past 7 years having occurred in only 5 shale fracking states. </span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">(A map of US shale-energy sites is presented below.)</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMn4sRmONANL1D-kEK0LfrLIj83fAKd3dYT08OMHcbvygbO6nKsdKMu9pgDN5bDuOdTFwTXQoichTDdoiZyN-7xpfx2dQ7FCMKF6_5yWnyR9zz_1iRaISB92lrDcqWoeHsIGwHow/s1600/shale-fracking-map+2014.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMn4sRmONANL1D-kEK0LfrLIj83fAKd3dYT08OMHcbvygbO6nKsdKMu9pgDN5bDuOdTFwTXQoichTDdoiZyN-7xpfx2dQ7FCMKF6_5yWnyR9zz_1iRaISB92lrDcqWoeHsIGwHow/s1600/shale-fracking-map+2014.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">And of course, everybody will pay for the Federal Reserve's latest experiment in bubble-blowing. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ2xjSAkjncb9zVWnii9uqADJ01cf5-ogo_96gCn5s1yuOWcx5DGvBsMPtKs2szaxbjDB7NU_Q7tE0xsaKwKf-j6wK9s_vEjTLLxXMwXlUSA1AFv-PrM-dBrZkM7LNhvdRIP23-Q/s1600/JobsShalevsNonShaleStates.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ2xjSAkjncb9zVWnii9uqADJ01cf5-ogo_96gCn5s1yuOWcx5DGvBsMPtKs2szaxbjDB7NU_Q7tE0xsaKwKf-j6wK9s_vEjTLLxXMwXlUSA1AFv-PrM-dBrZkM7LNhvdRIP23-Q/s1600/JobsShalevsNonShaleStates.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">What is the moral of this story</span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "tahoma" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">?</span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"> </span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">You can't print $4 trillion of funny money and not have consequences. The Fed brought on the so-called Great Recession in 2008 --- arguably a depression, which has so far been masked by moneyprinting and borrowing, but it has not gone away. </span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">The chart below shows that the Federal Reserve has recently accumulated $4 trillion in assets, purchased with printed money, that it cannot sell without creating irreparable market dislocations.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1YiXYDKgdxWPQSh4YQ32NjPHzzRBIBkikobidEbBPhBFwpQd9cs8kV0f2d1Gol4eFkajX8fgyBO1PqoT5Y7T5E2ubfwbQuxK5cKjJttnIRnD4y6l5ejs0-VRbuw1FBOZ6-ZPZfw/s1600/fedbal.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1YiXYDKgdxWPQSh4YQ32NjPHzzRBIBkikobidEbBPhBFwpQd9cs8kV0f2d1Gol4eFkajX8fgyBO1PqoT5Y7T5E2ubfwbQuxK5cKjJttnIRnD4y6l5ejs0-VRbuw1FBOZ6-ZPZfw/s1600/fedbal.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">Booms <i>are not</i> the same thing as economic growth. Rather, they are temporary and unsustainable events caused by economic central planners who believe that moneyprinting stimulates the economy. However, moneyprinting always results in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malinvestment" target="_blank">malinvestment</a>, which results in transient booms that ALWAYS go bust with real capital loss. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEo-DkOVJBvFEBdOCIebi7OTUAkV4lonYtAbtNq_aalBQLJcqWDDDSfcoH8vr18WceG6INoBG-NWvoAHzV-UjIL6iiYD2pyA6iSEzwdaKwUjHbXxAnJMmUtkFhguHcqPnyio25-w/s1600/US+oil+production+through+2014.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEo-DkOVJBvFEBdOCIebi7OTUAkV4lonYtAbtNq_aalBQLJcqWDDDSfcoH8vr18WceG6INoBG-NWvoAHzV-UjIL6iiYD2pyA6iSEzwdaKwUjHbXxAnJMmUtkFhguHcqPnyio25-w/s1600/US+oil+production+through+2014.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">Only saving, combined with capital investment for the long-term, produces growth, whereas stimulating borrowing and debt (the strategy used by economic central planners since 1987) always fails. </span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">As evidence of the current "boom" dynamics, Peter Schiff points out that the number of energy workers in the US has doubled in the past decade.... Let's call this the "stealth bubble," because most of us don't see its direct evidence. Mr. Schiff believes that other bubbles will be unmasked by the collapse of the US energy bubble: </span><a href="http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/could-energy-bust-trigger-qe4" style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;" target="_blank">Could An Energy Bust Trigger QE4?</a><br />
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">In the chart below, we see how decades of Federal Reserve bubble-blowing has decimated US breadwinner jobs.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEireiCMJhAsz4GPWHglOLI5ClBYn6IhffTWxpTrFhlb3703MYcpusoqP0dASbvPp1rRiuYhEZa7jCEWgZemoK5B3YGfE8750dkzyZQipuXOqZKdIE4YxnB5VFhUse1nrvWJ-IcGhw/s1600/breadwinner+jobs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEireiCMJhAsz4GPWHglOLI5ClBYn6IhffTWxpTrFhlb3703MYcpusoqP0dASbvPp1rRiuYhEZa7jCEWgZemoK5B3YGfE8750dkzyZQipuXOqZKdIE4YxnB5VFhUse1nrvWJ-IcGhw/s1600/breadwinner+jobs.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">If you want to know more about how Fed bubble #3 is unfolding (with the usual dire consequences), David Stockman has summarized it here: </span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><a href="http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-fracturing-energy-bubble-is-the-new-housing-crash/" target="_blank">The Fracturing Energy Bubble Is the New Housing Crash</a>. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">Here, we see that Federal reserve intervention has added to jobs only in the least stable and lowest wage sectors.</span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkyqUfETXLxLijZJqOlvATx1vZqoxnno7e5kV2lgsWhyphenhyphenrq9IF43j0LQ8kT7ENqe_sUn4ouRSO1FfiesrzJRjNG_OQRFA159SSITJIRwlfOrB3_vXi1xRmhavFDTRCNi1M8Si1u-A/s1600/part-time+job+growth.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkyqUfETXLxLijZJqOlvATx1vZqoxnno7e5kV2lgsWhyphenhyphenrq9IF43j0LQ8kT7ENqe_sUn4ouRSO1FfiesrzJRjNG_OQRFA159SSITJIRwlfOrB3_vXi1xRmhavFDTRCNi1M8Si1u-A/s1600/part-time+job+growth.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">And for a little more digging into risky energy finance, have a look at John Mauldin's recent review, here (though I disagree with his speculation that we've outgrown our need for jobs --- rather, Fed-induced malinvestment keeps killing them): <a href="http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/oil-employment-and-growth" target="_blank">Oil, Employment, and Growth</a>. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">Combined with the above charts, it is evident that the latest boom has led to the creation of only low wage jobs (above) and speculatively-financed carbon energy sector jobs in only 5 states (below).</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgrNPqm64AWeLFFhvaFCyI24l2sJC-Pm8tzp3XaY4B3eTYCTU1JFvjAaewjcKD0HnNlS4Imt7a0jbngq7CY-HRLC1uqeL4hA5zN6yK4KGh2hQV35RDM-WCsspUw3n0vcBMeCI9pw/s1600/oil-gas+employment.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgrNPqm64AWeLFFhvaFCyI24l2sJC-Pm8tzp3XaY4B3eTYCTU1JFvjAaewjcKD0HnNlS4Imt7a0jbngq7CY-HRLC1uqeL4hA5zN6yK4KGh2hQV35RDM-WCsspUw3n0vcBMeCI9pw/s1600/oil-gas+employment.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">It's also worth noting that there is presently $173 billion in US energy junk ("high yield") debt presently outstanding, and that it is dragging other debt markets down with it. This is the part of retrenchment with the greatest implications for the economy as a whole. Read more here: </span><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><a href="http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/12/15/u-s-shale-junk-debt-tumbles-amid-oil-crunch/" target="_blank">U.S. shale junk debt tumbles amid oil crunch</a>.</span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUAWjJhfYlHaK7_AoA8WSHk3HtSLtjSmgOmmRxIbQWJ24m2ghJfl75nNpFbp5AkI1C0wmo_2FXrEZAAGFTLIIK-Ju_dD1AgWE4evFNy9JWHJa5FHEX-W0sCqiLkKQwO4h7jP8beg/s1600/corporate-high-yield-price-600x336.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUAWjJhfYlHaK7_AoA8WSHk3HtSLtjSmgOmmRxIbQWJ24m2ghJfl75nNpFbp5AkI1C0wmo_2FXrEZAAGFTLIIK-Ju_dD1AgWE4evFNy9JWHJa5FHEX-W0sCqiLkKQwO4h7jP8beg/s1600/corporate-high-yield-price-600x336.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">As would be expected, the Canadian energy sector is under severe pressure as well, as summarized here: <a href="http://www.bnn.ca/News/2014/12/4/Energy-firms-hit-the-alarm-bells-as-dividend-cut-fears-grow-.aspx" target="_blank">Canadian energy firms hit the alarm bells</a>.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">The article linked at the start of this post is brief, full of charts, easy to read, and sobering. If I'm right, the energy sector will remain weak until the vulnerable players get taken out of the game. It is bad debt that will eventually force interest rates higher, </span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">whether our central planners wish for rates to go that way or not. </span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">On the upside for Canada, which has more mining companies than all other countries in the world combined, the fallout in bad debt from the collapse in the carbon energy sector could be counterbalanced to some degree by a resurgence in the gold mining sector, which will certainly benefit the region where I live (Northwest Ontario). </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKMqOfFAC7yOlZ0JaO84Ypve0vPXhy7vpby28zM1FHAk8smIJnn60xSh3SpiMXttJ94CmMZKsFHBx90mmjhPMlpR5XF24TJYMoy_vIcC6tUUa0isZ8s6deWo1CPgj9s1VHrXVBaA/s1600/Canada+Mining-Finance.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="186" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKMqOfFAC7yOlZ0JaO84Ypve0vPXhy7vpby28zM1FHAk8smIJnn60xSh3SpiMXttJ94CmMZKsFHBx90mmjhPMlpR5XF24TJYMoy_vIcC6tUUa0isZ8s6deWo1CPgj9s1VHrXVBaA/s1600/Canada+Mining-Finance.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">Keep watching, and look out! The oil price collapse seems quickly to be unmasking Fed bubble #3, as far as I can tell from here. </span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">When do the bubbles and booms stop? When the central planners stop intervening by printing money and "stimulating" borrowing and debt in the absence of viable targets for investment. </span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">Where <i>should </i>the investment be coming from? </span><br />
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">Savings, not borrowing. </span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">What <i>should </i>we be investing in, instead of booms and bubbles?</span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">Let the market decide --- without intervention by central planners.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><b>23 December 2014:</b> Here are some <i>US</i> oil statistics from Wikipedia. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">Oil products constitute 7.6% of exports and 14% of imports. The U.S. is the world's largest producer of oil and natural gas. It is the second-largest trading nation in the world as well as the world's second largest manufacturer, representing a fifth of the global manufacturing output. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">The United States is the second largest energy consumer in total use. The U.S. ranks seventh in energy consumption per-capita after Canada and a number of other countries. The majority of this energy is derived from fossil fuels: in 2005, it was estimated that 40% of the nation's energy came from petroleum, 23% from coal, and 23% from natural gas. Nuclear power supplied 8.4% and renewable energy supplied 6.8%, which was mainly from hydroelectric dams although other renewables are included.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">American dependence on oil imports grew from 24% in 1970 to 65% by the end of 2005. Transportation has the highest consumption rates, accounting for approximately 68.9% of the oil used in the United States in 2006, and 55% of oil use worldwide as documented in the Hirsch report.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">In 2013, the United States imported 2,808 million barrels of crude oil, compared to 3,377 million barrels in 2010. While the U.S. is the largest importer of fuel, the Wall Street Journal reported in 2011 that the country was about to become a net fuel exporter for the first time in 62 years. The paper reported expectations that this would continue until 2020. In fact, petroleum was the major export from the country by 2011.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">For some Canadian petroleum statistics, please <b><a href="http://www.capp.ca/library/statistics/basic" target="_blank">click here</a></b>. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><b>12-13 January 2015:</b> <a href="http://oilprice.com/Interviews/The-Real-Cause-Of-Low-Oil-Prices-Interview-With-Arthur-Berman.html" target="_blank">Arthur Berman</a> offers an insider's view on the economics of shale oil. He clarifies that the real breakeven cost in shale oil is $85, and that a $90 crude oil price is needed to make shale investable. A very strong argument can be made that shale investment "happened too soon" due to central bank intervention and bubble creation. Mr. Berman's article is <a href="http://oilprice.com/Interviews/The-Real-Cause-Of-Low-Oil-Prices-Interview-With-Arthur-Berman.html" target="_blank">here</a>. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-29/this-era-of-lowcost-oil-is-different" target="_blank">Mohamed El-Erian</a> explains why "this time is different" <a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-29/this-era-of-lowcost-oil-is-different" target="_blank">here</a>. To be honest, central bank intervention always makes <i>everything</i> different... and worse. Remember: <i>a boom is not growth</i>. It's that simple. Booms are driven by debt and speculation, whereas growth is driven by redeployment of savings and long-term consideration of investment returns under all circumstances.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.3199996948242px;"><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-oil-fall-could-lead-to-capex-collapse-doublelines-gundlach-2015-1?pundits_only=1&comments_page=1#comment-54b5c7116bb3f7a150092a82" target="_blank">Jeff Gundlach</a> reiterates the warning <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-oil-fall-could-lead-to-capex-collapse-doublelines-gundlach-2015-1?pundits_only=1&comments_page=1#comment-54b5c7116bb3f7a150092a82" target="_blank">here</a>: </span></span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 20px;">Gundlach, who correctly predicted government bond yields would plunge in 2014, said on his annual outlook webcast that 35 percent of Standard & Poor's capital expenditures comes from the energy sector and if oil remains around the $45-plus level or drops further, growth in capital expenditures could likely "fall to zero." </span><span style="font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 20px;">Gundlach, the co-founder of Los Angeles-based DoubleLine, which oversees $64 billion in assets, noted that "all of the job growth in the (economic) recovery can be attributed to the shale renaissance." He added that if low oil prices remain, the U.S. could see a wave of bankruptcies from some leveraged energy companies.</span><br />
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , "tahoma" , "verdana" , "arial" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.3199996948242px;">_</span>Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-1135718509148638772014-12-10T15:54:00.000-06:002014-12-22T15:06:45.477-06:00A Three Stage Gold Bull Market?<span style="font-family: Arial;">27 December 2005</span>, 16 April & 9 May 2010; 10 December 2014<br />
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<span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-style: italic;">This is a legacy article from 2005 which I though might be interesting to update and republish. Here, for your interest, is the original text, followed by today's update at the end:</span><br /><br />I was reading the most recent issue of Fortune Magazine last night, and what should be on the cover but bars of gold bullion? As you might imagine, Gold is now on Fortune’s top 25 list of recommended investments for 2006.<br /><br /><img alt="" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg56uBilv-LKkTaP-hRNEr69SLP2aMZdNYXYwvpH3qS-pKGYsixX-qgo9Flq1JufBX72w3t5ziDE4hNKrlnI7neuCjp2iMBx1J-oCCu3Nt7lK9H13hTkFzvJwljn8nnU1jwZJHp7g/s400/FORTUNE15306201126.jpg" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5232951210545422258" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center;" />There is presently much discussion among precious metals analysts as to whether we have entered “stage two” of gold’s bull market, which is expected to be marked by increased mainstream interest in gold investment. I will attempt to show here, in accord with one of my mentors, Ed Bugos (<a href="http://www.goldenbar.com/">http://www.goldenbar.com/</a></span><span style="font-family: arial;">), that despite increasing public interest, we remain in “stage one” of the gold bull market, though I believe stage two is fast approaching.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Bull markets are generally presumed to evolve through three stages. In the first stage, astute individuals who are alert to emerging trends often experience considerable gains while their area of investment interest remains "under the radar."<br /><br />In stage two, the general public and the professional investment community develop increasing interest in the emerging opportunities in a particular field of investment. In my understanding, stage two is typically characterized by increased risk, as a later stage pullback can erase the gains of new investors, and restore investment values to levels somewhere between the peak and the (typically lower) close of stage one. This is significant, as some early investors may sell out to new investors at or near the stage two peak, and new investors tend to become discouraged with the new bull market after a dramatic pullback has erased their gains.<br /><br />Strikingly, just at the point where the general public and the broader investment community (including the majority of professional advisors) become most disillusioned with the now maturing bull market, stage three typically begins. Once again, the early investors, who have a clearly thought-through rationale for their investment preferences, are those most likely to benefit by the third, and most dramatic bull market stage, which is one of parabolic growth over a relatively short period of time.<br /><br />I can think of two excellent illustrations of these three bull market stages. The first is the gold bull market of the 1970’s, which ended in a dramatic 1980 peak with gold values over $800 per ounce. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4846/1903/320/Aden_4129_c.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center;" /><br />NOTE: All three charts originated by Mary Ann and Pamela Aden (<a href="http://www.adenforecast.com/">http://www.adenforecast.com/</a>). Readers are advised to visit their excellent website for fuller understanding.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: arial;"><br />In stage one, gold values began drifting up from $35 per ounce, where they had been fixed by international accord through 1968. In 1971, President Nixon removed the US dollar from the gold standard, thereby fully opening up the value of gold to market pricing, which saw gold’s advance to about $120 per ounce in 1973. Stage one closed when gold pulled back modestly to about $100 later that year.<br /><br />Stage two of the gold bull market was associated with the return of private ownership of gold to US citizens in 1974. The gold price moved up rapidly, almost to $200 by 1975, drawing in increasing public interest. But, as is characteristic of bull markets in their second stage, gold’s price then pulled back to the $100 per ounce range, thereby erasing the gains of new investors, but preserving the gains of the early investors.<br /><br />As is typically the case in bull markets, this second stage collapse actually set the stage for the stage three parabolic move upwards in gold’s value to over $800 per ounce.<br /><br />By 1980, with gold nearing its peak values, market fundamentals changed, and the wisest of investors sold their holdings of gold in recognition of the changed fundamental situation. (The best known of these is Jim Sinclair: <a href="http://www.jsmineset.com/">http://www.jsmineset.com/</a>).</span><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: arial;">The particular development in 1980 was that Paul Volcker was appointed to chair the US Federal Reserve Board. Volcker steadily raised interest rates to wrestle inflation to the floor, ushering in a 21-year secular bear market in gold. Oblivious to these fundamental changes, many members of the public were by this point anticipating near-infinite gains in the value of gold, and steadily lost their gains (or their invested capital) due to holding their investments as the gold bull market at first precipitously, and then gradually, unwound in a 21-year downtrend, ending in 2001.<br /><br />My second example of a three stage bull market is the recently concluded “technology bubble.” The three stages are well-illustrated in a study of the shares of Dell Computer. Dell’s stage one accumulative phase continued through the end of 1992, at which point the price (in contemporary post-split terms) had risen from mere pennies to 78 cents a share, creating dramatic gains for early holders. However, stage one concluded with a pullback to 22 cents per share in 1993.<br /><br />This laid the foundation for the stage two rise to $1.54 per share in late 1995, essentially doubling the gains of early stage one investors, and increasing the holdings of early stage two investors sixfold.<br /><br />However, Dell’s share value then collapsed dramatically by over 50% to 72 cents per share that same year, essentially erasing all of the share value gains from the 1992 peak through to 1995 – a discouraging three-year period of non-performance.<br /><br />This wrenching late stage two pullback, once again, set the stage for a dramatic stage three bull market move for Dell. From its 1995 low of 72 cents, Dell never looked back until 2000, at which point it had attained a value of $59.69 per share, confirming the wisdom of the longer term investors who had correctly perceived (or luckily discovered) that Dell had entered its stage three bull market phase.<br /><br />Note that the shares of Dell are now unwinding, as did the value of gold after 1980, and that, in my opinion, Dell’s shares have much more to lose before its “secular” bear market is done. Dell had collapsed to the $16 range shortly after its 2000 bull market peak. It since recovered to a $42.57 high in late 2004, but in my view will be facing a long downward slope for many years to come as the investment community gradually recognizes that computer hardware has become a “commodity” in an emerging globalized economy (that is, fundamental factors have again brought an end to a dramatic and exciting bull market).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;">Looking back to the 1970’s gold bull market, and its subsequent 1980-2001 bear market decline, it strikes me that bear markets may be characterized by three stages as well. The bear market pullback may appear less dramatic in terms of the currency value of shares, due to the persistent eroding background interference of monetary inflation, which, by matter of government policy, steadily undermines the purchasing power of all money. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial;">In my view, the 1980-82 gold market decline would constitute stage one of the bear market, pulling the price back inside the long-term channel of gold’s appreciating value in terms of a steadily inflating currency; then 1982-93 constituted stage two, returning the price to the middle of the channel defining gold’s value in terms of an inflating currency; and 1993-2001 constitutes stage three of the bear market, bringing the price of gold to a 21 year channel bottom, and preparing the stage for the present gold bull market. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial;">Given that the length of gold’s recent (1980-2001) bear market was almost twice as long as its 12-year 1968-1980 bull market, I now suspect that we may be seeing a much longer and more gradual, but ultimately more powerful gold bull market than in the 1970’s.<br /><br />Chart analysis shows that we have not yet attained even gold’s long-term mid-channel values (presently in the $600 per ounce range), and there is still the move to the top of the channel to anticipate (stage two), as well as a possible parabolic move above the channel to culminate stage three of the present gold bull market.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;">The background to my speculation that the present gold bull market will be lengthier and more powerful than the 1970’s bull market is due in large part to the fact that the value of gold mining company shares steadily weakened against the value of gold from the date of the initial free market trading of gold (1968) through 1980.<br /><br />In the present gold bull market, gold mining company shares have appreciated strongly relative to the value of gold, obviously due to the fact that their relative value remains, even now, in a 36-year downtrend. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4846/1903/320/aden011905c.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center;" /> I find it difficult to countenance that the value of gold shares relative to gold will not break out of their present 36-year downtrend channel during the present gold bull market<br /><br />Any breakout in share values above this channel top (we are now very near this point) will almost certainly see an end-of-stage-one pullback to the upper line of the (gold share relative value) downtrend channel, possibly on a strong move in gold, though possibly also due to short-term renewed weakness in the gold mining shares due to a range of very real fundamental issues, including inflating production costs, political risk, and questions about demand for gold at higher prices (by the way, don't worry about this latter issue – if any currency were climbing in value, would people wish to own more or less of it?). </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe4xIUEWzFUqASoczuqDRf4uiLGwdSihq0uEHx59xq3wPigsOPBgg5nFQ0XYbZJrZ1Mu45Kyg41EjtYzJY6cvR4VLne_T02qO2B830RLn3-y0z_FipPg-zOTN1PFyEPx_RoNlbgQ/s1600/broken-boot-gold-mine1.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe4xIUEWzFUqASoczuqDRf4uiLGwdSihq0uEHx59xq3wPigsOPBgg5nFQ0XYbZJrZ1Mu45Kyg41EjtYzJY6cvR4VLne_T02qO2B830RLn3-y0z_FipPg-zOTN1PFyEPx_RoNlbgQ/s400/broken-boot-gold-mine1.jpg" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5460796123315686450" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 300px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" /></a><span style="font-family: arial;">On the upside, resistance to gold shares’ continued upward movement will be set by their 1993, 1973 and 1969 highs, respectively.) The time to sell gold shares and diversify into other investments would be at the time that the 1969 ratio high is reattained, very likely a decade or two in the future, if not longer. By then, equities, bonds or some other class of investment (perhaps real estate) would likely have returned to attractive values.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial;">As I am working with a conceptual model which indicates that the present bull market in gold and gold shares could last much longer than the 1970’s “flash in the pan” gold bull market, I suggest that we could anticipate 20 or even 30 more years of strength in gold mining shares relative to gold. Bear in mind that only 4 years have been logged so far. Of course, there will be many surges up and down along the way. But a 20 to 30-year buy and hold strategy in gold mining shares would seem to be a workable choice in this market, even allowing for the likelihood that there will be a substantial correction at the end of stage one (if it has not already concluded), and an even greater, perhaps 50% correction, at the close of stage two. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4846/1903/320/aden092204a.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center;" /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;">So if we are not yet in stage two in this bull market, where are we? I suggest that we probably are moving quite near to the end of stage one, which I expect to conclude with gold values in the $600 per ounce range. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial;">However, stage one is also likely to conclude with a greater correction in the price of gold than we have seen so far (that is, closer to a 20% - or greater - correction than to a 10% correction). The associated correction in gold shares may be more modest, and is more likely to follow the gold shares’ breakout from their 36-year downtrend than to precede that breakout move.<br /><br />Psychologically, while Fortune Magazine’s cover certainly signals awakening public interest in the gold market, there remain several missing pieces to that puzzle as well. To begin, while gold itself has qualified as a recommended investment for 2006, no gold or precious metal mining companies have yet been named. Secondly, the analysis offered by Andy Serwer really neglects the primary driver of gold’s appreciation, which is ongoing inflation in the quantity of money in all of the world’s major currencies. I believe that a fundamental grasp of gold’s role as a hedge against deterioration in the value of money will need to be more clearly understood during stage two of the gold bull market.<br /><br />I invite readers to share their thoughts and comments about gold’s three-stage bull market with me.<br /><br /><strong>10 August 2008:</strong> Also - be sure to read my more recent posts on the topics of <a href="http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/search/label/precious%20metals">precious metals</a> and <a href="http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/search/label/secular%20trends">secular trends</a>, starting here: "<a href="http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/2007/07/golds-1980-high-think-5000-per-ounce.html">Gold's 1980 High – Think $5000 - No $6000 - per Ounce</a>."</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial;"><strong>16 April 2010:</strong> I thought this topic was important enough to revisit 5 years later. Though some details may be off to some degree (particularly my prediction that stage one would run no higher than $600 or so), the scenario I painted in 2005 has more or less come to pass. In my view, the 34% pullback in the gold price in October 2008 (from $1033.90 to $681.00) constituted the end of stage one in the present 3-stage gold bull market. The recovery in the gold price from</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> this level since that time appears to constitute the early era of stage two, and that is where we are now.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiouWMNXw18nX-c6w2yPhCZVrSULV6wgpgP32xI5hRmAT3piFII0VlTCY8ufIEMa5vJmsydqWX0HMOukBk3dOUQCBbY2FxgSzNn_4eUf_y9c1aJzenwMN8pN_uiIBHdur4xDAUt8Q/s1600/Gold_primary_correction_2008.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiouWMNXw18nX-c6w2yPhCZVrSULV6wgpgP32xI5hRmAT3piFII0VlTCY8ufIEMa5vJmsydqWX0HMOukBk3dOUQCBbY2FxgSzNn_4eUf_y9c1aJzenwMN8pN_uiIBHdur4xDAUt8Q/s400/Gold_primary_correction_2008.png" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5460793078248954450" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 314px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" /></a><span style="font-family: arial;">Where then will stage two end? <a href="http://www.adenforecast.com/index.php">Pamela and Mary Anne Aden </a>have recently proposed that the gold price is likely to see a level over $2000, perhaps as high as $3000, by February 2012 or so.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial;">This prediction is based on a pattern of gold prices reaching peaks 11 years following major lows. The assumption is that a large pullback would follow that interim high - and then the fabled stage three would launch from the second primary pullback low.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBbXvJZ4GESaTUXUeVOfvdOg0BptFINqQkXu4iEBXbjFHPIylDhWterv2Y8q3ptKBCVKgR0VsWwvpruLVl28vAhrH-5OSG0t-k8W98HacUrwcyt73JrTlMW5nDOOodoVt0PVFtXw/s1600/Gold_2001-2010_bull_to_date.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBbXvJZ4GESaTUXUeVOfvdOg0BptFINqQkXu4iEBXbjFHPIylDhWterv2Y8q3ptKBCVKgR0VsWwvpruLVl28vAhrH-5OSG0t-k8W98HacUrwcyt73JrTlMW5nDOOodoVt0PVFtXw/s400/Gold_2001-2010_bull_to_date.png" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5460794019291865042" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 314px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" /></a><span style="font-family: arial;">Gold analysts generally expect stage three to be a "bubble" stage, during which the gold price will rise to unprecedented levels in an atmosphere of general panic. I have <a href="http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/2007/07/golds-1980-high-think-5000-per-ounce.html">blogged earlier </a>that the gold price can easily run to a level of <a href="http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/2007/07/golds-1980-high-think-5000-per-ounce.html">$6000 or higher</a>, depending on what happens with <a href="http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/2010/04/renegonomics.html">inflation</a>, which of course now appears to be <a href="http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/2010/04/renegonomics.html">picking up steam</a>.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgKNzGvE3I9kiWpNqK9qaaRZxVSocGPWld0T2Cxg9AJ9Zhsb0fmEB2nz4hmU6O4v8Dw2wCOoaqprkP5XCUMDTPu0xHcOiv3oqw3pgj6JiB2Kq-oax_eDpeePsYXqFmgkMC3ibtYw/s1600/saupload_goldbull.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgKNzGvE3I9kiWpNqK9qaaRZxVSocGPWld0T2Cxg9AJ9Zhsb0fmEB2nz4hmU6O4v8Dw2wCOoaqprkP5XCUMDTPu0xHcOiv3oqw3pgj6JiB2Kq-oax_eDpeePsYXqFmgkMC3ibtYw/s400/saupload_goldbull.jpg" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5467661697006371026" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 292px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" /></a>As the chart above shows (comparing gold to previous well-established investment bubbles), there is no detectable "bubble" action in the price of gold at all so far, so it is not difficult to envision how the gold bull market could easily extend for an additional decade or so from here.<br />
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<span style="font-family: arial;">Speaking in broad brush terms, if stage two wraps up with a primary correction (that is, a major pullback) in say 2012 or 2013, then the stage three bubble high will occur some years after that. We are now of course speaking very speculatively. But if the Adens are correct in describing an 11-year pattern in gold price highs, then the bubble peak might possibly occur 11 years following the October 2008 low, that is, somewhere near the year 2019. This speculation thus projects that the present gold bull market will run approximately 18 years from 2001 through 2019 or so.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdBA_xwMdzK2Ffi2-uEIWgPfCS7xUZ951IppCMg9R7ZHiGHqkGoFTi0njdRSM6rpa9mdqDmX7lxPSK1JaiPcGhfN9093_-R_Eyrf1JQuHBkarjTr-bayd1cHsit8aee-ohP2HpUQ/s1600/jim_rogers_1030.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdBA_xwMdzK2Ffi2-uEIWgPfCS7xUZ951IppCMg9R7ZHiGHqkGoFTi0njdRSM6rpa9mdqDmX7lxPSK1JaiPcGhfN9093_-R_Eyrf1JQuHBkarjTr-bayd1cHsit8aee-ohP2HpUQ/s400/jim_rogers_1030.jpg" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5460795577387484706" style="cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 185px; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; width: 157px;" /></a><span style="font-family: arial;">Interestingly, drawing on a <a href="http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Commodities-will-outshine-stocks-Jim-Rogers-26159-3-1.html">separate source</a>, Jim Rogers has recently reminded his followers that "</span>previous commodity bull markets averaged about <a href="http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Commodities-will-outshine-stocks-Jim-Rogers-26159-3-1.html">17 to 18 years </a>in length and experienced very large percentage increases." That is, the speculation that stage three of the present gold bull market might run approximately to the year 2019 is well-grounded in history.<br />
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If I have been wrong anywhere so far in my original 2005 speculations about the 3-stage gold bull market, it has been in my original assumption that gold stocks would begin to leverage the gold price early in the process.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC52MuMGgCYx6Q48u_oE_td3VNOIK99JrDeJ1_c9asS9J7t0HhL9VeDt7QP1LSe6B9QX3EcXqujLVB7BP-rHYw-8UlF7NLGADEUISYjYkogcsyibPnGPTaoJNBQweoOaEPzftcGg/s1600/HUI-GOLD_2001-2010.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC52MuMGgCYx6Q48u_oE_td3VNOIK99JrDeJ1_c9asS9J7t0HhL9VeDt7QP1LSe6B9QX3EcXqujLVB7BP-rHYw-8UlF7NLGADEUISYjYkogcsyibPnGPTaoJNBQweoOaEPzftcGg/s400/HUI-GOLD_2001-2010.png" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5460794410803296594" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 314px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" /></a>In fact, gold stocks well outperformed gold from 2001-2003, and since that time (now almost 7 years), have dramatically underperformed gold itself, as can be seen in the chart above (and the HUI index is the best-performing of the alternative gold stock indices!).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_vpKjzk7k1rAVB07oxPqOniP5Izyv8p9c1apy_8vpICvbG2SK1j4fRUVz2yQa2XYj5puDD7U08ul6-u2wmx6eAp170QPn265eVsAjMl9vB5XuZmEFHAuzeRA5G7hESiriJ4EJpw/s1600/headframe.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_vpKjzk7k1rAVB07oxPqOniP5Izyv8p9c1apy_8vpICvbG2SK1j4fRUVz2yQa2XYj5puDD7U08ul6-u2wmx6eAp170QPn265eVsAjMl9vB5XuZmEFHAuzeRA5G7hESiriJ4EJpw/s400/headframe.jpg" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5460801620722102546" style="cursor: pointer; display: block; height: 300px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 400px;" /></a>If gold stock investors (I am one) can take any solace, then it is in the current positive trend in the price of gold stocks relative to gold since October 2008, as can be seen in the same chart. Should gold stocks continue their more recent pattern, then it is possible that we could see a new high in the HUI:Gold ratio by February 2012 or so. Given that gold exploration and mining companies (1) own gold in the ground at a substantial discount to the market price of gold itself, and (2) have established their ability to get it out of the ground efficiently, that would in fact be a rational outcome, though as all investors know, markets are under no requirement whatsoever to perform in a rational manner at any time!<br />
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(The photo above is of the new headframe at the Goldcorp Red Lake Gold Mine, in which my wife and I are investors.)<br />
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<strong style="font-family: arial;">10 December 2014:</strong><span style="font-family: arial;"> I thought it might be worth commenting, this article has basically been proven correct, though the winding down of the stage two phase of the gold bull market has emerged as far more brutal and extended than I had imagined, even in my most recent previous post, in 2010. As it turns out, gold peaked at stage two in September 2011 at about $1930 per ounce, and there have since been four apparent bottoms, the most recent in the $1130 range in early November 2014. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjURt5HLeAd9vQrYKp626dQ2A3wG2CApjfF7UbyVIWRwPsBNaSnaWVgUaOVoOGEr7Nu232OjHa891gZ6aSxFZBhby_OPgGu__gkMnr7vgrvAAKw_HnNA54pPaq2PatFrp-gRLNt-A/s1600/GOLD+10+DEC+14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjURt5HLeAd9vQrYKp626dQ2A3wG2CApjfF7UbyVIWRwPsBNaSnaWVgUaOVoOGEr7Nu232OjHa891gZ6aSxFZBhby_OPgGu__gkMnr7vgrvAAKw_HnNA54pPaq2PatFrp-gRLNt-A/s1600/GOLD+10+DEC+14.png" height="251" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial;">The recent bottom can be seen here (Stockcharts' daily closing gold prices are approximate):</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAGLp2wmmHC9XXoH_gKCE1wlJgLgfdmFaVbwuit2vn009-xkCtoC4ObKUA6Jc5420fp9jXEV9lMAzyCqSt97YKh2f99N4SNZC7NgxFs_ungxoHgbpEky6skeDPSXgW3dlPjzAwFw/s1600/GOLD+ST+10+DEC+14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAGLp2wmmHC9XXoH_gKCE1wlJgLgfdmFaVbwuit2vn009-xkCtoC4ObKUA6Jc5420fp9jXEV9lMAzyCqSt97YKh2f99N4SNZC7NgxFs_ungxoHgbpEky6skeDPSXgW3dlPjzAwFw/s1600/GOLD+ST+10+DEC+14.png" height="251" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial;">Referring to the above article, a more extended and brutal downturn presages a stronger and longer rally back the other way (and higher) --- whenever it starts. (Timing is the most unknowable factor in the investing world, or "everybody" would win.) </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial;">As has often been discussed here, gold mining stocks amplify the movements of gold in both directions, and the present downturn has been no exception. As you can see, gold mining stocks, as represented by the now "old hat" HUI Gold Bugs Index, have been slammed for over three years, and we're still searching for the bottom. I will just comment that this kind of (primary) correction cleans out ALL the nonbelievers, and even quite a few of the "faithful!" It has been horribly ugly and longlasting --- though, of course, that is what downturns are supposed to be, especially "primary corrections," as their function in the market is to clear out "weak hands," and thus to position holders for longer-term gains at very low entry prices. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUvPlMY9OabnmCDZKcGjZ897GU1C6QFF-5mztqz4R6Ba7YQoiKMB_B5JHguQENkQn4bnQR2FHPP70Q9bsFQfUQUKemqLlWUOu30A1263bV7BM558J4DN1D1X4HcD172EW6KnhXMQ/s1600/HUI+10+DEC+14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUvPlMY9OabnmCDZKcGjZ897GU1C6QFF-5mztqz4R6Ba7YQoiKMB_B5JHguQENkQn4bnQR2FHPP70Q9bsFQfUQUKemqLlWUOu30A1263bV7BM558J4DN1D1X4HcD172EW6KnhXMQ/s1600/HUI+10+DEC+14.png" height="251" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial;">Even worse is the HUI:Gold ratio (the value of gold mining stocks relative to gold), as we have now revisited (and fallen slightly under) the absurdly low levels of the year 2000, prior to the beginning of the present 13-14 year gold bull market. It's as though the price of gold had not changed since the year 2000 (when it was in the $250/ounce range), though, more precisely, it's as though gold mining is no better a business at $1200 gold than it was at $250 gold 13 years ago, which is a little bit of a ludicrous concept (though mining costs have certainly sustained severe inflation during that period). </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE1A_B1vKaC6nSL0zzioyqrp5WWOghUUb70b69619x7wgSdCwTsA7RL4TQMWxdIEoRb3_FP7-J9HQr-fvpT0UkP8bWQATDjKmkAF_V7JCZHdwcqcEHGoTrCO6s729GPR_ScbyHBA/s1600/HUI-GOLD+10+DEC+14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE1A_B1vKaC6nSL0zzioyqrp5WWOghUUb70b69619x7wgSdCwTsA7RL4TQMWxdIEoRb3_FP7-J9HQr-fvpT0UkP8bWQATDjKmkAF_V7JCZHdwcqcEHGoTrCO6s729GPR_ScbyHBA/s1600/HUI-GOLD+10+DEC+14.png" height="238" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial;">Given how lengthy the stages of the current gold bull market have proven to be (the previous one in the 70s lasted only 8-11 years), I am now rethinking whether 2018-19 (that date is speculative guesswork, by the way) is likely to be "the top," or just another way station. For example, bonds have remained in a multi-decade bull market (which is now likely to end reasonably soon), and my present guess is that we're going to see something more like that in gold now... that is, continuing gains for decades to come, though of course, as in all markets, with surprises (both ways) and ample volatility to keep shaking out the uncommitted. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial;">Bear in mind, the gold price rises when real interest rates are negative, and when the global macroeconomic picture is unfavourable, due to such issues as excessive debt, monetary inflation, poor government leadership, and so on. I honestly don't see how that problem gets fixed by 2018-19. It's probably going to take much, much longer than that... and gold should sustain its appreciating trend throughout that period!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: arial;">So, what can I say, but "hold on for the ride!"</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqastDABao8OBmkXCUYEQzAgox6wOI4XjJxBJK1fR86gnkFlV445klGyUaRpQP5XwGDhe6If65h470TXZnylhJq1iXbj2VkYL5NOzhEVOb31J3s9h_4WCoXug3cPAoWLHn5y1QMg/s1600/merry+christmas.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqastDABao8OBmkXCUYEQzAgox6wOI4XjJxBJK1fR86gnkFlV445klGyUaRpQP5XwGDhe6If65h470TXZnylhJq1iXbj2VkYL5NOzhEVOb31J3s9h_4WCoXug3cPAoWLHn5y1QMg/s1600/merry+christmas.jpg" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: arial;">_</span>Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19263903.post-16841841955886082012014-09-08T21:04:00.000-05:002016-03-07T13:29:06.275-06:00How Long Can the Amazon.com Business Model Last?8 September 2014<br />
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<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/author/jillian-donfro" target="_blank">Jillian D'Onfro</a> at Business Insider has just written a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/amazons-new-competiton-2014-9?pundits_only=1&comments_page=1#comment-540e5a0969bedd456bd59130" target="_blank">thoughtful analysis of the Amazon.com business model</a>. If you follow e-commerce at all, then you know that Amazon plays to maximize market share, slash margins, and make customers happy.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5EJMVi-dRLVqXyAvrKF0u2BFvwr7ghTInb6alxkztLs9wGIx4PIYXhvZd2Bf5ACyZT-0NhQjHK-vNuWhHj5YAImLE0Wt9_Z8Bg3SrSkPIhLk-n6A_jin7f7PDtB25dpoEP9SKLg/s1600/Amazon+cart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5EJMVi-dRLVqXyAvrKF0u2BFvwr7ghTInb6alxkztLs9wGIx4PIYXhvZd2Bf5ACyZT-0NhQjHK-vNuWhHj5YAImLE0Wt9_Z8Bg3SrSkPIhLk-n6A_jin7f7PDtB25dpoEP9SKLg/s1600/Amazon+cart.jpg" /></a></div>
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I read this article and the reader comments carefully, because I am a
core Amazon customer. I'm not into streaming media, etc., but I live in a small
town in Canada where I would have to travel hundreds – or thousands – of miles
to find even slightly specialized items. 30-40 years ago, I was ordering odds
and ends at the local small-town Sears outlet (we still have one). But Amazon
is for sure the new Sears if you live in a small town. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Now I honestly don't see how Amazon can stay a going concern
based on its present policies, but everything they do is by all means customer
friendly. I have the Amazon card, etc. (No need for Prime, however, which isn't
so great in Canada, anyway). <o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC8QW1gjp_C4AlJDc9OHM_4d5Wbhso3Rn_dJwWfJr690nw1pTU1SXNpZWqEddO6qASbV1aWtVlLNHSSuqDtPTjm9Tl-qbktHxH9jUI_RR83a14cqY-0B-F2mHjGyojIN7kxIPf0Q/s1600/amazon-prime-air.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC8QW1gjp_C4AlJDc9OHM_4d5Wbhso3Rn_dJwWfJr690nw1pTU1SXNpZWqEddO6qASbV1aWtVlLNHSSuqDtPTjm9Tl-qbktHxH9jUI_RR83a14cqY-0B-F2mHjGyojIN7kxIPf0Q/s1600/amazon-prime-air.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Let me share just one example of a surely non-sustainable
business practice. I basically outfitted my home gym at Amazon (though I bought
my weight sets years ago, in Winnipeg, about 150 miles away). So, I order a
Ringside 100-pound heavy bag from Amazon.ca for maybe $139, and the shipping is
listed at maybe $270, but it's eligible for free super saver shipping. I mean,
the delivery guys had to haul it to my house and bring it up the stairs to my
door (something I would have had to do if I'd made the purchase at a store). So
for no shipping charge, I have this 100-pound bag waiting for me at my door. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB8K5qH_x2iUosQldUDVvC3MNdJAnBwGVVUbG8of8bFvRO6oNDT9TvDTruhUmAmNUv0JUHHom8Y_fDvJTNBZwoYYcUQzGMQxaLFdg5sgfbCkHwsF17Alzj4RdPyt-6-V_TA_EZDg/s1600/ringside-powerhide-heavy-bag-filled-65lbs.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB8K5qH_x2iUosQldUDVvC3MNdJAnBwGVVUbG8of8bFvRO6oNDT9TvDTruhUmAmNUv0JUHHom8Y_fDvJTNBZwoYYcUQzGMQxaLFdg5sgfbCkHwsF17Alzj4RdPyt-6-V_TA_EZDg/s1600/ringside-powerhide-heavy-bag-filled-65lbs.jpeg" width="119" /></a></div>
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Logic insists that this cannot last. But yes, I am trying to
buy everything I could possibly ever need now, because I can't see Amazon still
delivering hundred-pound packages for free, 5 or 10 years down the road! But
for consumers, there has been nothing better. <o:p></o:p></div>
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And, to do a business analysis, Amazon clearly has one
competitive advantage, which is the massive number of partners. (The local
competitor is Indigo.com, which is a home-grown Canadian former bookstore chain
turned e-tailer, but, “no competition.”)<br />
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In recent years, it has indeed gotten easier to search
Amazon than Google, if the intention is to make a purchase. Given that AMZN has
a massive market cap, and Sears is on death's door, it has crossed my mind that
Amazon might want to buy up Sears just to get their distribution system, and
the Kenmore brand name may or may not help --- not that important. But if I had
to drive the one-mile trip to the Sears distribution centre to pick up my
Amazon order (still with free shipping), I would not be complaining. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLdOC6-Cdrrj-6ykKir21XzRFOI40u19nPLxMwhp3mxed_AiryeDDpxoG0wmP7AFOPRtIXf2MDQIRp5JbSfEou5005_uXZQR8ZQNfSHVd7ce8y02X9cC6ozVcXJ1Bi0blS17SCtw/s1600/Sears_Outlet_Store_9411.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLdOC6-Cdrrj-6ykKir21XzRFOI40u19nPLxMwhp3mxed_AiryeDDpxoG0wmP7AFOPRtIXf2MDQIRp5JbSfEou5005_uXZQR8ZQNfSHVd7ce8y02X9cC6ozVcXJ1Bi0blS17SCtw/s1600/Sears_Outlet_Store_9411.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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This
advantage really shows up in Canada, where, historically, no retailer has ever
given any customer anything for free. Canadians are used to paying top dollar for services in
most categories, and that included shipping, until Amazon.ca showed up. (<i>Sears</i> usually had the best delivery
deal, before Amazon arrived on the scene – but they would not deliver a 100-pound item to
your door for free --- you still had to go to the outlet yourself, and pick up the new washer and dryer, snowblower, or what have you, possibly with the van you had borrowed from your neighbour!)</div>
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So, I certainly wish Amazon well, but I'm buying all the heavy stuff now!<br />
_<o:p></o:p></div>
Laurence Hunthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.com0