Sunday, October 24, 2010

An Answer to a Reader Question

24 October 2010

Some regular readers may have noticed I've been too busy to post. Here is a recent reader question, followed by my answer....

Anonymous said...

Hey Laurence,

We miss your sharp analysis of the Markets...Where are you? Don't give up just yet...Please. It ain't pretty going forward it seems....!!!

24 October, 2010 8:49:00 AM CDT

Laurence Hunt said:

No problem! I've been setting up a new home-office, and have had no free time since July. Short take on the gold market: I expect some consolidation here, but given seasonal, technical and macroeconomic factors, gold can still move higher. (QE II is only a symptom of the problem - which in short is a vicious cycle of capital misallocation and unsustainable debt - and is of little importance in itself. The bills are never going to be paid in "real" money!) As for gold stocks, they have already broken out to new highs and are testing their new levels right now. Only one toe is in the water here, so to speak. There is certainly no mania - and we are the better part of a decade away from any "bubble" in precious metals. Timing is always a mystery to me, so I don't know how long any retrenchment will last. I've taken out perhaps 10-15% in cash, but am otherwise still invested in gold and silver shares (with a bit in general mining, specifically BHP Billiton, about which I have posted in the past. Our largest positions are in ATAC Resources (due to its explosive appreciation), Goldcorp and Franco Nevada (I sold Silver Wheaton too soon, giving away my firmer confidence in gold). I am presently looking at Gold Resource, Andean American Gold and Minera Andes Warrants. I think that about sums it up.

24 October, 2010 1:25:00 PM CDT